Annual Cet - 2010

[Weather-history]

2010 CET minimum has actually dipped below 1996's final value

[Stu_London]

CET 06/12/09-05/12/10 - 9.07C

Looking likely that tomorrows figures will see us dip below 9C rolling CET

[Stu_London]

CET 06/12/09-05/12/10 - 9.07C

Looking likely that tomorrows figures will see us dip below 9C rolling CET

CET 07/12/09-06/12/10 - 9.03C

Sub 9, tomorrow or the next day.

[kold weather]

Its getting increasingly possible that we actually will go sub 9C this year, the slight milder spell is being eroded by the models and a new protracted cold spell is showing on the models starting from next week and getting progressivly stronger into the week after.

1.2C is looking ever more do able for December's CET, I'd say its almost 50-50 now which is amazing given how few December's have actually made it that low...

[Cymro]

What tickles me its not long we were talking of sub 10 now its sub 9, massive turn around in the uk weather last 4 years!

[DAVID SNOW]

What tickles me its not long we were talking of sub 10 now its sub 9, massive turn around in the uk weather last 4 years!

Very true My guess of 9.5 is going to be too high

[Stu_London]

CET - 8/12/09-7/12/10

9.00C

[Stu_London]

CET - 8/12/09-7/12/10

9.00C

CET - 9/12/09-8/12/10

8.97C

[kold weather]

It weren't that long ago some were saying it was impossible to get below 10C for a CET average and that to go below that would be nearly exceptional...

Looks like we aren't just going sub 10C...but a very real risk of going sub 9C!

[Stu_London]

The rolling CET will keep dropping for a few more days yet

The corresponding next week in 2009 averaged just under 5C - Even our 2010 mild spell wont match that

[Stu_London]

CET 13/12/09-12/12/10

8.94C

Small drops likely over the next week, as although we will be cold, this time last year was quite cold also.

[kold weather]

Yeah we are only going to be a little bit below what we were this time last year unless we really do severe and start getting -4/5Cs (which is possible!)

Either way its going to be a close call as to whether we end up sub 9C...I think we will in terms of 2 decimels point, but to one decimal point its going to be very close...

[summer blizzard]

By my reckoning, a 1.1 December delivers a sub-9 year

Perhaps more realistically 1.4 by the 16th (I think) would deliver a sub-9 rolling 12 month period for the first time since the mid eighties.

Rolling CET to end November = 9.15

Given the outputs to 240 hours, i would say sub 1.1C is 60/40 in favour!!

What is required for 8.74C? (1986)

Edited December 13, 2010 by summer blizzard

[Stu_London]

What is required for 8.74C? (1986)

-1.9C for December

Not really much hope of that unless we stay deeply in the freezer right out to month end.

[Stu_London]

CET 15/12/09-14/12/10 - 8.93C

Looks like the coldest part of December this year will coincide almost exactly with the coldest part of last December. However v.2010 is much colder, so expect this value to keep falling over the next few days.

The final week will be crucial, although sub 9C is starting to look quite long odds on.

[kold weather]

What does December need to get above 8.99C Stu?

[Stu_London]

1.3C brings us in at exactly 9.00C

My method is based on the monthly returns to 1 decimal place, but an annual calculation to 2 decimal places - same as Hadley use I believe.

[Weather-history]

I know I have been harping on about the minima in this thread but has anyone done the rolling annual minima? That could be an interesting figure.

[Cymro]

So Sub 9 looks very possible now then providing we keep cooler conditions around christmas?

[Stu_London]

I know I have been harping on about the minima in this thread but has anyone done the rolling annual minima? That could be an interesting figure.

The provisional anomoly for the minimas is -0.52C (to 15th December)

The provisional anomoly for the mean is -0.40C (to 14th December)

So minimas more responsible for the cold, but not hugely so

[kold weather]

1.3C brings us in at exactly 9.00C

My method is based on the monthly returns to 1 decimal place, but an annual calculation to 2 decimal places - same as Hadley use I believe.

That looks more then do able at the moment unless we have something close to a record breaking mild last 5 days to the month.

Looking like a sub 9C year is getting increasingly likely.

[Stu_London]

CET 18/12/09-17/12/10 - 8.91C

Further falls likely in the short term

The next crazy record to consider is whether we can get the coldest year since 1963.

To beat every year in the 70s and 80s we need December to come in at -1.9C

Still in the highly unlikely bracket at the moment, but if we get a cold high after christmas, I couldn't categorically rule it out, especially after month end adjustments

[Weather-history]

24 days now with a sub-zero CET mean

Equal to 1986 up to yesterday that is

[kold weather]

2010 appears to be certain to have the most amount of CET Ice days in terms of the mean since 1963...beating out years such as 1985, 1986 andn 1979.

In all likelyhood we'd have had more CET ice mean days in 2010 then the whole of the 2000-2008 period!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

In all likelyhood we'd have had more CET ice mean days in 2010 then the whole of the 2000-2008 period!

That just shows how amazing winter months have been this year and how poor they were back then. Long may the trend continue!