North West England Cold Spell Discussion

[snowingtequila]

Yet another let down for the north west. 2 weather types effect us here......rain and wind with rain and nothing else. I really cannot believe it. Every where else is getting sub zero and snow and what do we get 5c and fing rain. This is sooo depressing i just wanna scream!!!!

how can you say another letdown for the northwest so soon into the cold spell, how jolly silly. Anything could happen yet. Places aren't getting sub zero and snow at the moment anyway

[Dingwantssnow]

Judging by METO Friday night will be the coldest night with -3 then 6c by Sat day and then 5c By Sat night. If its wrong then good but if not then thats a let down considering what the models have been feeding us recently dont u think?

Dont get me wrong anything is better then the SW's we have been getting but still to be consistantly showing cold or even very cold only for the METO to be right.........

Edited December 15, 2009 by Dingwantssnow

[trickydicky]

Ive been to Cornwall in the summer, and it's mostly always raining, below 16C much of the time. The only thing Cornwall has over us is Thunderstorms.

Lets cheer up though, the fact NW England is being measured to Cornwall is a sobering thing, - best snapped out of!

The BBC dont seem to going for much snow but I still think it is possible we could see a surprise. They tend not to factor troughs in at the moment, only fronts, I imagine there's lots of time for it to change in our favour.

The BBC forecasts are yet to forecast me a frost yet and last night was my first since Thursday without one. Their website forecasts tend to be about as reliable as a Soviet nuclear reactor and always over do max temps and underdo min temps. However, if there is a warm sector to be had anywhere, then i'm fairly sure it will find its way to us. I've got a miserable feeling all we will see is slizzle.

I rate the Cornish Tourist Board very highly, how they manage to get millions and millions of people to visit there year after year despite the near constant low cloud and drizzle is a miracle.

[Cric_lancster]

I wouldn't be too downbeat about chances this weekend. Living in one of the least snowy areas in Britain despite our latitiude is obviously very frustrating, especially when opportunities for snow seem to hit everywhere except here! However if you set your expectations low, often the odd flurry can be a pleasant surprise. I wouldn't worry too much about the models showing a warm sector at the moment for Sunday/Monday, Perhaps I'd be a bit cheesed off if it re-appears/strengthens however there's plenty of time for improvements.

East Lancashire, Most of Cumbria, West Yorkshire, Cheshire and Greater Manchester you'd've thought would have the greater chance of the white stuff

West Cumbria, Merseyside and the West Coast of Lancashire would have the greater chance of sleet or rain rather than snow. I wouldn't worry to much at the moment of course as our window will change over the coming days, hopefully for the better. If the Northerly strengthens or the lows to the North move further south and east, our potential warm sector may have less of an effect on coastal areas.

As I've mentioned I still believe a number in the North-West may receive a surprise on Thursday night/Friday if the odd wintry shower claws its way over the Pennines.

Plenty to play for in the coming days....

Edited December 15, 2009 by Cric_lancster

[SP1986]

I know exactly what you mean TD, we're usually either too far north, too far south or too far west!

Currently 5.1C at the moment, balmy!

[cheshire snow]

Erm... when does this cold spell start?

How anyone can write of something that not happened yet is totally beyond me

May as well close this thread now all doom and gloom

C.S

[Snow free zone]

Saturday looks like it could deliver the goods on this run ! for all of us now where have i heard that before

[cheshire snow]

Saturday looks like it could deliver the goods on this run ! for all of us now where have i heard that before

Great run so far PPN id an upgrade aswell

C.S

[swainclubber]

Great run so far PPN id an upgrade aswell

C.S

thursday morning looks ok too all will prob change tho lol

Edited December 15, 2009 by swainclubber

[SP1986]

Erm... when does this cold spell start?

How anyone can write of something that not happened yet is totally beyond me

May as well close this thread now all doom and gloom

C.S

Maybe for you, and good luck if you do, but the coastal areas looks exceptionally borderline.

[cheshire snow]

thursday morning looks ok too all will prob change tho lol

Possibly will change slighty run to run mate

The way i see it is the E kicking of tomorrow then come Sat look North

Fri a possible ice day and mainly dry

Sat max temp 2c with snow on and of all day

C.S

[swainclubber]

Possibly will change slighty run to run mate

The way i see it is the E kicking of tomorrow then come Sat look North

Fri a possible ice day and mainly dry

Sat max temp 2c with snow on and of all day

C.S

yeah thats for sure, so long as the temps are right and there is precip about and the off chance of catching a stray shower on the easterly i will be happy. For me saturday can wait as it will defo change for the worse or the better so i am not looking at that for now

Edited December 15, 2009 by swainclubber

[Solar Cycles]

The northerly looks the best bet for NW England (and I include myself in that), but as a whole we are going to get less snow than virtually all other areas because even Wales and SW England will do better when the flow turns direct northerly as looks likely on Sunday/Monday.

Isn't that nearly always the case though Ian, if ever a region deserved a snowfest , then surely it should be us! Edited December 15, 2009 by Solar Cycles

[AderynCoch]

6C again today, and it doesn't look like it'll go below freezing tonight.

Lame.

[Solar Cycles]

It's difficult though Solar because we need ideally a Polar NWerley and they are transient in nature and tend to be followed by the toppling scenario.

I was reading an article a couple of years back about the 62/63 winter and I was surprised at how little snow there was in NW areas particular West of Manchester and how much more snow there was around Birmingham than there was here. This is because to maintain a cold pattern we need lows to take a southerly track and spin off, and we are too far North to get the PPN from these systems. And too far South to get the snow showers that affect Scotland.

78/79 was as good as it gets, for that very reason I seem to recall! Even those lengthy spells of cold during the eighties, produced little in the way off snow, except for the inevitable breakdown! Mind you, January 84 was a fantastic month for cold and snow, as I seem to recall!

[wysiwyg]

78/79 was as good as it gets, for that very reason I seem to recall! Even those lengthy spells of cold during the eighties, produced little in the way off snow, except for the inevitable breakdown! Mind you, January 84 was a fantastic month for cold and snow, as I seem to recall!

I was in hospital in Southport in Jan 1984 and I remember it snowing there - SOUTHPORT!!!!!!!

[les1234]

Any snow will be a bonus even good hard frosts will do ,but i have a feeling about this week and i think we will all get what we want.

[Snow free zone]

Well in terms of potential for us here in the NW the 12z GFS run is certainly an upgrade. How it pans out remains to be seen, but after what i said this morning i have probably just scuppered all our chances in telling the kids there's a possibility we'll get a bit of snow over the weekend - apologies in advance :lol:

[Jan]

Radar is currently showing sleet very near me.

[damianslaw]

The easterly flow on Thursday looks to be intensifying which will certainly increase the chances of one or two showers making it over the Pennines, so eastern Lancs, east Cumbria and North Peak District areas and east Manchester could easily see some snow showers overnight Thursday, areas further west though I doubt will likely see any showers.

Here in the Lake District we can see some homegrown showers when there is a strong NE wind helped the local topography certainly the eastern fells will see some sharp snow showers I imagine which often do penetrate into SE Cumbria.

Looking further ahead, Saturday into Sunday is looking a better bet for the regions snow prospects, Cumbria and Pennine Districts no doubt will get the heaviest snow, but I'd be surprised if once the front clears through most places haven't some sort of snow cover.

Even further ahead the northerly does look to slacken but everything will depend on the wind direction if it turns slightly more NNW then chances of showers from NW will increase.

One thing to factor into account in a northerly flow is for the sudden development of troughs which spring out of nowhere.

The run up to christmas is looking very interesting with some sort of attack likely from the atlantic but increasing signs it is going to get stalled against the cold air to the north, potential battleground situation with undercutting a real possibility - prospects to relish for widespread heavy snow.

I must add the BBC forecast for the NW just now, how abymsal there were just saying one or two wintry showers over the weekend and nothing else - they seem very sure of themselves, what script are they reading from - watch them backtrack by end of the week BBC credibility gone out the window I feel.

Edited December 15, 2009 by damianslaw

[snowingtequila]

The easterly flow on Thursday looks to be intensifying which will certainly increase the chances of one or two showers making it over the Pennines, so eastern Lancs, east Cumbria and North Peak District areas and east Manchester could easily see some snow showers overnight Thursday, areas further west though I doubt will likely see any showers.

Here in the Lake District we can see some homegrown showers when there is a strong NE wind helped the local topography certainly the eastern fells will see some sharp snow showers I imagine which often do penetrate into SE Cumbria.

Looking further ahead, Saturday into Sunday is looking a better bet for the regions snow prospects, Cumbria and Pennine Districts no doubt will get the heaviest snow, but I'd be surprised if once the front clears through most places haven't some sort of snow cover.

Even further ahead the northerly does look to slacken but everything will depend on the wind direction if it turns slightly more NNW then chances of showers from NW will increase.

One thing to factor into account in a northerly flow is for the sudden development of troughs which spring out of nowhere.

The run up to christmas is looking very interesting with some sort of attack likely from the atlantic but increasing signs it is going to get stalled against the cold air to the north, potential battleground situation with undercutting a real possibility - prospects to relish for widespread heavy snow.

I must add the BBC forecast for the NW just now, how abymsal there were just saying one or two wintry showers over the weekend and nothing else - they seem very sure of themselves, what script are they reading from - watch them backtrack by end of the week BBC credibility gone out the window I feel.

that guarantees snow then, I have seen them forecast wintry flurries when I am snowed in and last year a warning for heavy snow just as the thaw set in.

[Bartlett Low]

I must add the BBC forecast for the NW just now, how abymsal there were just saying one or two wintry showers over the weekend and nothing else - they seem very sure of themselves, what script are they reading from - watch them backtrack by end of the week BBC credibility gone out the window I feel.

It wasn't much of a forecast was it? I'm presuming Ms Oxbury has been informed/is of the opinion that it will stay largely dry in the North West. Even sitting on the fence if it was me I would have mentioned a fair chance of snow over the weekend for some areas of the Northwest at least.

In truth I was hoping for a forecast as early 80s in style as those purple boots she was wearing!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I'll stick my neck out and say towns such as Oldham/Rochdale etc will see snow showers Thur and maybe thur night.

These areas tend to get penetrated in an Easterly and the bbc forecast showed plenty of inland shower activity.

West of the region looks dry in the main with wintry showers posible over the weekend.

Looks mainly dry and cold after that with isolated snow showers Sat/Sun.

After that who knows.

[k19]

hmmmm i watched the bbc too, they seem very reluctant to go past wednesday, infact they only showed a 23 hour forecast, and to be honest i think they're uncertain. Im at the coast and in easterlies we never get laying snow, but it DOES snow very often, I also expect the weather to be a lot more positive for us over the weekend, and just out of curiousitywhy does a breakdown of a weather system cause frontal snow? and would it be a cold front?

[Dingwantssnow]

Crikey big turn around on the models now. If we take what the ECM and GFS 12z runs are showing now, would we be in for heavy snow or just marginal snow.?