Annual Cet - 2010

[jonboy]

Makes you wonder how cold this year might had been 50 years ago.

Given the climatic conditions certainly no colder or warmer than it is today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Optimus Prime]

Given the climatic conditions certainly no colder or warmer than it is today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I guess background warming isnt your strong point?

[noggin]

Looking pretty cold for the rest of the year by most predictions. Perhaps my guess of 8.49 might not be too far off the mark after all. :lol:

Might it happen? What sort of temperatures would we need from now on to reach that figure? Would we need an unprecedented run of below freezing days as well as mighty cold nights? Or would just slightly below average temperatures do it? Or am I living in cloud cuckoo land to think it could possibly get that low?

[Weather-history]

Interesting graph, note how this year is showing a nett negative for the CET minima

Pretty good chance of 2010 CET annual minimum being below the 1961-90 average even taking into account of an exceptionally mild December. It looks as though November CET mnimum will drop from its current value.

[kold weather]

Yeah and I suspect the mean temp will have a real shot at dropping below the 61-90 as well for that matter, of couse a record breaking December could certainly throw a spanner in the works if it were to come off but I suspect we won't be that mild even if things were to go wrong synoptically.

8.49C would probably take a record breaking cold November and December now...so in other words no its not going to happen!

[noggin]

8.49C would probably take a record breaking cold November and December now...so in other words no its not going to happen!

That's a shame. Perhaps next year, then!

[Stu_London]

A November CET of 5.3C (currently progged by models) would see the 12 monthly rolling CET drop to 9.15C

I can't say for definate, because I cannot download on the laptop I am using currently from HadCet, but I think from memory we would need an average of just under 2C for the first 15 days of December for the rolling CET to go sub 9C.

To go sub 9C for the calander year, November and December must not add up to more than 6.5C. Still an outside bet for that, but somewhere in the very low 9s is looking pretty likely now. Amazing really as we were staring down the barrel of +11 years not so long back and sub 10 was considered impossible by some.

[Gavin P]

Sub 9 does look a huge ask, but the fact it might still be in play is astonishing!

[kold weather]

The rolling CET is going to be tight and close if some of the models are right and the cold continues through at least the first 5-7 days...but personally think we will fall short.

Anything above 9.5C is going to require a pretty strong turnaround in December though you can never rule anything out, the likely range now IMO seems to be between 9.2-9.4C...but a very cold December could even cause it go below that yet...

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just a quick question. How many decimal places are used for the monthly CETs when adding up for the yearly CET?

[Optimus Prime]

Just a quick question. How many decimal places are used for the monthly CETs when adding up for the yearly CET?

Pretty sure it's still only rounded to one decimal place.

[Optimus Prime]

As a reminder where we stand right now;

January 1.4c (-2.8c)

February 2.8c (-1.4c)

March 6.1c (-0.2c)

April 8.8c (+0.7c)

May 10.7c (-0.6c)

June 15.2c (+1.0c)

July 17.1c (+0.6c)

August 15.3c (-0.9c)

September 13.8c (+0.1c)

October 10.3c (-0.1c)

Upto October 9.39 (-0.36c)

Highly likely November will finish at 5.5c (-1.5c)

Yearly CET upto November 9.77c (-0.46c)

Calculation Yax11+D/12=Yb

If December finished at;

8.0c Yearly CET would be 9.62c

7.0c 9.53c

6.0c 9.45c

5.0c 9.37c

4.0c 9.28c

3.0c 9.20c

2.0c 9.12c

1.0c 9.03c

0.0 8.95c

Coldest CET ever -3.1c would = 8.69c

Going by recent December trends December will most likely finish on 4.7c and would finish the year of at 9.34c. Coldest year since 1996 (at 9.20c)

However mean minima looks interesting. Could be close to -0.6c below normal by the end of November.

Edited November 27, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[Stu_London]

I've got a feeling we will be below 9.2C at year end.

Firstly, 5.5C looks high for November. More likely to be 5.1C or 5.2C

Also 4.7C is a huge ask for December given that the first week is likely to be around 0C and the cold signal is quite strong thereafter.

If November is 5.1C then to get above 9.2C for the year we need 3.8C or higher for December.

Also now an excellent chance of the rolling CET to dip below 9C in the first 10 days or so of December.

[West is Best]

There's a distinct chance increasing of going sub 9C on the annual CET ...

[kold weather]

Hmmm its not impossible, I think the 9.1-9.2C is still the more likely range BUT the first half of December looks bitter at the moment one way or the other and even if we reverted to much milder conditions I'd be doubtful if we go above 3C and there is every chance in the right pattern of us being some way below even that...

Amazing though to think we are even talking about sub 9C as an option...even in October I'd have said very little chance!!

[Snowly does it]

By my reckoning, a 1.1 December delivers a sub-9 year

Perhaps more realistically 1.4 by the 16th (I think) would deliver a sub-9 rolling 12 month period for the first time since the mid eighties.

Rolling CET to end November = 9.15

[kold weather]

Of course have we had adjustments for November yet, that may increase that total slightly...

Still 1.1C is on the low side of what is really likely BUT not impossible given the severe cold at the start and the fact the models are really hinting at the cold staying for at least the first 10-15 days...

[Snowly does it]

Of course have we had adjustments for November yet, that may increase that total slightly...

Still 1.1C is on the low side of what is really likely BUT not impossible given the severe cold at the start and the fact the models are really hinting at the cold staying for at least the first 10-15 days...

November figure is out Kold, it is 5.2

[Stu_London]

I think we are near certain to have a rolling CET below 9C, sometime in December and the way the models are shaping up, I couldn't rule out completely the annual CET finishing below 9C.

I will update this daily now, because it will change significantly on a daily basis.

CET 01/12/09-30/11/10 - 9.15C

CET 02/12/09-01/12/10 - 9.14C

We need the first 9 days of December to stay sub zero to achieve a rolling CET below 9C

[kold weather]

Should easily do that Stu, the first 3 days alone may develop enough of a net negative for that to occur and I think after maybe a brief blip this weekend where the daytime mean may just clip above 0C pretty much that whole period will contain days which are sub zero...

[AderynCoch]

Things really starting to take shape now.

9.5C is gone. Kaputski. We'd need December to come in at 7.3C to reach that figure, and that surely isn't going to happen with cold lasting well towards the middle of the month.

To get below 9C for the year, December would need to finish at below 1.3C - not too outlandish if the cold spell keeps going on...

Edited December 2, 2010 by AderynCoch

[West is Best]

December could be on course to take a hammering, although we all know how things can turnaround. However, a December which starts at record-breaking cold is highly unlikely to be able to turn out significantly mild - there just isn't the solar ooomph.

We might be looking at a below freezing month. And with that, the annual CET goes correspondingly south.

Edited December 5, 2010 by West was Best

[kold weather]

1.3C is certainly looking very do able now lookin at the models, it'd be our coldest month since Jan 87 I think but no reason why we can't do it given we've already had a long cold spell which has really cooled things off far more then you'd normally expect for the start of December...

I'll make a cheeky punt and say we are going sub 9C guys...AMAZING turnaround from 2006!!

[Optimus Prime]

We're only 5 days into the month. One thing we can guarentee is the CET will be below 4.0c. Even 4.0c which isn't all that cold for recent times would get it down to 9.27c. Considering the world is going to have either it's warmest or second warmest year on record I think we have been incredibly fortunate to get this one. Probably won't once this warming kicks in again.

[winterfreak]

Probably won't once this warming kicks in again.

Will warming kick in though? There's a lot to suggest we may well be going other way if I'm reading your comment the way I think it's meant. A bit presumptuous to assume we'll carry on warming.....