Model Output Discussion

[Highland Snow]

Quiet agree mate.

I always appreciate your views on the models because not only do you provide a balanced view but your experience with the models is invaluable.

I strongly urge members to follow Paul B posts on this thread. Last night it must of been very difficult for new members to understand what the hell is going on. So with this in mind stick with Paul B, Nick Sussex, Steve M, John H.

Speaking of Steve M are you still doing a model tracker?

Add TEITS to that list as he is generally at the right end of the stick IMHO.

[Snowstorm1]

An easterly by a majority of the models, the latest 06z GFS rolling out now, downgrades the easterly again, and shunts everything back east and south, and it's more like a SSErly than an easterly, still blooming cold though mate.

mate this is a better run imo it certainly isnt a downgrade the cold air covers more of the country on this run than the 00Z

[TEITS]

Look at the +120 charts from the UKMO/06Z GFS.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

The UKMO has LP just off France which effectively props the HP and prevents the E,ly from sinking i.e 06Z GFS.

[Lewis]

mate this is a better run imo it certainly isnt a downgrade the cold air covers more of the country on this run than the 00Z

Yep your certainly right, although this run would be much "drier", but one upgrade to this one is that it extends the "easterly" although it's not as potent, let's see what happens .

Lewis

[kold weather]

GFS still not very keen on the easterly idea and instead still shunts it south nearly 24hrs faster then the other big two models. As others have said though its a very cold run so far as it gives an ice day widely on Friday, thanks probably due to the very cold night the night before and the presence of high pressure coming in over some cold uppers.

[SnOwFeSt]

Widespread -8 850 air over the country for Thursday and Friday, looking much better than the 00z was. The flow looks a little slack though, which means the really cold stuff (-10 to -15) stays just out over the continent, clipping the south east later in the run. If the main flow of the easterly were shunted just a little further north, we could be in for something very special. Plenty of time for that to happen yet though.

I believe the ECM and METO are going for the flow to be slightly further north, so hopefully the GFS is trending in this direction?

[TEITS]

What ever happens at the end of the week you still cannot help but admire that block at +138.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

I know TOMSE once started a thread about the elusive Greenland HP and yet here it is in all its 1070 MB glory.

[Cloud 10]

Look at the +120 charts from the UKMO/06Z GFS.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

The UKMO has LP just off France which effectively props the HP and prevents the E,ly from sinking i.e 06Z GFS.

Ecm also keen on the more potent easterly at 120,surely we trust the european models on this,or is that just wishful thinking.

[PB22]

A few hints in the early stage of the 06Z GFS that it was nudging towards ECM/UKM, but on the whole it has stuck with its 00Z idea. Whatever way it goes though, it will still be cold or very cold by the end of the week, and some -12C 850hPa air does reach Kent briefly

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs1262.html

With a very cold day on Friday:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs1264.html

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Breathtaking UKMO/ECM very much together this morning in agreement for what looks like an extended cold spell with chances for snow really coming into focus now from the latter part of this week. GFS more progressive, trying to move the upcoming easterly away too fast and trying to break down the cold spell in FI as usual - but any such changes too far away to have much significance and not in line with upsteam signals up to and including the festive period itself..

Once again to be pointed out - much better to look at the outlook collectively than hang on every GFS output and continually comparing one output to the next and getting on the upgrade/downgrade roundabout nonsense

I would expect to see the GFS fall in line with the euros this afternoon or evening in relation to the t120 and t144 period of time

Edited December 13, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[damianslaw]

Thursday is now just about in the reliable timeframe and with ECM and UKMO going for a full blown easterly - the likelihood of this occuring is now becoming more and more likely I say.

GFS seems to be out on a bit of a limb with a fairly weak SE flow only really affecting the SE.

I tend to trust the ECM over GFS whenever blocking is a feature and particularly when the weather is coming in from the continent as someone posted it is the main european model. GFS tends to do better when the atlantic is in charge..

Must say I am loving the ECM forecast an easterly then a northerly with a potent low pushing down to the east bringing a potential snowfest for the north and come very cold uppers indeed - the crucial factor is the greenland high is not going away and we need this to stay in situ if we a re to see a white christmas.

Oh and have you noticed the sub 494 dam air into far NW Russia always pleasing to see, some very cold weather for this part of Europe and N Scandanvia in the coming week, and look where the jet is - superb may it stay where it is right through christmas please.

[cold snap]

Dont Know how many charts ive Downloaded.lol

All modles have predicted this cold snap all at different points.the change being when.last week it was thurs/fri then for a few days in went from mon/tues now will are back to thurs/fri

Glad to see UKMO back on board

[SteveB]

A few hints in the early stage of the 06Z GFS that it was nudging towards ECM/UKM, but on the whole it has stuck with its 00Z idea. Whatever way it goes though, it will still be cold or very cold by the end of the week, and some -12C 850hPa air does reach Kent briefly

http://www.wzkarten..../Rmgfs1262.html

With a very cold day on Friday:

http://www.wzkarten..../Rmgfs1264.html

Paul, isn't it more important to see if the GFS parallel is showing the same as the current GFS, or siding with the Euro's. As it is coming online Tuesday.

What to you think?.

[TEITS]

I cannot stress enough that this cold spell is going to be way different to what we have experienced in recent years.

Normally our cold spells consist of following the models until it reaches +0. We then watch the radar followed by it turning milder in 3days!

This time around its going to be a case of following the models whilst we are experiencing the cold spell if that makes sense. When you have a block over Greenland you need to look N & S because the threat of snow comes from both directions!

[Typhoon John]

Look at the +120 charts from the UKMO/06Z GFS.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

The UKMO has LP just off France which effectively props the HP and prevents the E,ly from sinking i.e 06Z GFS.

The ECM does as well. A case of the GFS not picking up the complexity of the lows and going over the top with the centre over the Azores? You have to go with the Easterly persisting based upon the backup from both the ECM and the UKMO.

Beyond that there's still every indication the cold spell will last until Christmas and evey chance my White Christmas bet will come off

.

Overall some great output this morning and some good discussion on here, maybe I should start missing the 12z and just read about the 00z.

[Tom D]

Much better blocking on this run - the low in the Atlantic is kept well at bay, with lows flying down from the north.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091213/06/159/h850t850eu.png

Looking really promising.

[Frosty.]

Nice Northerly brewing by T+156 hours on the 6z, better ridging south from greenland high. The N'ly looks like being potent for the usual areas. All areas look cold for next week with a mix of rain, sleet and snow but the snow will probably be mostly on hills, at first anyway and nights should be frosty. Northern & Eastern scotland should get an absolute pasting from that Northerly as long as it doesn't downgrade nearer the time.

Edited December 13, 2009 by Frosty039

[cold snap]

I cannot stress enough that this cold spell is going to be way different to what we have experienced in recent years.

Normally our cold spells consist of following the models until it reaches +0. We then watch the radar followed by it turning milder in 3days!

This time around its going to be a case of following the models whilst we are experiencing the cold spell if that makes sense. When you have a block over Greenland you need to look N & S because the threat of snow comes from both directions!

In all your model watching have you ever downloaded so many frames.

Im dreaming models now.this is becoming adictive.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

nice -10's moving south from the north a week today...

[weather eater]

What ever happens at the end of the week you still cannot help but admire that block at +138.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

I know TOMSE once started a thread about the elusive Greenland HP and yet here it is in all its 1070 MB glory.

Absolutely Dave and it's that GH that's the crucial factor, the fact that it's there opens up the way for this to evolve into something special. Evolution is the crucial factor, the point I made yesterday still stands these runs will not verify but they have a chance to evolve into something memorable and for mid December that's plenty good for me, even if they dont quite make it. If this run develops into a near miss situation, there should be no need for anybody to hit the panic button because further evolutions will come in the days ahead.

Edited December 13, 2009 by weather eater

[kold weather]

The GFS doesn't prop up the easterly as well compared to the other big two but then again its not going to flip that quickly generally.

Anyway shortwaves are a big issue on the 06z as they keep preventing the colder air from really coming down. I'd imagine sheer force in the end will shunt the cold air southwards whether it likes it or not!

[Snowyowl9]

Well another 1070 GH like yesterdays 6z but a much drier run which looks different to all other runs seen.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1441.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Pic of the runs of the potent snowy N-ly afterwards will be the GEM/ECM.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rgem1681.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm2401.gif

Edited December 13, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[PB22]

Paul, isn't it more important to see if the GFS parallel is showing the same as the current GFS, or siding with the Euro's. As it is coming online Tuesday.

What to you think?.

I would certainly like to see the GFS parallel come more into line with the UKMO and ECM, and would certainly give more consideration to its output now - we'll see what it comes up with in the next few minutes!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1

[swilliam]

What ever happens at the end of the week you still cannot help but admire that block at +138.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1381.png

I know TOMSE once started a thread about the elusive Greenland HP and yet here it is in all its 1070 MB glory.

Indeed - Steve Murr's breakfast sausage which he was discussing several days ago.

Stewart

[Frosty.]

It stays cold for longer on the 6z, a nice little upgrade there. Second half of the coming week is now looking bitterly cold with some snow for the south and east but scotland could have blizzards later once the N'ly kicks in with small troughs enhancing the snow potential how lucky are we really, an easterly followed by a northerly :lol:

Just look at the differences in deep FI between the 00z-06z gfs, its laughable in a way but it follows the ecm idea closely.

Edited December 13, 2009 by Frosty039