Model Output Discussion

[SMU]

parallel- goes crazy for the South East-

Wheres TOM SE20-

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfsp/run/gfsnh-0-276.png?12

Thats -17's coming in from the east.....

S

Edited December 6, 2009 by Steve Murr

[snowmadchrisuk]

The parallel Is good , very good in FI but takes a little longer for the really cold air to get to the uk. Still good over all though.

[cyclonic happiness]

You're probably right, too good to be true. Even the jet is way way south, its running through North Africa!

Lol, the weather forums of Algeria will be ramping up the coming "rainfest" then? can you imagine? "omg look at the 12z guys I think we are gonna be in for one heck of a wet christmas (yes I know it's a muslim country but I'm just saying for effect)

[weather eater]

A stonking run, but let’s all remember we have seen them before. Looking forward to the ECM now, it doesn't have to be mind blowing; just support the initial 144hrs that would do fine for me.

[andy_leics22]

Ferlippin HECK, the 12z has come up with a beauty. Now I wouldn't usually take any notice of anything past T180 but the fact that those charts have been coming and going now past T180 for the past 4 days then i'm starting to wonder if the GFS is actually onto something here? It's certainly not impossible.

[Matt12345]

Bet no-one has picked this up-

Snow into the SE in the high res..

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-180.png?12

all good stuff- lets not get to carried away though......

S

Well said Steve, got to be a downgrade around the corner! There are always so many ups and downs on this forum! Those charts are too good to be true even to my un-trained eye.

[Snowstorm1]

Right folks these charts i have to admit are mouth watering but calm down and IF they are still like this 3days before the event goodluck netweather the servers might crash!

[Nick L]

Don't mean to put a downer on things, but there is only one way all this can go!

[clark3r]

GFS FI is surely having a laugh! That is the dream setup as far for the North East, reminds me of the 50-60cm falls that occurred during February 1979 This run has given me further hope, and I'm now confident that a significant cold snap is on the horizon. It will probably be of an easterly type, but whether it is very snowy like the 12z GFS would have us believe, or similar to last New Year a la 6z I don't know. Either way I'm quite happy but I'd prefer the snowy one. I'm not ruling out the high pressure being suppressed giving a mild westerly flow, but I think that this is less likely than a cold snap.

ok right i think we need to get to next weekend first when the high gets in charge of our weather before we can start making predictions of any cold snap! but proberly some of the best charts iv seen in fi!

[cooling climate]

Lol, the weather forums of Algeria will be ramping up the coming "rainfest" then? can you imagine? "omg look at the 12z guys I think we are gonna be in for one heck of a wet christmas (yes I know it's a muslim country but I'm just saying for effect)

The parallel has a reload and wants to continue the freeze through to the new year by the

looks of things.

[SP1986]

FI is clearly showing us why it's called FI, a run which is there to be criticised (to be fair), very unlikely in my opinion but given that the easterly was prominent at some point in Europe it is bound to pop up in the operational from time to time - there just hasn't been any solid run to run agreement so it suggests the models will have difficulty handling this scenario right down to the last hour!.

I think this will almost certainly represent at least a partial outlier, although it's difficult to call. A northeasterly of this proportion is unlikely to be honest!

[cyclonic happiness]

Don't mean to put a downer on things, but there is only one way all this can go!

Are you seriously claiming that it could get even COLDER????!!!

[pj cov]

A true stonker! Let's just hope it comes off!!!!!

over the next few days expect it to get to get very busy on this forum,,,something very special awaites

the uk,,,after 2 decades of not very much,WINTERS COMIN!!!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Don't mean to put a downer on things, but there is only one way all this can go!

Even colder and snowier LOL

[Mark Bayley]

Don't mean to put a downer on things, but there is only one way all this can go!

Don't worry, im sure the pub run will find something

Overall a very good parallel and operation GFS. Hopefully the ensembles should be good.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

[Matt12345]

Are you seriously claiming that it could get even COLDER????!!!

Think he means a downgrade, and us missing out!

[Dingwantssnow]

Ha im watching this in work and just looked at a few of the posted Charts, said holy S*%t loud enoguh for everyone to hear me. I know enough that if that were to come off were in for a good ole freeze.

Luckily i work in 3rd line support for a well known BroadBand provider so can get away with it but i wonder what state the country's Telephone infrastructure would be in if FI were to happen

[winter watcher]

Operational says very cold as well parallel just wonderfull this is what i call a blast from the past....

[cooling climate]

I mentioned yesterday about the models having a wobble but I must admit I did not think

the GFS would come round this quick.

[Nick L]

I did mean downhill! There is no way it can get any better than this. The pub run (18z) will have to get so drunk it passes out just to equal that!

[andy_leics22]

I will put £20 on the pub run being a bad one after T180. There is no way it will continue with what the 12z just churned out. If it does I will be very surprised.

[MR EXTREMES]

The parallel has a reload and wants to continue the freeze through to the new year by the

looks of things.

intresting thats what GP and others where suggesting might happen awhile ago.

Edited December 6, 2009 by badboy657

[cooling climate]

UKMO is superb.

[The Eagle]

UKMO 144

[weather eater]

over the next few days expect it to get to get very busy on this forum,,,something very special awaites

the uk,,,after 2 decades of not very much,WINTERS COMIN!!!

Nothing like that sort of statement to deliver the kiss of death, I'm not superstitious but let’s leave the congratulations till later shall we.