Annual Cet - 2010

[Solar Cycles]

Well I certainly feel we will come under 10c, so with that in mind I'm going for a rather chilly 9.25c.

Let's just hope those figures don't get manipulated, to show that the globe is still warming hey!

Edited February 4, 2010 by Solar Cycles

[jonboy]

I think that winter still has a sting in the tail and that we will have a cool spring and early summer before we get things back to long term average. Therefore I will go for 9.11

[kold weather]

Worth remembering even if we do have a cold first quater a very warm summer will help and shunt the CET above 10C, 1947 is a very neat example of how a very cold first 3 months of the year can be balanced out by the rest of the year.

[Optimus Prime]

1947 still only came in at 9.57c. A frigid year compared to what we get these days.

You'd need more then a warm summer.

[kold weather]

Depends on just how cold and how warm the two respective quaters of the year are really I suppose...Feb 47 was quite exceptional and March was pretty cold as well and whilst this Jan was colder then Jan 47, I think its fair to say even if we do get a rather potent cold spell this month is not going to come in quite as cold as that period!

Saying all that obviously a cold start really does help out in terms of the annual CET, and also we should come in much lower then 06, which came out record breakingly high thanks to the second half of the year.

[reef]

Worth remembering even if we do have a cold first quater a very warm summer will help and shunt the CET above 10C, 1947 is a very neat example of how a very cold first 3 months of the year can be balanced out by the rest of the year.

An extreme example is perhaps 2006 as you say. The first 4 months had a cumulative negative anomoly of -1.3C yet by the end of the year we'd built up a positive anomoly of +13.0C and had a record year!

A cold winter will help, but ironically winter has been the most common season to record a 1C below average anomoly in the last 20 years. We have to go back to 1986 since that last happened in spring, 1972 in summer and 1993 in Autumn!

[LomondSnowstorm]

9.68C

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think my 10.18 prediction is entirely "do-able"- take the following plausible figures:

Jan 1.4 (-2.8 )

Feb 3.3 (-0.9)

Mar 5.6 (-0.7)

Apr 9.4 (+1.3)

May 11.5 (+0.2)

Jun 15.4 (+1.3)

Jul 17.3 (+0.8 )

Aug 18.1 (+1.9)

Sep 15.5 (+1.8 )

Oct 12.0 (+1.6)

Nov 6.9 (+0.0)

Dec 5.7 (+0.6)

Annual CET 10.18

[Snowstorm1]

9.5C VERY COLD FEBRUARY/MARCH and then hot summer and back cold again round winter lol

[kold weather]

Yep it is do able TWS though it is going to require a decent run of above normal temps, still now days it seems more possible then before to get such a run of above normal temps.

Still we are rather dependant on a decent summer and probably extended warmth during Autumn to reach say above 10.2C if Feb does come in fairly cold.

In theory if every month came in now as they did in 2006 then we'd reach 10.6C....that really is probably the very upper limit right now, the second half of 2006 really did do the damage to that annual CET.

[Lettucing Gutted]

A cold winter will help, but ironically winter has been the most common season to record a 1C below average anomaly in the last 20 years. We have to go back to 1986 since that last happened in spring, 1972 in summer and 1993 in Autumn!

The mild springs and autumns since after 1996 have been real killers for recording years below 10C.

Edited February 5, 2010 by Craig Evans

[Weather-history]

Something to note

January 1959 had a CET of 1.6 and ended up having an annual CET of 10.48

[kold weather]

Yep Mr.Data, though 2010 has a slight headstart already thanks to a slightly lower Jan...and I think we are probably heading towards a rather lower temp then Feb had as well.

I suspect 10.6C really is the upper limit thats likely to be reachable even if we do have a rather warm last 3/4 of the year given Jan+Feb could well end up with a cumulative departure of 4-5C.

[noggin]

Thought I'd bring this thread back to the fore! Hadobs has the CET for February as 2.9 up to the 15th. So another cold fortnight to add to the already cold start to the year. I suppose that with every cold fortnight it's going to take an even warmer Summer to bring the annual CET to over 10c.

Fascinating watching it unfold.

I might have a late "plump" myself, just for fun!

Off to read the tea leaves.......

Right, I shall go for a cool 8.49c.

Edited February 16, 2010 by noggin

[Deep Snow please]

In the UK 9C

Globally 12C

That's a lot of difference but it's because I think we're looking at a cold end (Oct-Dec) which couled with the cold start will bring our country in very low however the global trend seems different, I reckon Asia, Africa and America could all see a warm year.

Edited February 17, 2010 by Deep Snow please

[stewfox]

I think my 10.18 prediction is entirely "do-able"- take the following plausible figures:

Jan 1.4 (-2.8 )

Feb 3.3 (-0.9)

Mar 5.6 (-0.7)

Apr 9.4 (+1.3)

May 11.5 (+0.2)

Jun 15.4 (+1.3)

Jul 17.3 (+0.8 )

Aug 18.1 (+1.9)

Sep 15.5 (+1.8 )

Oct 12.0 (+1.6)

Nov 6.9 (+0.0)

Dec 5.7 (+0.6)

Annual CET 10.18

Any CET is plausable if you change the other figures to suit the original forcast. I cant see 9 months of above average CET

10.18 highly unlikely a sub 10c far more certain now

Edited February 18, 2010 by stewfox

[reef]

Any CET is plausable if you change the other figures to suit the original forcast. I cant see 9 months of above average CET

10.18 highly unlikely a sub 10c far more certain now

Its ridiculous to rule anything out right now. Despite coming out of a cold winter lets not lose perspective, in the CET zone it'll be the first season more than 1C below the 30 year average for 14 years. In the same time period seasons has been more than 1C above average on 20 occasions.

We might be in a trend where temperatures are indeed lower, but to dismiss any number of above average months is foolish.

[stewfox]

Its ridiculous to rule anything out right now. Despite coming out of a cold winter lets not lose perspective, in the CET zone it'll be the first season more than 1C below the 30 year average for 14 years. In the same time period seasons has been more than 1C above average on 20 occasions.

We might be in a trend where temperatures are indeed lower, but to dismiss any number of above average months is foolish.

I am not dismissing any number of above average CET months.

I'm sure August , September and October will be exceptionally warm months as indicated .

Too reach the CET figures mentioned we are talking about.

August being the 7^th warmest in the last 350 years

September the 8^th Warmest in last 350 years

October the 10^th Warmest in last 350 years

How foolish of me to 'suggest' it was unlikely.

[kold weather]

Its ridiculous to rule anything out right now.

I'd rule out the record already to be honest, as that looks likely to need something even more exceptional then the 2nd half of 2006 which was pretty insane as it is, esp given how cold the seas around us are as well...

Though to rule out anything above 10C I agree its not a wise idea at all, given we are coming off the back of an El nino this summer it wouldn't surprise me at all if this summer turns out decently above normal, neither would it shock me if the Autumn does the same.

[summer blizzard]

Interestingly, the year which best matched the December January data for the QBO, AO and MEI data was actually 2003, so there may be some hope for this summer yet.

[paul tall]

A cold winter will help, but ironically winter has been the most common season to record a 1C below average anomoly in the last 20 years. We have to go back to 1986 since that last happened in spring, 1972 in summer and 1993 in Autumn!

Lets face it, you want negative anomolies in winter, because who wants July 2 degrees below average? Especially up here where the average mean is only around 16º anyway.

[kold weather]

Well Feb looks like being another month 1C below the 71-00 average, so looking at something around 4C cumulative off the 71-00 for the first 2 months, certainly a good start if you want a sub 10C year.

For now it looks like March will start fairly cold, though whether or not it remains that way is of course yet to be seen!

[Weather-history]

A cold winter will help, but ironically winter has been the most common season to record a 1C below average anomoly in the last 20 years. We have to go back to 1986 since that last happened in spring, 1972 in summer and 1993 in Autumn!

It is easier to record a negative anomaly for winter months than it is with summer months. If you look at all the months with the largest negative anomalies, they will all be winter months and therefore winter will be the season with the largest negative anomalies.

For instance, January 2010 had an anomaly of -2.4C to the 1961-90 average. When was the last time that happened with a summer month of that magnitude? Even June 1991 was just 2.0C below the 1961-90 average and it is one of the coldest Junes on record.

Edited February 28, 2010 by Mr_Data

[North-Easterly Blast]

August 1912 was 2.9 below the 1961-90 average. June 1972 was 2.4 below the 1961-90 average, and so was June 1916. July 1922 was 2.4 below the 1961-90 average.

However, -2.5 is around the limit for a negative anomaly for a summer month, and indeed any month from April to October. Even the coldest May on record (1740) was only 2.6 below the 61-90 mean. Whereas it is possible to get negative anomalies in excess of -5*C in the greatest of all winter months like January 1963 / 1940, February 1947 / 1895 etc.

[kold weather]

Yeah its certainly true its easier to record big -ve months in the winter thats for sure.

Anyway March looks like a tough month to call in terms of temps, however the first 2 months have done a good job thus far in helping the sub 10C cause.