North West England Cold Spell Discussion

[snowingtequila]

the rain is a lot heavier that I expected this afternoon, not too cold though, maximum of 4.5C today, fallen back a bit now it is dark. I did expect just a bit of drizzle today though.

[cheshire cat]

Hi C.

Lymme Park with the kids I think sunday afternoon, unless you know of anywhere else that wont be as busy?

Enjoy the skiing.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I bet Mr Darcy won't be jumping into the lake this weekend?

[Cric_lancster]

For coastal areas it does look like the Saturday snow potential is the wrong side of marginal, inland may be a different story. Have noticed the Met Office have an Early Warning for snow in the North-West on Sunday - Baby steps and another good sign.

Early next week shows even more potential looking at the GFS 12z, having just seen the UKMO & ECM 0z these additionally hold good potential for the NW early next week, IMBY hopefully the temperatures can start to play ball and get the right side of marginal for us snow starved Coastal* areas in the past few years...

For those who may worry about how being near the coast can affect them, I take solace from the number of times I've seen it snow 4 miles inland in Lancaster while it rains in Morecambe right on the coast.

Edited December 16, 2009 by Cric_lancster

[carinthian]

Hi C.

Lymme Park with the kids I think sunday afternoon, unless you know of anywhere else that wont be as busy?

Enjoy the skiing.

Teggs Nose country park just outside Macclesfield, i remember was good for the old sledges or a walk up Shuttlingslow ( the Cheshire Matterhorn)quite an easy ascent from the Macclesfield Forest car park.

A bit too cold for ski-ing today with -15C at the top brrr.

C

[SP1986]

I do expect Ill get some heavy snow off the charts shown this evening, but the 06z suggested to me that wouldn't be the case so it's constantly changing from run to run

[cheshire snow]

NW states 85% chance of Snow for my location Tomorrow from 06.00?

Cannot see that happening LOL

Weekend looking more and more promising

Local forecast at lunch time said a very wintry weekend ahead

C.S

[weatherobsuk]

GFS Forecasting giving a 90% chance of slight wintry precip for tomorrow afternoon around Midday. However its not the snowfall im keeping a eye on but the temperatures, with recent rains and forecast daytime minimums of -4'c (-10'c in the windchill) I'd expect Icing on Public Transport sectors and pavements to be of some considerable concern to the local Councils tomorrow.

[cheshire cat]

I bet Mr Darcy won't be jumping into the lake this weekend?

Very good!

I was brought up nr the NY Moors so knew of loads of great slopes that didn't get too busy, NW is a little flatter around me, S Manchester, so aim to get out an about.

Seriously, as usual, GFS picks up the trend, ECM verifies it, Meto locks it in, GFS wobbles, then all three upgrade nearer the time. Something for everyone in the next few days.

Don't post as much on the model thread, but what a couple of weeks this has been, ups and downs but we're on the cusp finally.

Scandy High for Xmas, reload, I think so.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Ok, time to be blunt - how's east Cumbria looking...the Pennine bit?

[SP1986]

Nothing for Carlisle I'm afraid OON!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I wouldn't want any there - the thought of Thundersnow getting sleet would be the best Christmas present I could ask for.

45 miles away and 600ft up however...

[stoke weather watch]

How will Macclesfield do with Snow?

[carinthian]

How will Macclesfield do with Snow?

Hi,

Some really cold air crossing the Pennines tomorrow afternoon with a good chances of snow flurries in The Cheshire

Peaks. Sunday looks best bet with the wind flow holding more moisture.

C

[wysiwyg]

How will Macclesfield do with Snow?

Probably grind to a halt like the rest of the country

( sorry couldn't resist!!! )

[snowingtequila]

Probably grind to a halt like the rest of the country

( sorry couldn't resist!!! )

we never grind to a halt, we never started moving

[k19]

we never grind to a halt, we never started moving

Interesting, does anyone have any idea of what it would take to close airports etc? Im going away next week

[AderynCoch]

7C at Liverpool Airport today after a low of 4C. It's not even cold, never mind wintry!

The models had better deliver this weekend or else. Mildness has become an endemic infection round these parts - it just won't go away, even when there's signifcantly cold air not too far away.

[Spurry]

Interesting, does anyone have any idea of what it would take to close airports etc? Im going away next week

A stray unattended suitcase or a bomb threat maybe :)

Only joking by the way in case the anti-terrorist squad are lurking

[Solar Cycles]

Interesting, does anyone have any idea of what it would take to close airports etc? Im going away next week

A strike!!!

[AderynCoch]

Interesting, does anyone have any idea of what it would take to close airports etc? Im going away next week

Liverpool Airport was shut down in December 2000. I don't know how much fell exactly but we got a real dumping that day. Only the battleground event of February 1996 strikes me as being heavier in the past twenty years.

[Snowmad79]

Interesting, does anyone have any idea of what it would take to close airports etc? Im going away next week

Yeah .. "A day after tomorrow" type event , why ? because us notherners are tough .

12z GFS shows theres a chance of snow showers tomorrow morning for our region as a band of slow moving precip passes through the NW from the North East. As the band moves into and through the region it will initially be drizzle to start with before colder 850's start to dig in and dew points fall to 0c and below.Thicknesses also become supportive for wintery precip.

South and eastern parts of Cumbria, Lancashire, Greater Manchester and northern parts of Cheshire may well see drizzle turn to light snow showers that could last a few hours. Coastal areas and areas surrounding liverpool will probably struggle to see wintry precip at first due to the drop in dew points lagging behind, this may also be the case for Cheshire. That said, most of the NW region should see something wintry by the time the precip dies out around midday tomorrow.

From Midday onwards keep your eyes peeled where ever you live in the NW becuase all conditions will be ripe for snow so it will be a case of checking the radars etc to see whether any precip will be passing your way.

[cheshire snow]

K.1000

I work at Man Airport and believe or not it does not take alot of Snow to close the runway

In my 15 years of working there the airport has been clossed on quite a few occasions

Whilst the snow ploughs clear the runway and taxi-ways my advise if we get any serious Snowfall

is to ring your airline before seting of as you may find your plane elsewere

C.S

[Snow free zone]

Slightly confused here. Heard the local forecast tonight on the way home. Mentioned a cold dry and beautifully sunny day tomorrow. Max temps 3-4c and 20mph NE winds. Does not at all fit in with what GFS is saying, but more confusing was the outlook for the weekend "dry cold and sunny" with the odd wintry shower

Could have been an old forecast, but it was on BBC local radio.

[damianslaw]

Ok, time to be blunt - how's east Cumbria looking...the Pennine bit?

Very much will depend on the tracking of any snow showers that develop over the Pennines, they could easily peter out over the Pennines and not make it into Cumbria, there again the Pennines may actually pep them up a bit - temperatures will not be a problem for snow cover to settle in East Cumbria.

My attention is more for Sunday and early next week in general, conditions are looking ideal for widespread heavy snow showers or longer spells of snow over much of the Lake District. We will have a cold source of air, a NW feed so convection from the Irish Sea and the winds won't be that strong so any snow showers will be very slow moving - trust me in such conditions we can be deposited with high snowfall quantities - the media won't be interested because by then the snow risk will have moved away from the SE and in favour of the north and more particularly the NW and Scotland.

Don't be too dissapointed if we don't see much from this easterly our time will come at the end of the week and into next week.