Annual Cet - 2010

[Stu_London]

Only one way to find out

FIGHT!!!

10.45C is my take on things

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Stab in the dark, with my mind on the continued solar minimum... 9.87

[Don]

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that 2010 could well be a scorcher.

10.7C

Hope I'm very wrong!

[kold weather]

I suspect 2010 could be quite warm overall, I suspect something around 10.5.

[stewfox]

Stab in the dark, with my mind on the continued solar minimum... 9.87

We have a figure of 9.87 that doesn't bode well for global warming sorry climate change sorry 'we don't know but the back ground variables are not playing ball change'.

If I add June 1950 to the total and fudge the evidence (delete the e-mail of course) I come to 10.87.

Daily Mail I can see it now 3^rd January 2010

WE ARE ON FOR THE HOTTEST WARMEST GLOBAL YEAR EVER EVER

[Fozfoster]

A BIG 10.4c

[DAVID SNOW]

9.5.

[SteveB]

9.92c, not overly cold, but trending in the right direction.

[memories of 63]

I'll go for 10 dead

[Optimus Prime]

I'll go for 10 dead

You're no Einstein lol.

10.73c.

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

m gunu go for a more Certain prediction somewhere between 7 and 13, unless there's some kind of climate catastrope.

okay i guess 10.2C.

[Stargazer]

Don't see any obvious sign of major cooling next year - my wild random guess is 10.33.

[Guest]

10.4 as Ironside used to say !

[The watcher]

Is this up to 2010 (ie 2009 overall CET) or the year 2010?

Couldn't see this thread surviving for another year.

But anyway, my guess would be 10.68c

10 because its the usual start, .6 for my daughters date of birth (6th) and the .08 for her month of Birth (August).

[Weather-history]

10.47

[LomondSnowstorm]

9.94C

[Typhoon John]

10.23

Will probably be quite warm with heat from the Nino lasting most of the year.

[Iceberg]

11.12

If I add in the effect of the El Nino I get 11.13 then take away the effect of the solar minimum I get my estimate.

[Stu_London]

11.12

If I add in the effect of the El Nino I get 11.13 then take away the effect of the solar minimum I get my estimate.

As someone who has a degree of respect for your postings in a number of threads across the forum, I would be interested to hear your thoughts on why a deep solar minimum would have such a mimimal effect on the 2010 CET.

Are you of the opinion that solar forcing doesn't matter, that the effects of a deep period of solar inactivity (which may or may not be the case) would not manifest themselves into the earth climate yet, or do you have some other theory.

I post in the Solar thread would be best to avoid going OT.

[Mr Maunder]

I expect a year that results in much the same temperature outcome as 2009.

The current moderate to strong El Nino should have an effect lasting through spring, but this should dissipate by the middle of the year. In the second half we could be looking at a neutral ENSO as we move towards the next La Nina.

On the solar front I am still expecting the weakness of Cycle 24 to continue - so I am expecting the extended minimum to start having a small effect in respect of global temperatures.

SSTs affect UK temperatures significantly and in reaching my estimate of 10.2c I am assuming no significant cooling of the North Atlantic, but there is any NAD disruption then things could look somewhat different, with a negative effect of circa 0.5c.

(That is not two "guesses" by the way!)

MM

[Iceberg]

It's OK Stu is was very much a T in C comment, next year will be warm my guess, but I don't know how warm, as to Solar IMHO SI rather than sunspot number is more important for temps and SI is still considerably higher than during the LIA (a dalton or maunder min). SI probably needs to be not just lower but lower for a decade or so to have more than a .1 or .2C effect.

[VillagePlank]

Shockingly cold, next year, and very wet. 9.5C

[Lettucing Gutted]

13.5C

[SteveB]

13.5C

I think we would all boil if it was that high. But it is in keeping with all your other guesses I suppose.

[Gray-Wolf]

Looking at the size of the heat pool to the south of the El-Nino signature I've got to go for a globally hot year. The re-awakening of the sun had begun so the 'deep solar' min folk probably shot their bolt a little early.

I'd go for 11.34c and a record global temp with a record ice min.