How Low Will It Go?

[suffolkboy_]

Hi everyone,

With all the excitement of some charts reminiscent of yesteryear around, and the prospect of the best cold spell in a number of years, I thought it would be nice to have a bit of light-hearted fun guessing the lowest daytime maximum temperature and lowest daytime minimum.

Whether your are a ramper of someone more pessimistic about the upcoming cold spell, please join in and post your punt here, just like our monthly CET threads.

Please post:

Lowest Daytime maxima with the location

Lowest Daytime minima with the location

No prizes i'm afraid, but maybe the weather will give us all a treat!

Just some figures I could find, not suggesting it will get this cold ofcourse :wub:

Lowest nightime minimas on record:

-27.2 Altnaharra (Highland) 30 Dec 1995

-25.1 Shawbury (Shropshire) 13 Dec 1981

Lowest Daytime Maxima

-15c Braemar 29th December 1995

-12.1c Shawbury 12th December 1981

Edited December 12, 2009 by suffolkboy_

[Optimus Prime]

I can't find lowest December maxima (maybe someone can help?)

-15c Braemar 29th December 1995.

For a more low level reading -12.1c at Shawbury 12th December 1981

....it's all about 81 and 95 for December.

Lowest daytime maxima -6.0c somehwere in the highlands of Scotland

Lowest minimum -14.0c somehwere in the highlands of Scotland.

[Guest]

I can only speak of my local area, which is Watford, well I could suggest Heathrow where official records are kept.

Lowest maxima there until 31.12.2009: +2.7C

Lowest minima there until 31.12.2009: -4.6C

[suffolkboy_]

-15c Braemar 29th December 1995.

For a more low level reading -12.1c at Shawbury 12th December 1981

....it's all about 81 and 95 for December.

Lowest daytime maxima -6.0c somehwere in the highlands of Scotland

Lowest minimum -14.0c somehwere in the highlands of Scotland.

Thanks for that, have added it to the first post.

[Nights King]

for england -

-4c lowest maximum

-11 lowest min

not sure where though although some impressive day time lows expected in frost hollows.

I expect a daytime minimum below 0c here.

[tinybill]

day time

-5 with wind chill

night time -10 with wind chill !!!!!!!!

[Snowmad79]

Ill go with habitated towns in the England that are and not up a mountain and not up scotland !.

Lowest Maximum 2c

Lowest Minimum - 1c Baring in mind were talking about daytime and not night time

[guitarnutter]

Lowest Daytime Maxima

-15c Braemar 29th December 1995

-12.1c Shawbury 12th December 1981

Holy cow, thats cold!

[TonyH]

My lowest max of this spell -2c

My lowest min of this spell -13c

Nationally the lowest max -6c

Nationally the lowest min -18c

Edited December 12, 2009 by Tonyh

[suffolkboy_]

Ok, here goes my punt.

I think the lowest daytime maxima initially will be on maybe Saturday/Sunday night in a snowcovered area inland with a high of -0.5C

Lowest minima, probably Bedford/Cambridge area at -6c

However, with snowcover in place, if the cold spell does continue with a possibility of even a surface high with much lighter winds, daytime maxima of -3C at Benson, nightime min around Benson again at -11C. However, can't see this happening until after Christmas. I have a feeling the cold will continue to hold on and the breakdown constantly put back by the models, and cold will never be very far away.

Purely my thoughs, please don't shoot me down!

[skifreak]

-27.2 has been achieved several times, it's almost as if this is the floor of how low we can go. If we get the snow on the ground in the Highlands then get an anticyclone coming over I think we could get below -20c. Awful lot of ifs, buts and maybes between now and that potential stage though!

[Optimus Prime]

24 hours ending 2100 on 13 Dec 09: UK

Highest max 9.0 °C Fair Isle

Lowest max -3.0 °C Braemar

Lowest min -9.0 °C Tulloch Bridge

[Methuselah]

My guess:

Lowest min, -21.8 @ Altanharra;

Lowest max, -12.9 @ Braemar...

[trickydicky]

Lowest Min: -26 Altnaharra

Lowest Max: -12 Braemar

I'm hopefull that we will get a slack flow after the proposed northerly passes over at the weekend and we get some low temps in the week upto xmas.

[suffolkboy_]

I first thought that some guesses on here were being very optimistic, as we haven't seen those sorts of temperatures in years! But i'm beginning to think temperatures approaching those values wouldn't be totally out of reach.

To me, very low maxima and minima would be as exciting as snow. I just love extremes to be honest! However, these sorts of temperatures do really need snowcover to be in place, and the deeper the snowcover, the more insulated the ground is.

[Guest]

I first thought that some guesses on here were being very optimistic, as we haven't seen those sorts of temperatures in years! But i'm beginning to think temperatures approaching those values wouldn't be totally out of reach.

To me, very low maxima and minima would be as exciting as snow. I just love extremes to be honest! However, these sorts of temperatures do really need snowcover to be in place, and the deeper the snowcover, the more insulated the ground is.

Low temps come quickly, we had a max of -1C a couple of days ago in the fog under warm 850s.

If snow falls over Scotland in the predicted northerly air flow then we will see -20C at night and a max of -8C or -10C in the day somewhere in the Highlands. At this time of year the temps will nosedive. I can't predict for England as I don't know what their weather does, but in Scotland it has the potential to be very, very cold.

[Altohumorous]

Will the ground under the snow be cold enough to allow such temperatures? We havent had a prolomged cold spell like we had had in 81, and to some extent 95. I mean there must be some effect of unfrozen ground underneath the snow?

I'd love to know what the sea temperatures were in both those years just before the time the very cold temps occurred

Lowest Max - North-central Scotland, (or possibly somewhere in North England if they get snow from the easterly, then sufficient cold from the northerly) - minus 5. Lowest min, minus 15 if a high forms over the snow valley areas

Edited December 15, 2009 by Altohumorous

[Guest]

Will the ground under the snow be cold enough to allow such temperatures? We havent had a prolomged cold spell like we had had in 81, and to some extent 95. I mean there must be some effect of unfrozen ground underneath the snow?

I'd love to know what the sea temperatures were in both those years just before the time the very cold temps occurred

Lowest Max - North-central Scotland, (or possibly somewhere in North England if they get snow from the easterly, then sufficient cold from the northerly) - minus 5. Lowest min, minus 15 if a high forms over the snow valley areas

Even in lowland Scotland we've had -4C and -6C, highlands have had -8C or so....

We have had prolonged cold up here, the frost stayed on the ground and even on buildings here in lowland Scotland all day today in air temps of 7C!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edit: We had -6C on the 1st December at Glasgow Airport. No snow, no nothing.

Edited December 16, 2009 by CatchMyDrift

[Altohumorous]

It's a tricky situation to predict where might get the coldest, as the cold is arriving in complex and uncertain ways. The easterly cold is mainly east, central and south east half of England, maybe northeast England. But the northerly cold may not properly hit some of these areas. If it does, then somehwere in North or Northeast England could get a very low temp after the northerly dies down.

If the northerly hits Scotland well, then north central/northeast scotland looks favoured for a very low temp somewhere, if the wind drops after snow, but a high really needs to form somehwere with snow lying to get a "biggie" (minus 15 to minus 20)

[SMU]

I will go for

-27c Minima - record - you never know-

-14C max

Scotland

elsewhere -- England,wales + Ireland-

-16c Min

-7c max... somwhere in the north midlands-

my locale-

-7c minima

-2c maxima ... hopes-

sunday or monday-

Steve

Edited December 16, 2009 by Steve Murr

[Polar Gael]

This may be a tad optimistic but having seen the GFS 18Z anything is possible!

Lowest max: -13C Braemar.

Lowest min: -23C Altnaharra

Don't think we'll quite make the record on this cold shot, but on the next one, who knows?

[Rob K]

Bump... I see Topcliffe reached -13.3C at 7am, and may have gone lower between obs. -13.1C at 9am.

[Supercell]

Incredibly... Linton-on-ouse (14 m asl, north yorks) was still reporting -8.1C at 12 p.m.

[Optimus Prime]

Current lowest;

Temp.

Cairngorm Mtns (1245 m) -9.0°

Tulloch Bridge (236 m) -7.1°

Aonach Mor (1130 m) -6.8°

Aberdeen/Dyce (69 m) -6.7°

Kinloss (5 m) -5.3°

Sennybridge (307 m) -5.0°

Lossiemouth (6 m) -4.5°

Fylingdales (262 m) -4.1°

Leeds and Bradford AP (208 m) -4°

May well get the -10c tonight again and perhaps a efw degrees lower in some places.

[Nights King]

I recorded a -8.9c air temp over snow fields last night!