Model Output Discussion

[cj114]

With so many models, four times a day, its bound to be fluctuating. But in the internet age people want something positive everyday.

The weather is not like that! Never has been and never will, we are a small Island with probably the most "interesting" weather going, we have the west which our weather mostly comes from, then Europe which brings warm in summer then cold in winter, neither of which are set in stone.

As for "Modern winters", they are only so because of the time they are in, like a Coat which is "Modern" at the time of making.

We have possibly the most interesting weather in western Europe. We should be grateful, every day is a joy of differences.

Models are great, they give an idea of what is to come, but just an Idea!

I still remember the winter of 62/63, I was 3, but the fires in the bedrooms were lit throughout the winter and my Mum stood on the Stoop talking to the Coalman when the temp reached 5c telling him how warm it was! My Father reckoned the heating took three quarters of his wage that winter.

In an age where we all have central heating etc, this looks exciting, but in '81 when all I had was a Gas Fire and a cooker which I wore my coat when cooking it was not funny either, plus watching the ice creeping up the glass on the INSIDE every night was not nice either.

A "Downgrade" would be better for most people, as power companies are so expensive now.

Sorry mods. Off topic.

Will look again tomorrow, but still hopeful for this not to be too much of a winter gone by.

[kumquat]

Babies are probably infinitely more interesting than the NS equations haha but I don't envy you one bit! BTW I hail from Wellingborough and know Rushden well. Worked there for a couple of years - Portland Road!

I'm very encouraged by the ECM 12z today. It seems to me that after the glitches of the last couple of days that its been tampered with by human hands - lol.

But that would not compute.

Anyway - I'm still betting on Snow in Bristol Thurs/Fr and the nice cold spell going to continue up until Christmas.

Unbelievable to see these synoptics getting into the reliable and just great to see the back of the wet and warmish mush.

[andy_leics22]

Hmmm the 00z GFS run has downgraded the Easterly even more Dear oh dear.

[Snowmad79]

Hmmm the 00z GFS run has downgraded the Easterly even more Dear oh dear.

Looks that way mate, its still likey to be cold even though we'll have to consider ourselves lucky that we get tickled by -5 uppers Judging by that 00z GFS. I wont be bothering watching the rest of the run becuase that puts us beyond next Friday. Our friendly Mr Greenland High decides to block the shotwave up north causing it too stall it would appear rather than slide southwards, which it pobably does in FI

[Optimus Prime]

The GFS has done really poor modelling these outcomes. First we get a good easterly for Sunday-Wednesday which was changed to a complete an utter non-event with coolish air and now we have the NE downgraded once more to a cold spell rather then a very cold spell (which I'm also certain it would have been pre 1997)

Although this does make me chuckle...all the hype on this event and it will probably come to nothing more then what we usually get from an easterly, just a more prolonged version with much better synoptics.

The main problem I feel being the warm SSTS. Crap Goverment, Crap weather and crap country lol.

[Baynesey (snow chaser)]

i have very limited knowledge of the models....and really cant say if this is a downgrade or upgrade.....

eariler on in the run the SE seems to hold on the the -5 long the the 18z but does look as good for the rest of the uk

then

later on thursday time.... the colder uppers seem to stay away in the north sea...

but

the cold on this run at t120 does seem to be heading more sw instead of south like it did on the 18z, so at least the colder air is near by the the longer term!!

[Optimus Prime]

Looks that way mate, its still likey to be cold even though we'll have to consider ourselves lucky that we get tickled by -5 uppers Judging by that 00z GFS. I wont be bothering watching the rest of the run becuase that puts us beyond next Friday. Our friendly Mr Greenland High decides to block the shotwave up north causing it too stall it would appear rather than slide southwards, which it pobably does in FI

I shan't worry. The usual suspects will be on here soon to let us know how good that Northerly looks at 144 hours. Then we'll back to the usual pointless ramping and uber hypeness.

One vicious cycle every winter.

Edited December 13, 2009 by Optimus Prime

[tom_f123]

Poor run with little in the way of snow.

Edited December 13, 2009 by tom_f123

[The Eagle]

GFS trending toward ECM. UKMO is awesome tonight (00z)

Fantastic runs.

[David-kig]

run is different wouldnt say poor though. that northenly looks cold. the easterly is abit longer. upper temperture aint so cold but its longer lasting and still cold. i think it were a better runthen the 18z overall

[Optimus Prime]

You are joking...right?

[SMU]

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-180.png?0

well TBH--- I dont see the point of people staying up & then posting that everything is a downgrade- If you dont like charts evolving & chopping + changing at 120 then dont look in pandoras box-

The bottom line is we have the continental air arriving midweek along with it the chance of snow ( parallel is good as well) come the end of the week we will have some sub -5c dewpoints over the UK & some bitter temps-there will be more ppn around than people think-

With a chart like the above I will take that to the bank-

An exciting week- I dont know how people have the ordacity to scoff when we have something like this lot on our doorstep-

S

[David-kig]

http://91.121.94.83/...snh-0-180.png?0

well TBH--- I dont see the point of people staying up & then posting that everything is a downgrade- If you dont like charts evolving & chopping + changing at 120 then dont look in pandoras box-

The bottom line is we have the continental air arriving midweek along with it the chance of snow ( parallel is good as well) come the end of the week we will have some sub -5c dewpoints over the UK & some bitter temps-there will be more ppn around than people think-

With a chart like the above I will take that to the bank-

An exciting week- I dont know how people have the ordacity to scoff when we have something like this lot on our doorstep-

S

steve i think its overall its better then 18z personally. that northley looks really cold if im looking at ot correctly nt a bad run

Edited December 13, 2009 by David-kig

[Optimus Prime]

Once again we're looking forward for decent cold. The easterly is looking good but considering what we could have got (and I'm sure we would have got 20 years ago) it's nothing special.

After the easterly it wouldn't surprise me if the atlantic starts making headway back in. Plenty of cold and snow for the continent while the UK stays in the much less cold zone with he cold staying more and more east.

[The Eagle]

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-180.png?0

well TBH--- I dont see the point of people staying up & then posting that everything is a downgrade- If you dont like charts evolving & chopping + changing at 120 then dont look in pandoras box-

The bottom line is we have the continental air arriving midweek along with it the chance of snow ( parallel is good as well) come the end of the week we will have some sub -5c dewpoints over the UK & some bitter temps-there will be more ppn around than people think-

With a chart like the above I will take that to the bank-

An exciting week- I dont know how people have the ordacity to scoff when we have something like this lot on our doorstep-

S

Like I said GFS has trended to ECM. UKMO looks great. Check it out.

[Snowmad79]

I shan't worry. The usual suspects will be on here soon to let us know how good that Northerly looks at 144 hours. Then we'll back to the usual pointless ramping and uber hypeness.

One vicious cycle every winter.

If Im honest I do usually look more at 144+ but with these setups i dont think its wise too because as others have said many times before things can change for the worse or the better at a closer time frame than that. Also, this has to be the first poor GFS run I have viewed since the HP retrogression was nailed so maybe its just the GFS turn to have a wobbler ?. Either way having seen the full run now which I was adamant I wasnt going to do this will still be a fairly sustained colder period and even if the atlantic does show its face later I still believe it could turn into a reload senario.

[SMU]

GREAT UKMO

Like I said--- just wait & see........

s

Edited December 13, 2009 by Steve Murr

[The Eagle]

Since no one can be bothered checking the UKMO

Not only trended to ECM but exceeded it!

Edited December 13, 2009 by The Eagle

[Optimus Prime]

GREAT UKMO

s

Yeah it is and how reliable is the UKMO? I don't class it as particularly good when you compare it to the GFS and more especially ECM (ECM being the voice of reason at the moment)

I'll be awaiting the ECM that's the only model I have trust in at the moment.

[The Eagle]

Yeah it is and how reliable is the UKMO? I don't class it as particularly good when you compare it to the GFS and more especially ECM (ECM being the voice of reason at the moment)

Did you just fall out of a tree? The point is GFS and UKMO have moved toward the ECM 12z. 00z is coming up but this is vital that they are so similar now. Just a kittle tweaking needed.

[The Eagle]

GEM trending toward ECM at 48hrs - ECM is King. About time more realised that.

[Kiwi]

UKMO and ECM seem great....and this GFS run does seem to be moving towards that

..... looking foward to the 06z run already!!

(It's really coming to something when I wake at 5am to check up on the lateast GFS run -- the wife thinks I've lost it .... and is promising me an anorak and straight-jacket from Santa!)

[Iceberg]

I really can't understand anybody complaining about the lack of snow in this set up, it's wed, thurs, fri and onwards.

Meto has finally fallen in line after playing down the snow due to pushing HP over the country, this time the LP comes in properly and we even get a nice easterly as well. Good agreement with ECM and GFS.

Very very nice.

I missed some of the models yesterday due to Christmas preperation but these look very good.

[Eugene]

I really can't understand anybody complaining about the lack of snow in this set up, it's wed, thurs, fri and onwards.

Meto has finally fallen in line after playing down the snow due to pushing HP over the country, this time the LP comes in properly and we even get a nice easterly as well. Good agreement with ECM and GFS.

Very very nice.

I missed some of the models yesterday due to Christmas preperation but these look very good.

LOL, don't tell me iceberg people were expecting snow with an anticyclone dominating the country that just started two days ago, excellent runs this morning, please tell me mild breakdown fans that you are confident of a breakdown with charts at T+144 hrs like this even this is past FI in a blocking setup.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

[BOMBHEADS]

I think the GFS is over cooking the breakdown, it all happens very very quickly, before you know it the whole of EU is warm again, i can't see this coming off, not of course saying we won't become warmer, i think we will, but in the process will see a good dumping of snow. Lets hope though that the METO has got there 16 day forecast right, and that the cold does stick around over christmax, would be nice to see for a change.