Annual Cet - 2010

[kold weather]

I'd go for 10.45, however Jan for now is very likely to come in below average, possibly very below average so thats a good start for thosde wanting a below normal year.

[Weather-history]

10.1C

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

My guess is 10.3

[Snowly does it]

9.19, coldest year since the 80s.

[Mark Bayley]

10.7c please with El nino. I wonder if we will see the Jet continue trend south like the last summers or will it go North!

[acbrixton]

10.4 for my guess please.

regards

ACB

[Ben_Cambs]

10.15C please

[BARRY]

9.9c for me

[Gavin P]

Its difficult to call this. El Nino would suggest another +10 year, but given the January (and Feb and probably March too) we're facing, the rest of the year will struggle to get to 10c, IMO. My hunch would be 9.5c. Coldest year since 1996 - If we was to have a fourth poor summer, it could be quite a bit lower than I've predicted.

[BornFromTheVoid]

9.88C A relatively cold winter and spring, warm summer and an average autumn.

[ukmoose]

10.5 please

[paul tall]

8.8ºC.

[summer blizzard]

Was'nt sure where to post this, but i have been having a look at the closest anologues to the November-December period and while the signal for the February-June period is weak, there is a strong signal for a colder than average July-September period, which would effectively make this four on the trot.

In regards to early spring, i have been looking at different modeling algorythems, and there is a strong signal for a mid-lattitude high pressure over the UK from Mid-February to Mid-April, i would not be suprised if we see this period being mainly sunny and dry, if i had to guess, i would go for a warm/southerly, late February and Early March, followed by a cool easterly/northerly period in late March/Early April, the signal for late Spring is much more unsettled.

Edit: Have also been looking towards next winter, and it looks like we will see a more classic El Nino winter, with a moderate El Nino coupled with a westerly QBO.

1992

1987

1977

These are the closest anologues at the moment.

[Stu_London]

Thought I would resurrect the rolling annual CET thread as we are about to go sub 10C again

CET 25/01/09-24/01/10 - 10.02C

[SteveB]

Should that be 24-01-10?

[Stu_London]

Should that be 24-01-10?

yes - fixed

[Paul T]

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

1.5 3.1 7.4 9.1 10.2 14.1 17.2 17.2 13.4 10.0 5.1 3.7

9.6 for me, time for the dynamic eqilibrium of life to kick in against the recent warming trend.

Will the MO have to adjust upwards to keep their government funded GW loving jobs?

Keep an eye out!

[Gavin P]

Looks a nice summer based on those figures.

[Weather-history]

Edit: Have also been looking towards next winter, and it looks like we will see a more classic El Nino winter, with a moderate El Nino coupled with a westerly QBO.

.

How do you know next winter will be an El Nino?

[summer blizzard]

How do you know next winter will be an El Nino?

Just going by the anologues which best matched the November-December period.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I am thinking we will have quite a warm dry sunny summer this year following the three wet ones, so that should bolster the CET. A warm autumn may also be on the cards. However I think the early part of the year will continue often on the cool side.

Therefore I think something around 10.18C, just a little above the last couple of years.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I am thinking we will have quite a warm dry sunny summer this year following the three wet ones, so that should bolster the CET. A warm autumn may also be on the cards. However I think the early part of the year will continue often on the cool side.

Therefore I think something around 10.18C, just a little above the last couple of years.

It is very important to note that whilst the last three summers have been much wetter than average (especially 2007) none of them have been cool, and last year saw a summer slightly warmer than average but still mixed.

It is still too early to speculate what summer 2010 may bring - it could be drier and warmer than the last three summers, it could just be a typical average mixed summer, or finally it could be a cool summer, like the mid 1980s and a number of similar ones prior to that. Who knows?

[Optimus Prime]

January 1.4c -2.8c

February 4.3c +0.1c

Winter 2.9c

March 6.0c -0.3c

April 8.2c +0.1c

May 12.1c +0.8c

Spring 8.8c

June 15.3c +1.1c

July 17.1c +0.6c

August 18.5c +2.3c

Summer 17.0c

September 14.7c +1.0c

October 10.8c +0.4c

November 5.8c -1.1c

Autumn 10.4c

December 7.3c +2.2c

Overall 10.125

[summer blizzard]

My prediction for this year is..

January - March: -1.3C anomoly

April - June: +0.3C

July - September: -0.4C

October - December: -0.4C

Annual Cet average: 9.75C

2010 annual CET prediction: 9.28C

[Gavin P]

Quite a cold year then SB? the coldest since 1996 infact?

I have to say with February looking like it'll probably come in below average, those expecting a +10c CET will be up against it right from the start of the year, IMO. Not impossible of course, but already not that easy.