Ramping Thread

[V for Very Cold]

well I've never been a ramper (bar the occasional over enthusiasm lol) but I have to say, I'm mightily chuffeed over seeeing such a relatively prolonged bought of cold so early in the season and certainly the prospect of a touch of the white stuff has made me almost festive.

[Cookie]

another one of my posts removed. the post wasn't off topic and it was part of a bit of banter with coast.

come on guys.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes, I'm going to remain relaxed and impartial about it for now

I think that we need to be prepared for upgrades myself ....

[grab my graupel]

A few years ago, I used have one of those pics as my desk-top - they're quite amazing

[Timmytour]

Do you know what LS I cannot believe some of the posts in the Cold Discussion thread at the moment. Upon looking at the GFS This morning i was pleasantly surprised at how good it looks all the way through until next Tuesday starting tomorrow. The 500hpa charts look good from Wednesday, the Uppers are cold enough, there will probably be troughs coming in from the East which means frontal snow and not hit and miss showers and after that a very sharp cold front with frontal snow coming from the North for the weekend, it then stays cold with snow showers later in the weekend and early next week. But from the look of the posts over there you would think it is going to be 8c and Mild over the next 7 days.

I reckon we could get a 1cm or 2 between now and wednesday, then another dusting Thursday before more significant snow for either Fri/Sat or Sunday. Totals are hard to pinpoint at the moment due to the strength of the easterly and how strong the Cold front is going to be over the weekend.

Paul S

Paul, had a lot of fun back in Feb with that Thames streamer, but you'll recall more than anyone how, especially in the early stages, the potential for snow did not materialse in your area as you hoped it would!

I wonder if the guys in the Model thread have suffered too much through the years to be anything other than cyncial? After all, as I recall there were indications that as we had the Great Snow Event of 2009, the weather for the rest of the month look set to be bitter with further potential repeats. Alas that did not happen! I'd say it takes a certain type of bravado to go in again where you have been bitten so many times in the past!

Edited December 14, 2009 by Timmytour

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Timmy

Yeah I know what you are saying and maybe the Models and the wealth of Information we have at our disposal is now a bad thing tbh, god know how some would have reacted if the Tinternet was around in the late 70's and early 80's, prozac sales would have gone through the roof and A&E Would have been very busy due to throat slitting, but this is how all these events unfolded back in those days as well it is just all we had was the 6pm news and a weather bulletin for about 2 and a half minutes!

Regarding the Thames Snow Streamer in a way it reminded me of a less prolonged Feb 1991 Easterly outbreak but with the same intensity over a shorter window of time. If you look at the archived charts that also had a very narrow Cold Pool affected EA & Southern England and not too much cold pooling was off to our North East, the TSS Started as a Cold Pool over Poland and advected over Germany and across the North Sea for about 36 hours, the winds were VERY Favourable ENE & as such places downwind from the ENE - WSW Got Hammered esp SW London, Surrey etc with smaller falls North and South of these areas.

I still think this Set-Up has some surprises up its sleeve, you have only got to look at the Mon into Tues and Tues into Wed Snow Risk that has now cropped up, granted it is marginal but it just goes to show how these things change by the hour

Regards

Paul S

[Snow Cat]

Possible upgrade on the GFS delaying the breakdown?

[Schnee]

Possible upgrade on the GFS delaying the breakdown?

That would make an interesting shock when going to work....

[nanu]

Possible upgrade on the GFS delaying the breakdown?

Hmmm wonder what he's saying "Thats why i cant get into work!!"

[Coast]

So, are you getting ready for Thursday then?.......

[Coast]

I wonder if my skating competition will still be on?

[wysiwyg]

The stress of model watching is obviously getting just a little bit too much for some people

Clearly - the models have forgetten to take into account the shift in the earth's gravitational field and that's why they are all over the shop just now!

But obviously the more seasoned and experienced forcasters are not letting any of this rattle them. It's just another day at the office pondering the likely pattern of the jetstream, the PDO, the MJO, SSWs, ENSOs......................

[Coast]

I think a bit of safety advice is now in order

[wysiwyg]

You missed one coast

HUH?????

[Coast]

What are the chances of you giving me a hand to get the car going Thursday then Fizzy?

[paul tall]

LOL coast!

The first two pictures are incredible!

[wysiwyg]

What are the chances of you giving me a hand to get the car going Thursday then Fizzy?

Already been in training for such eventualities for the last week coast !

[butler_son]

Already been in training for such eventualities for the last week coast !

Fizzy. No wonder you're on the naughty step...

[wysiwyg]

Fizzy. No wonder you're on the naughty step...

I posted that pic last year and got away with it - that was before I knew about the naughty step

[Coast]

I posted that pic last year and got away with it - that was before I knew about the naughty step

Last year we only had a small naughty step. But this year.....

[Coast]

Just seen the latest models and wonder if I may be permitted, just a small ???

[wysiwyg]

I asked the Top Gear lads if they would help me make a few mods to my car to help me through the upcoming cold spell.......

When I finally managed to get the car back of the stig - they came up with this - not bad I reckon!!

In fact I was flooded with literally some emails asking me for the plans!!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I feel in a bit of a ramping mood this evening seeing all these astonishing 1980s style synoptics and realising that there's a very high chance of most of them coming off. Coming back to Tyneside on Thursday, and could end up greeted with as much as 5-10 consecutive days of snow cover, depending on when the milder air finally gets in from the south (if Glacier Point's teleconnection analysis and the ECMWF/GFS 18Z are right, this could be well after Christmas making it nearer 10 days and the first proper white Christmas since 1995).

Yes, I don't normally ramp, but tonight I felt like it.

[wysiwyg]

Good on Ya TWS :lol: nothing like a good ramp every once in a while!

Keeps us all sane I think up here in the snow-starved North West

[Nick L]

After the insane pub run, I think I need to put up the warning sign...

Altogether folks!..."I'm dreaming, of a White Christmas, just like the ones I never saw..."

Edited December 15, 2009 by nick2702