Nw Severe Flooding Thread - 19Th Nov Onwards.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi pyrotech,

I noticed that earlier too but it looks like the really moist airflow will only be in situ for a maximum of 12 hours say, rather than 36/48 hour event that the Lake District and other parts of the west endured in the last couple of days.

Still another couple of inches rainfall possible, I would've thought.

Regards,

Tom

Edited November 20, 2009 by TomSE20

[pyrotech]

Hi pyrotech,

I noticed that earlier too but it looks like the really moist airflow will only be in situ for a maximum of 12 hours say, rather than 36/48 hour event that the Lake District and other parts of the west endured in the last couple of days.

Still another couple of inches rainfall possible, I would've thought.

Regards,

Tom

so much similarity with the high over europe and few days away, not so sure this will not do similar move as last one, seems pretty quick to transit and i can see the jet is forecast to be a little further south then but i am not convinced that gfs has got this one right. I hope they have and its just me.

[Polarlow]

Could this rain event have been the remnants of Hurricane Ida ?

[Terminal Moraine]

Check out this data, provided by Brampton Weather Station. It shows the wettest individual months and locations within Cumbria. Staggering figures, but they also show quite how wet it's been over the past few days in comparison.

http://www.bramptonw...al1978-2008.pdf

I'd heard about the policeman, but not the others. Hope it's wrong on all counts.

That's a mightily interesting list, OON. I'd thought, until I read that, that the largest monthly rainfall total in the U.K was still the 56.64" ( 1436.1mm ) recorded at Lyn Lydaw, Snowdon in October 1909 but I now find that this has been exceeded on no less than 8 occasions.

Seathwaite is astonishingly wet for a relatively low level site but Honister Pass is almost in its own league.

I think the Met' Office should pay me to live there and keep a daily record.

[Interitus]

That's a mightily interesting list, OON. I'd thought, until I read that, that the largest monthly rainfall total in the U.K was still the 56.64" ( 1436.1mm ) recorded at Lyn Lydaw, Snowdon in October 1909 but I now find that this has been exceeded on no less than 8 occasions.

Seathwaite is astonishingly wet for a relatively low level site but Honister Pass is almost in its own league.

I think the Met' Office should pay me to live there and keep a daily record.

Impressive rainfall totals, not forgetting that also within 3km of Seathwaite is Sprinkling Tarn which holds the annual record of 6527mm. Basically the moisture funnels up the southwest-northeast aligned Wasdale and Eskdale and is forced over the highest England's highest massif including Scafell, and these rain gauge locations are in the direct lee of this.

However, without wishing to diminish the impact of the disaster, because of the relatively localised nature and frequency of high precipitation, the area is more capable with dealing with such high levels of runoff than most other areas of the country. Their normal amounts would cause flooding problems in many other areas, whilst this amount would be devastating.

Also I suspect that somewhere in the northwest highlands of Scotland may well have been wetter than this on occasion.

[Tom Lynch]

That's a mightily interesting list, OON. I'd thought, until I read that, that the largest monthly rainfall total in the U.K was still the 56.64" ( 1436.1mm ) recorded at Lyn Lydaw, Snowdon in October 1909 but I now find that this has been exceeded on no less than 8 occasions.

Seathwaite is astonishingly wet for a relatively low level site but Honister Pass is almost in its own league.

I think the Met' Office should pay me to live there and keep a daily record.

I think that, I know that I am in the correct place ATM . My family and house are ok. One of our depots is still under water and my boss had to be rescued by lifeboat, she lives in Cockermouth. The river Kent in Kendal , my home town burst its banks. I am sat here on the west coast of France and about to join the storms club.

Sad about any loss of life in Cumbria. I did hear about the policeman , I think that he was trying to save a family.

Tom

[Iceni]

Apparently, there was some move to dredge the river bed where it ran through Cockermouth last year to a depth of a further 10', but it was turned down on environmental grounds as it's an Atlantic Salmon spawning ground and the salmon are a protected species. Might have made all the difference for some properties.

But where there's muck there's brass… in our own village they are considering new houses built up the lane on green fields from established houses where the lane already floods occasionally in several places. This is bound to affect the amount of water run off and make the situation worse for them (their toilets back up as the sewage works is inadequate), but the powers that be won't listen and nothing's proposed to tackle the drainage or sewage works.

[Terminal Moraine]

It also occurred to me; what were the dynamics of the meteorological situation which caused this rainfall event to eclipse all others in what is, after all, one of the wettest areas of Britain?

Looking through old volumes of 'British Rainfall' there are literally dozens of accounts of persistent heavy orographic rainfall affecting not only the Lakes but also north and south Wales and western Scotland. Daily rainfall amounts of up to 100mm are commonplace and there are quite a number between 100 and 200mm but this event seems to be in a different league altogether.

I would have thought from all those conveyor belt south westerly situations in the last 100 odd years there must have been a number with semi stationary fronts over 48 hours or more, so why was this one so much more intense than its predecessors?

I look forward to the detailed analysis in 'Weather' in a few months time.

[Supercell]

Where can I find the official rainfall totals ? I have seen them in newpapers, but to know for sure that somewhere has recorded the highest 24 hr rainfall ever is quite something !

314.4mm

[Osbourne One-Nil]

But where there's muck there's brass… in our own village they are considering new houses built up the lane on green fields from established houses where the lane already floods occasionally in several places. This is bound to affect the amount of water run off and make the situation worse for them (their toilets back up as the sewage works is inadequate), but the powers that be won't listen and nothing's proposed to tackle the drainage or sewage works.

I think we need to be clear though that what you describe has not caused what happened in Cockermouth. Cockermouth flooded because of truly exceptional rainfall, and it flooded in an area where buildings have been for hundreds of years. Edited November 21, 2009 by Osbourne One-Nil

[Just Before Dawn]

Apparently, there was some move to dredge the river bed where it ran through Cockermouth last year to a depth of a further 10', but it was turned down on environmental grounds as it's an Atlantic Salmon spawning ground and the salmon are a protected species. Might have made all the difference for some properties.

Well that's plain wrong - a ten foot dredge in a fresh water river would probably penetrate it's hard rock substrate. There's a lot more silt substrate in tidal rivers (of which the Derwent is at Cockermouth, I think), but atlantic salmon don't spawn in saline water so that simply wouldn't be the case. I know of some dredging in the Humber and parts of the outer Thames that dredge down ten feet, but in a river the size of the Derwent? Do they get 15000 tone bulk ore carriers in Cockermouth Harbour? With the volume of water coming down that river, virtually all the sediment on the river bed would have been scoured out way before the water began to rise dangerously. In flood risk management terms - water doesn't generally stop because of mud or silt. It generally stops because of something we've put there.

We live on a dynamic planet and whilst I have sympathy and can understand the need for people affected to need to find someone to blame, (and sometimes there is) sometimes you have to accept that extraordinary events do happen and it is impossible (or at least expensive out of all comparison to the benefits) to protect people from them. Salmon or no salmon.

Edited November 21, 2009 by Just Before Dawn

[johnholmes]

Where can I find the official rainfall totals ? I have seen them in newpapers, but to know for sure that somewhere has recorded the highest 24 hr rainfall ever is quite something !

314.4mm

the Met O website has a link into a news release they did which has a lot of rainfall data in that?

It also occurred to me; what were the dynamics of the meteorological situation which caused this rainfall event to eclipse all others in what is, after all, one of the wettest areas of Britain?

Looking through old volumes of 'British Rainfall' there are literally dozens of accounts of persistent heavy orographic rainfall affecting not only the Lakes but also north and south Wales and western Scotland. Daily rainfall amounts of up to 100mm are commonplace and there are quite a number between 100 and 200mm but this event seems to be in a different league altogether.

I would have thought from all those conveyor belt south westerly situations in the last 100 odd years there must have been a number with semi stationary fronts over 48 hours or more, so why was this one so much more intense than its predecessors?

I look forward to the detailed analysis in 'Weather' in a few months time.

I suspect you, I, and many others do just that TM.

I cannot recall anything in the 60-early 80's when I worked with NWWA(North West Water Authority) on the early post empirical forecasting/radar ideas of anything quite with as high rainfall totals as this gave.

Yes, the conveyor belt idea for S-SW facing hill slopes, and with particular regard to the Lake District has been worked with for decades.

Maybe if you approach UK Met O Library or R Met Soc, they might be able to point you to any such instances and to the work done at Preston the Manchester Met Offices with NWWA?

Failing that then we have to wait for what may well be a joint paper by the Environment Agancy and a senior forecaster from UK Met.

[The PIT]

Got to admit I'm now getting confused. According to the Met office release the highest 24 hr result was 107mm where is this 314mm 24hr coming from??? The highest 3 day total is 196.8mm.

Can someone give me a link to the 314mm offical jobby.

[CardiffStorm]

Got to admit I'm now getting confused. According to the Met office release the highest 24 hr result was 107mm where is this 314mm 24hr coming from??? The highest 3 day total is 196.8mm.

Can someone give me a link to the 314mm offical jobby.

Im also having this problem. On Sky and BBC news they're constantly saying this has been record rainfall but I cant find the stats anywhere, certainly not on the MetO site.

Also, noticed a post a bit earlier saying the Sky News' coverage has been brilliant and I cant agree more, they seem to have the best interviews and set up camera in the best places, it really has been priority for them but the BBC doesnt seem as interested. And im not usually a fan of Sky News.

Edited November 21, 2009 by jamo_s

[tinybill]

well looking at the radar places which are geting the rain at the moment dont need it!!!

[wbechelli]

Just to see hello to the forum.

I've popped over from TWO where I've just posted a heap of pictures of the flooding around Workington.

As the crow flies I'm around quarter of a mile from the River Derwent, but fortuntely around 30m higher usually!

Just got power back after two days off. If you want to see them I'll try to do some cunning copying and pasting, otherwise if you've registered at TWO you can go and haev a look over there now.

Bill

[Polar Bear]

Don't build property near two main rivers - when swollen with record amounts of rainfall - we all see what happens.

kind of Mondy,bit most of these buildings and settlements have been there a very long time...before weather records or flood areas were ever mapped..

The lesson learnt is one we all know is that dont underestimate the power of mother nature..

[johnholmes]

posted into my blog

a quick preliminary look and its looking, shall I say, 'not good', either over the weekend or next week, for both rainfall and wind.

worst for Lakes-SW+W Scotland yet again but other western areas also affected.

I suspect it will need another input into the Front Page and a re issue of our alert to try and get across the seriousness of how this seems to be developing.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

God - it must be so miserable for those badly affected. It's chucking it down here this afternoon with 9mm already, bringing the monthly total so far to 321mm.

[Mondy]

Unfortunately, there is much more rain to come for those areas already affected (Cumbria & SW Scotland) during the weekend and well into next week.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

The only glimmer of light might be that these areas are used to very heavy winter rainfall and it rarely causes a problem. Hopefully, therefore, the biggest impact it will have is hampering the clear-up, rather than causing fresh damage.

[johnholmes]

one hopes so OON and I suspect you may be correct.

[dogs32]

WOW thats sound's not good J.H..

didnt realise it could get bad again..

Will watch this week end in detail

Edited November 21, 2009 by dogs32

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The signals ahead under solar and lunar forcing does not bear good news. This episode has happened exactly on cue with New moon enhancement, and more to come this month BUT December will offer little help. Another very dodgy period from say 6th Dec building to a stormy mid month. It seems that jet is edging more south and so this means one thing, storm track right on collision for the UK. I'll post a December watch period/LRF like I did for Nov.....more detail than the winter LRF. Batten down the hatches/hold on to your hats.

BFTP

[PersianPaladin]

Truly terrifying to be in Cockermouth in the last 24 hours or so.

Edited November 21, 2009 by PersianPaladin