North West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Weather-history]

Next Monday it stating 11cm of Snow and an overnight low of -12c

Not improbable ala late December 2000, it got down to -9C at Manchester Airport, my back garden -14C

Also late December 1995 with virtually no snowcover -12C at Manchester Airport.

Its within the realms of possibilty.

[Bartlett Low]

I reckon the 18z is way over the top, it's just showing a bizarre run, against all others, it'll be changed by tomorrow.

Undoubtably will have changed by the morning, and probably won't look so good for the North West. But there have been quite a few runs showing winds veering NWly then Wly. With the cold airmass still over us by then there has to be a chance for some fairly prolonged snow off of that kind of set-up.

I think though that should something roughly like the 18z happen there may be some milder air dragged in from the west at the same time making things a bit more marginal. Who knows, but we are at the races for sure, not likely to be watching everything slip east by 300 miles.

[cheshire snow]

Not improbable ala late December 2000, it got down to -9C at Manchester Airport, my back garden -14C

Also late December 1995 with virtually no snowcover -12C at Manchester Airport.

Its within the realms of possibilty.

Blimey i work at Manchester Airport and dont remember that

Thanks for the information

C.S

[Thundery wintry showers]

Your probably right. what was the setup last year? In february, because we managed at least some from that

I'm thinking of overnight 27th/28th January 2004 and also overnight 22nd/23rd March 2008.

Early February 2008 was a different story- a marginal but very strong northerly with rain, sleet and snow spreading south. I recall it struggled to settle in most areas but it did settle in Norwich that evening. Meanwhile the wind backed north-westerly which temporarily brought snow showers in off the Irish Sea with accumulations away from the extreme coastal fringe.

Regarding the "likely rain from a warm pool to the west" issue I'm thinking of overnight 27th/28th January 2004 and overnight 22nd/23rd March 2008. In both cases the GFS accurately predicted that temperatures would be on the wrong side of marginal in the west, resulting in rain, but the BBC and Met Office were misled by the UKMO model underdoing the effects of the warmer pool of air and predicted snow even in the west.

Regarding snow showers following behind I was thinking more that this cyclonic NW'ly looks like a colder version of what hit north-west England on 3 February 2003 and 25 December 2004. The former brought numerous snow showers to Lancaster although the snow did not settle for long, while the latter brought Lancaster a white Christmas, with an inch of lying snow by late afternoon. Unfortunately on that occasion I wasn't there!

[Cric_lancster]

I remember the 2004 event very well, we received a couple of cm, lasted the whole day! truly memorable. If this pattern does establish itself for late this week/early next week, I'd be more than pleased IMBY if it was as good as Christmas '04.

18z GFS does look a bit unlikely IMO. ECM has promise for the North.

Either way it's nice to see these charts within a week, rather than clutching at the cold mirages of deep FI.

Edited December 15, 2009 by Cric_lancster

[damianslaw]

I can't work it out for Cumbria (on top of trying to work out whether I'm north-west, north-east or Pennines), but I think I'd be due a fair dumping wouldn't I...being right next to the Pennine's western flanks and 600ft up?

As I stated yesterday much of Cumbria away from the west and south coasts doesn't fit that nicely into the NW England thread the further north and east you go where the climate is much more Northern Pennine in character which is associated with the NE England. Your neck of the woods straddles the boundary and with few members in this part of the country I feel that our 'voice' is not really being heard - we are in a unique locality that has characteristics all of its own.

However, I am sticking to the NW England thread but very much will continue to talk about Cumbria as opposed to the rest of the NW - even the BBC NW News which covers the south lakes, doesn't feature us in their forecasts it seems..

Anyhow as for East Cumbria - very good chance of some snow showers penetrating through from the east overnight on Thursday I imagine, I wouldn't be too surprised if you wake up to some snow cover. Thereafter Cumbria as a whole away from the coast looks in with a good chance of some general widespread snow courtesy of the trough from the north on Saturday. We have altitude on our side and the hills naturally will pep up the precipitation, the Lake District hills particularly the eastern fells are likely to get a pasting.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

As I stated yesterday much of Cumbria away from the west and south coasts doesn't fit that nicely into the NW England thread the further north and east you go where the climate is much more Northern Pennine in character which is associated with the NE England. Your neck of the woods straddles the boundary and with few members in this part of the country I feel that our 'voice' is not really being heard - we are in a unique locality that has characteristics all of its own.

However, I am sticking to the NW England thread but very much will continue to talk about Cumbria as opposed to the rest of the NW - even the BBC NW News which covers the south lakes, doesn't feature us in their forecasts it seems..

Anyhow as for East Cumbria - very good chance of some snow showers penetrating through from the east overnight on Thursday I imagine, I wouldn't be too surprised if you wake up to some snow cover. Thereafter Cumbria as a whole away from the coast looks in with a good chance of some general widespread snow courtesy of the trough from the north on Saturday. We have altitude on our side and the hills naturally will pep up the precipitation, the Lake District hills particularly the eastern fells are likely to get a pasting.

It's good to know there's someone out there who understands! The Eden Valley in particular is a funny little enclave, because even when people think about Cumbria specifically, they focus on the Lakes. Of course, as the BBC goes, I'm in the north-east.

We do normally get the tail-end of east-coast showers, so I'm quite hopeful over the next few days. The weekend is sounding good too, sandwiched between the Pennines and the Lakes.

Edited December 15, 2009 by Osbourne One-Nil

[Interitus]

Not improbable ala late December 2000, it got down to -9C at Manchester Airport, my back garden -14C

Also late December 1995 with virtually no snowcover -12C at Manchester Airport.

Its within the realms of possibilty.

I was 9 miles west of the Airport and there was a complete snow cover - though only around an inch it remained virtually unmelted during a week of freezing temperatures, with a lows of -10 and -13C. I thought the latter was an error till I heard Manchester's temp. The Ship Canal was frozen across with creaking ice floes by the end of the week in a strengthening easterly wind which was expected bring potential blizzard conditions but brought absolutely nowt!! I can only imagine the ramping would've been off the scale if this board was around at the time.

2000 was much snowier and I recorded a -11 min, -5 max

However, whilst it is a possibility I don't think it will get anywhere near that.

Edited December 16, 2009 by Interitus

[SP1986]

The lowest on record here is -10C and that was by some stretch in 1982.

Since and before then temperature rarely fall below -5C

It will be interesting to see how low it goes.

[wysiwyg]

However, I am sticking to the NW England thread but very much will continue to talk about Cumbria as opposed to the rest of the NW - even the BBC NW News which covers the south lakes, doesn't feature us in their forecasts it seems..

Will be cool to hear what's going on a little further north in Cumbria. The south Lake District is only an hour or so away by car for me and after the snow has fallen I may well be tempted to have a drive up and get my fix of the scenery in its winter coat so to speak

Edited December 16, 2009 by wysiwyg

[Interitus]

I expect sleet or rain from Saturday's event in western parts of this region I'm afraid. I've seen it happen many times before in that kind of setup- snow to the east of the Pennines & parts of east Lancashire/Cumbria, but rain near the west coast due to the warmer pool of air out west. Still, see my post above re. snow from Sunday through Tuesday!

This was always on the cards. Too many people just look at streamlines and isobars aligned north/south without taking into account the actual trajectories and airmass evolution involved.

[cheshire snow]

Well the 00z continues were the 18z left of quite unbelievable

According to the NW Snow risk charts anywere is in the NW is at risk

From Snow from Thurs right through to Tues

Will it happen to be honest i dont have a clue on the other hand the charts

Are just amazing to look at

C.S

[swainclubber]

Well the 00z continues were the 18z left of quite unbelievable

According to the NW Snow risk charts anywere is in the NW is at risk

From Snow from Thurs right through to Tues

Will it happen to be honest i dont have a clue on the other hand the charts

Are just amazing to look at

C.S

aye not bad, keeps it cold. but slightly less precip at weekend onwards?Again the dew points due to turn negative at midnight tonight

Edited December 16, 2009 by swainclubber

[Snow free zone]

Still looks ok for us this morning. Some slightly warmer air now being added to the mix on Saturday so for us in the West it may not all be cut & dried. After Sat though the NW winds really kick in and it seems as though we will all get a good shot at some hefty snow showers, right through till Tuesday. Trend for colder air to hang around till after Christmas still there too.

[swainclubber]

what are peoples thoughts on the latest model run?seems to be less precip about tomorrow again!

[dodge]

Looking forward to charting the next few days. Not expecting too much from the Easterly, the Pennines sucks up most of that before it makes it over the west side. Still you never now. The Northerly/NWstly might give our best shot. Wonder what our overnight lowest temps will be?

[Solar Cycles]

what are peoples thoughts on the latest model run?seems to be less precip about tomorrow again!

I'd forget about tomorrow, Sat, Sun, and Monday, should see all of us at some point seeing a bit of the white stuff! Amounts are up in the air at the moment, but away from coastal regions, I would guess 3-5cm are possible!

[Snow free zone]

I'd forget about tomorrow, Sat, Sun, and Monday, should see all of us at some point seeing a bit of the white stuff! Amounts are up in the air at the moment, but away from coastal regions, I would guess 3-5cm are possible!

I agree. There has now been a fair amount of consistency over the change to NW winds, and the showers forecast in off the Irish Sea from Sat night onwards. I'd imagine there's even a possibility coastal areas will get a covering if this remains to be the case. Does have the look of Christmas 2004 about it after Saturday, and we ended up with around 1.5/2 inches that day, so all to play for still IMO.

[SP1986]

In many of the precipitation events, especially the ones with a NW wind bias, it looks like judging by the latest run my coastal location will be the wrong side of marginal for many of them with temperatures between 3-4C, although the chance does increase during the night when the the temperatures drops to approx. 1C

It will change though so at this stage it means nothing.

First chance for snow, Thursday night?

As for lowest temperatures, I think for most lowest temperature will be in the northerly, although here it's looking like tomorrow night will deliver the coldest temperatures, needs more runs though.

Tonight could get down to -1C here I suppose!

[trickydicky]

What are we expecting thursday night? I was assuming we would have to wait til the weekend?

[Osbourne One-Nil]

The NW Extra precip charts are suggesting pretty regular snow for me, albeit often light. The freezing level looks below me too, so I'm actually optimistic. The trouble is, there are so many poor unfortunate souls who live in the south-east and get excited about 3 grains of sleet, that we get a bit overlooked!

[swainclubber]

The NW Extra precip charts are suggesting pretty regular snow for me, albeit often light. The freezing level looks below me too, so I'm actually optimistic. The trouble is, there are so many poor unfortunate souls who live in the south-east and get excited about 3 grains of sleet, that we get a bit overlooked!

when is this for?

[SP1986]

Absolutely, I reall do hope the southeast get buried though so they know what it's like.

The only real memory I have of being 'buried' was in 1995 but thats it - and apparently one of the worst snowfalls ever seen here, surpassing 1962-1963

[Weather-history]

The random elements are polar lows and troughs that can develop in the Irish Sea. Feb 16th 2000 is an example of a trough that gave a snow cover across southern parts of the region but the best one was the polar low that developed on the 9th December 1981 and gave 16cm of snow at Manchester Airport

Edited December 16, 2009 by Mr_Data

[SP1986]

Ah yes the good old polar low. Of recent these have been short lived events here, and largely marginal too - the last one I recall was 2001 - but it was badly organised and was pretty much dying by the time it got here.

There was a Polar low in 95-96 wasn't there, this maybe the burying I alluded to in my above post.