Cold Spell General Discussion

[k19]

Hey, and from what the bbc and metcheck are showing, the northwest will only have a couple of frosts between now and next wednesday. Metcheck are also saying snow for my location on Monday Night, and i know this is a world away atm. Can anyone see that actually happening though? Surely the snow will be gone by the time it hits the penines?

[Bristawl Si]

Its snow joke for us westerners.

Ill enjoy some frost though as long as the low cloud steers clear.

Assuming the omega block happens early next week and we are in an easterly or n.e. flow, what i look for Mullender, in respect of our area, is a gradual evolvement over time into more of a south easterly, but the air is still from a very cold source. In the cold, snowy winters that occurred during the period of 78-87, we did quite well out of a v.cold south easterly. And don't forget if pressure does fall to our south we did very well out of these situs back then.

The whole weather situ currently forecasted for next week will develop and who knows what we'll have come Friday 18th - a subtle reminder to all that's still a long way off and when the models are predicting the most 'interesting' weather

[East Herts Snow]

lol thats cool london is normally lucky from easterlies.

Hope so, although even more so in hilly rural East Herts.

Although to be fair, I agree with what you have been saying that its still a long way to go and can still go horribly wrong. I just want to have winters like we had back in the 1970's and 1980's :lol: . I keep telling my sons about how cold they were and almost guaranteed snow each year, even in 'warmish North London'. The lying snow would also last for over a week.

Strangely last year was the snowiest winter I can remember (apart from the 1991 snow storm).

[winterfreak]

It's another '87 i long for Two foot of snow on the North downs....Bliss!!!

[Solar Cycles]

As great as it seems, if this cold spell does come off. For me in East Lancashire, I can see nothing more than a few flurries looking at those charts. But that sure beats the hell out of the last 6 weeks!

[snowblizzard]

Hope so, although even more so in hilly rural East Herts.

Although to be fair, I agree with what you have been saying that its still a long way to go and can still go horribly wrong. I just want to have winters like we had back in the 1970's and 1980's . I keep telling my sons about how cold they were and almost guaranteed snow each year, even in 'warmish North London'. The lying snow would also last for over a week.

Strangely last year was the snowiest winter I can remember (apart from the 1991 snow storm).

That's probably because there were not that many really cold winters during 70's, 80's & 90's

The majority of winters were quite mild with only very short colder snaps, very few severe cold with lots of snow!

[Dingwantssnow]

As great as it seems, if this cold spell does come off. For me in East Lancashire, I can see nothing more than a few flurries looking at those charts. But that sure beats the hell out of the last 6 weeks!

Yup same for east manc. Still it going to be rather cold...how could though??

[Optimus Prime]

That's probably because there were not that many really cold winters during 70's, 80's & 90's

Tend to disagree generally.

60s only had two cold and snowy winters, 1962/1963 and 1968/1969. The rest were mainly cool and average snow-wise. 70s were quite poor but with some good snowy/cold spells in 1976 and 1978. 1979 being the best.

I'd say the 80s were a good example of cold and very snowy winters that were common. 1981/1982, 1984/1985, 1985/1986 and 1986/1987.

Not a single winter this decade ihas been cold and snowy. Perhaps 2009/2010 will change this to the next?

Edited December 8, 2009 by Optimus Prime

[Tim Bland]

As great as it seems, if this cold spell does come off. For me in East Lancashire, I can see nothing more than a few flurries looking at those charts. But that sure beats the hell out of the last 6 weeks!

If the easterly is sustained for long enough it will pile snow over most of the country. Due to a fiarly mild start the ssts in the north sea are quite warm so the cold air will pick up moisture and blow it all the way to Ireland. The east coas and North york moors etc could see up to 2 feet of snow but a couple of inches will still fall in the west

[Solar Cycles]

If the easterly is sustained for long enough it will pile snow over most of the country. Due to a fiarly mild start the ssts in the north sea are quite warm so the cold air will pick up moisture and blow it all the way to Ireland. The east coas and North york moors etc could see up to 2 feet of snow but a couple of inches will still fall in the west

The only easterly spell that I remember dumping lot's of snow on us was 78/79, but that was an exceptional winter for us at least!

[LomondSnowstorm]

ENEsterlies and ESEsterlies are best around here, as we tend to get the most convection showers from that direction, it allows showers to penetrate inland as the showers don't get stuck over the grampians while the angle avoids all the snow ending up hugging to the estuary!

[disco-barry]

We always fair well from Easterlies, NEarlies are very good too and i'm just before the climb over to the dark side(Lancashire)

[Snowyowl9]

The east/NE-lys of late february 2005 gave ferquent snow showers at certain times,pity temps were not low enough then as there was tempory coverings overall,A NE wind does bring snow showers but they are lighter with more in the way of hail well that was feb 2005.

As we are heading to the shortest days in december we are in a totally diferent situation,long time no see if this happens.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rjma1681.gif

[Ben_Cambs]

These are some snipets of Joe B's latest blog:

the winter of 2002-2003 looks better to me as a base forecast, but that is just the base. It doesn't mean it can't be a bit colder. Here in the States, it is colder earlier also than that winter which had a rather mild December. Fully all of Europe is forecasted to be covered in snow by the 23rd! Again, this is the kind of thing I expected to see this winter... winter "backing in" from the northeast, but I am a bit skeptical because it is early

Joe laminate floori Blog

Summarising, he is saying the cold spell is very likely and he is confident snow is very likely but he does remain cautious over this

[Bristawl Si]

The east/NE-lys of late february 2005 gave ferquent snow showers at certain times,pity temps were not low enough then as there was tempory coverings overall,A NE wind does bring snow showers but they are lighter with more in the way of hail well that was feb 2005.

As we are heading to the shortest days in december we are in a totally diferent situation,long time no see if this happens.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rjma1681.gif

Yeah, that chart is a peach!

Anyone know if the JMA model is a decent performer or is it a laggard compared to other models?

[Ben_Cambs]

Yeah, that chart is a peach!

Anyone know if the JMA model is a decent performer or is it a laggard compared to other models?

From what I read earlier from the model discussion thread, the JMA is also a decent performer

Edited December 8, 2009 by Snowman0697

[AderynCoch]

As great as it seems, if this cold spell does come off. For me in East Lancashire, I can see nothing more than a few flurries looking at those charts. But that sure beats the hell out of the last 6 weeks!

Snow-wise, East Lancashire is like upstate New York compared to Liverpool!

Nevertheless, even here we've had easterlies deliver the goods. Jan/Feb 96 springs to mind - cold and very snowy, with icicles hanging off the gutter. Then again of course, we've had easterlies give us sod all. Every cold spell is different, and this one will be no exception. Fingers crossed...

[Paul]

From what I read earlier from the model discussion thread, the JMA is also a decent performer

Nope, wouldn't agree with that - it's had its successes down the years but they're few and far between!!

[Bristawl Si]

Nope, wouldn't agree with that - it's had its successes down the years but they're few and far between!!

Oh well! Ditch that chart put up earlier by snowyowl!

[kold weather]

Interestingly the easterly that was light and not really all that impressive is being upgraded for the weekend, indeed wintry showers would be very possible from Saturday night onwards based on the 18z run.

[gottolovethisweather]

Hello,

Just a thought, i'm normally a lurker as I have said before (not scientifically minded like the top posters in here).

But, are there people out there/in here who believe in the cycles, i.e. 10 year/20 year patterns. I'm just wondering as it has been posted by others on many different forums in the past.

Has it not been stated that harsh winters in the years gone by were the years such as 62/63 then 81/82 then 90/91 and maybe coincidently 09/10. Anyway history will tell us whether there is something in it, 10/20/10 etc.

I certainly believe in the chances of something different/unique this winter as many of the peeps on here have stated. Clearly the floods (extreme in parts of the u.k) must come to an end and peace/calm must be restored just like, in the cycles mentioned above i suppose, in theory.

Sorry mods, move to the appropriate thread if you feel this is unnecessary.

Anyway, please continue to keep us less informed, well informed.

Now back to lurking

Yours interested,

STORMBOY

[Lewis]

The thing that worries me most in the models is you never hear very cold easterly spells occuring in December like you do January and February. In fact has there ever been a really bitter and snowy E/NE in December?

Edit* not 1987 it was 1985, it was 7-20th of January in 1987

Edited December 8, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[snow raven]

But equally Strong Patterns and near identical Set-Up do sometimes go right

4 days b4 "The Event" - Looks Similar you gotta admit

Just when I had made up my mind to leave the rollercoaster of model viewing for at least 48 hours, that comparrison was posted . Seriously, its times like these, I wish it was 1987 and we were none the wiser as to what was round the corner weather wise until we pulled the curtain apart on that magical snowy morning or was sent home due to heavy snow only hours away of falling at school.... oh, the memories!!!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

One last thing tonight - Read John Holmes excellent summary overview of the models this evening. A very tidy, professional and honest description of things 'as they are' with no hype

[JamieUK]

The models are full of massive potential.

We must respect the intensity of the cold pool to our east.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1442.png

I strongly believe the power of this Arctic high is being underplayed by most if not all models.

I think by the end of next week we could well be shovelling ourselves out of our homes in an historic freeze.

Things will begin to move fast towards the weekend modelwise.

I really hope your right, but i think many people will disagree. As they say many factors can contribute to 'alter' or change things completely.