Cold Spell Discussion

[Tim Bland]

Latest BBC forecast now talking of sleety mix on Weds then dry and cloudy for Thurs / friday appart from the far north East. Seems to have downgraded since this morning CF forecast

[fine wine]

Well, imagine if we had a repeat of this! One can only dream!!! http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ba0_1234844438

[MAF]

Latest BBC forecast now talking of sleety mix on Weds then dry and cloudy for Thurs / friday appart from the far north East. Seems to have downgraded since this morning CF forecast

and now getting to the point of night where there will be no more "live" forecasts. BBC will have recorded forecasts through the night and then update them in the morning

[Nights King]

When do we all get our regional snow watch threads?

It is good because you don't get lost in south east and london snow reports and there chances ect.

I have a feeling we may need them soon....

[Geordiesnow]

i'm becoming more and more convinced that our once "beast from the east" will be no more than just a "tickle from the east".

This run also demonstrates why some may not be happy with a slacker flow because we can develop little milder sectors turning things more marginal. I do think snowfall might be a possibility but nothing to severe i would of thought.

I hope the models don't downgrade any northerly potential though, would be nice to have a screaming Northerly that does not downgrade.

I would also not worry about PPN at this stage Tim, it's all about radar watching but i don't expect big masses of showers though and with a slacker flow, they won't head all that far inland before dying out i would of thought.

[Ben_Cambs]

Some bad shouts

-10 Uppers reach EA by Friday morning!

Snow charts look great for Friday in EA and the SE!!!And there is a short extension of about 6 hours of the Easterly, and at T+123, you can see the Northerly come in

Edited December 13, 2009 by Snowman0697

[suffolkboy_]

Currently -0.3C here, so if we see a shower it should be of snow as the dewpoints are ofcourse low enough. Seen plenty of showers through the day, typical there are none now! Winds way too light

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I feel the northerly will happen, northerlies always tend to arrive at weekends, but snow amounts uncertain yet

[J10]

Dont look good for swales easterlies no good for us.The best we could hope for is transient snow, if the Lp over Portugal heads north over xmas.

Last year we did very well out of an Easterly set up,and there is every chance there there may be a trough that pushes across to us, although certainly Eastern areas are favoured in this instance.

And of course there is a potent NW airflow pushing in after the initial Easterly for the early part of next weekend. We do very well out of such setups, and this has been the main source of snow locally so far this decade.

Of course, everything is subject to change over the next few days.

[Nights King]

How far west does that ppn with the possible snow event move west into central southern western areas tues night/wed?

Does the snow risk transfer west? or is it a no hoper for west country?

[SouthernSnow]

deffo getting colder

[Simon SWales]

Last year we did very well out of an Easterly set up,and there is every chance there there may be a trough that pushes across to us, although certainly Eastern areas are favoured in this instance.

And of course there is a potent NW airflow pushing in after the initial Easterly for the early part of next weekend. We do very well out of such setups, and this has been the main source of snow locally so far this decade.

Of course, everything is subject.

Hi Jackone

If my memory serves me well, wasn't Jan 1982 (the best winter in terms of snowfall in South Wales)caused by an Easterly?

[Snow Queen one]

I have watched the charts for the best part of 5 days now whilst fighting a chest infection due to swine flu. I am feeling a little deflated about the weather at the moment as i would have loved a good dumping of snow it would have got me out of jury service next week. I keep seeing people talk about the charts but the really good cold and snow event still always seems to be outside reliable time frame. I know that we cannot predict snow till very near the time but the easterly just seems never to arrive. As usual the north will do best and good luck to them i am old enough to rember some really good snowfalls and if i am honest apart from getting out of jury service i would not want the type of snow we had in 81 or 87 down here.

[asnowyclassic]

When do we all get our regional snow watch threads?

It is good because you don't get lost in south east and london snow reports and there chances ect.

I have a feeling we may need them soon....

I think this is a great idea!!!

[dogs32]

I think this is a great idea!!!

awesome.....charts...really superb

[keithlucky]

Hi Jackone

If my memory serves me well, wasn't Jan 1982 (the best winter in terms of snowfall in South Wales)caused by an Easterly?

Yes freakish conditions the weather front stalled over swales given 20 foot snow drifts.

[damianslaw]

i'm becoming more and more convinced that our once "beast from the east" will be no more than just a "tickle from the east".

This run also demonstrates why some may not be happy with a slacker flow because we can develop little milder sectors turning things more marginal. I do think snowfall might be a possibility but nothing to severe i would of thought.

I hope the models don't downgrade any northerly potential though, would be nice to have a screaming Northerly that does not downgrade.

I would also not worry about PPN at this stage Tim, it's all about radar watching but i don't expect big masses of showers though and with a slacker flow, they won't head all that far inland before dying out i would of thought.

Living in the NE for a number of years I remember many a time when sudden snow showers developed on an easterly flow when not expected, I wouldn't feel too downbeat at the potential, it is looking very good for Tyne and Wear, the relatively warm North Sea is going to enhance the chance of heavy convection and consequently heavy snow showers. Even more so the progged northerly would certainly deliver some heavy snow showers or longer spells of snow for your area, potent northerlies are great for delivering snow to the NE.

I have a keen eye on the prospects for Tyne and Wear as I will be heading to Newcastle Thursday evening until Monday, an easterly then a northerly gosh I am going to be spoilt!

[Snowy Bob]

Having been following weather patterns for the past five years, but being a snow lover for all my life, I have experienced three super snow events in that I can remember (February 1991, December 1996 (I think) and February 1998) - and countless near misses - if I can't notice the difference between the road and the path, then that will do me!

[Neilsouth]

IF and thats a big IF it does snow this week , i'll get my christmas carols on... let it snow let it snow

[mountain shadow]

Going by the 18z, you can stick your half baked easterlies. Much better with a prolonged arctic northerly for widespread chaos.

Looking forward to he BBC2 traffic reports this week with the south east just down after a few cm's of sna'.

[kold weather]

What is becoming increasingly clear is there will be some sort of precip about the country for Thursday and Friday, mainly in the east it has to be said, but still looks quite interesting. The ECM and UKMO both hold an easterly airflow for at least 12-18hrs, which is more then enough to knock up a few inches of the white stuff, the GFS however brings in a shortwave instead which has pretty much the same effect.

Going to be a very interesting few days to see what occurs.

Also odds looking increasingly good for a very cold 4-5 day period (maybe longer...) where ice days are possible and the overall mean of the CET could come in below 0C. It'll certainly be one of the colder spells of the 2000s that seems probable.

[Nights King]

Wow the snow risk charts have got high risk all the way through to 320hr almost! For the whole country as well.

This cold spell has exhausted me and it has not even started yet.

[Geordiesnow]

It could be so much worse....11 years ago today. If you were on "Deal or No Deal?" would you swap today for that????

Obviously what we got now but from what we could of had then it's not really that good but probably still good enough for some places to get a dusting or a light covering at least.

Living in the NE for a number of years I remember many a time when sudden snow showers developed on an easterly flow when not expected, I wouldn't feel too downbeat at the potential, it is looking very good for Tyne and Wear, the relatively warm North Sea is going to enhance the chance of heavy convection and consequently heavy snow showers. Even more so the progged northerly would certainly deliver some heavy snow showers or longer spells of snow for your area, potent northerlies are great for delivering snow to the NE.

I have a keen eye on the prospects for Tyne and Wear as I will be heading to Newcastle Thursday evening until Monday, an easterly then a northerly gosh I am going to be spoilt!

Problem is that with the flow being slacker, warm sectors pop up therefore making things a bit more marginal. The positive is though that with a slacker flow that you can get a more lenghty shower which would be great if the shower is one of snow.

[Schnee]

The best falls usually happen at night, if I remember my childhood...

I'll be looking for PPN moving during the night or early hours, when the cold snap is in full swing.

[damianslaw]

Obviously what we got now but from what we could of had then it's not really that good but probably still good enough for some places to get a dusting or a light covering at least.

Problem is that with the flow being slacker, warm sectors pop up therefore making things a bit more marginal. The positive is though that with a slacker flow that you can get a more lenghty shower which would be great if the shower is one of snow.

Won't be much warm sector I feel the 528 dam line will have ebbed its way onto the coast, perhaps the very extreme coastal eedge may see more wet snow, but I worry be too dispondent at the prospects.

If the easterly does prove to be a bit lacklustre, don't fear because the northerly following has the potential to be a wild beast with troughs embedded within and potential polar low forming, I'd be very surprised if by Saturday Tyne and Wear has not got some snow cover.