Model Output General Discussion

[Mark Bayley]

ECM not bad at T144 with much of the UK under colder air and the with the low not to far away...

T144

T168

Edit: That T168 chart for upper temps is not updated yet, wasn't reading properly

Just ignor that chart down there, full editor never seems to work for me

Edited December 15, 2009 by mark bayley

[bluearmy]

ECM 12Z margin of error in the south looking very dicey compared to yesterday's 12z T168 which wasnt so certain either. at least as its got 24 hours closer, it hasnt deteriorated too much though. really exciting times for watching the models continues. lets hope the weather responds!!! liking the updated FAXES

[snowmadchrisuk]

Ecm keeps the 850's close to -10 out until +120 and then drops to -5 at +144 Not to bad though . Any breakdown will be well into next week.

[swfc]

would ecm at 144 hrs be giving snow,what temps we looking at

[cyclonic happiness]

The Atalntic is really struggling to get back control at 168 ECM, If this cold spell lasts till the new year I will be most happytastical!

[Snowly does it]

ECM 168 - northern edge of that LP system getting a splattering of snow methinks.

[snowmadchrisuk]

ECM not bad at T144 with much of the UK under colder air and the with the low not to far away...

T144

T168

The +168 850's hasn't updated yet , it is yesterdays .

[Polar Gael]

ECM at +144 looks potent - to put it mildly - for us in Scotland. Suspect the rest of the UK is going to do pretty well out of this as well...

Also progging the blocking reasserting itself to the north and trying to link up the Greenie High with its chum across in the Barents Sea. Perhaps one of the experienced forecasters could confirm, but to my eyes this looks good for us keeping the cold a bit longer.

Edited December 15, 2009 by Polar Gael

[bluearmy]

thicknesses T144 - T168 in the south vary between 529 and 540. probably looking at rain by T168 but too far out to worry about. too much going on before then.

Edited December 15, 2009 by bluearmy

[East Herts Snow]

Edit: That T168 chart for upper temps is not updated yet, wasn't reading properly

Its saying that the chart has updated on the website, but that is definately the 0hr run chart still though!

[Mark Bayley]

the ecm T850's are from yesterdays run !!!!!

The T168 chart is but the others are not, wasn't reading properly !!

[January Snowstorm]

ECM looks a peach of a run to me, marginal for the South but HUGE potential

[coffee23]

The Atalntic is really struggling to get back control at 168 ECM, If this cold spell lasts till the new year I will be most happytastical!

Ditto

[Snowaddict]

ECM looks a peach of a run to me, marginal for the South but HUGE potential

Also, Ireland would be on the ''colder'' side of that low JS by T+168..

VERY interesting patterns to say the least!

[January Snowstorm]

Also, Ireland would be on the ''colder'' side of that low JS by T+168..

VERY interesting patterns to say the least!

And dont we deserve it after "henrygate" haha

[phil nw.]

ECM 168 - northern edge of that LP system getting a splattering of snow methinks.

Quite possible 528 dam around the centre of england there.

[casparjack]

On the ECM T+168, the Scandi high is upto over 1050 Hpa, it really seems to be giving the signal that others have picked up on of a reinforcement from the North, the block doesn't seem to want to give way.

Edited December 15, 2009 by casparjack

[cooling climate]

The ECM at t168 is very different to the GFS so I think it is irrelevant as to whether it is bitterly

cold and snowy or not.

[bluearmy]

no sign of the ecm wanting to punch through the less milder air before xmas (again)

[damianslaw]

The longer term prospects being shown not least by ECM today as we head into christmas period proper are beginning to show what I feel will happen and is that the cold block to the north is not going to quickly give up the fight, the teleconnections do not support this we are looking at a negative NAO and AO for the foreseeable future, yes some sort of an attack from the atlantic looks likely earlier next week - still all a long way off, but the synoptics speak 'undercutting' to me with renewed attack of the cold from the north.

Many long term forecast were predicting cold weather to not really set in until christmas courtesy of heighs to the north. Look at the jet it is far to the south next week.

Edited December 15, 2009 by damianslaw

[swfc]

At 240 on ecm what would the generall weather be given the low staying to the south west.

[SMU]

It's inevitable we are going to see a push in of the Atlantic next week but how far North any mild air gets is very much open to question. Frontal snow will always come with winners and losers, the ECM is a belter.

yep - I suspect that the 168 chart would have the snow/sleet/rain line across the southern midlands..-- but as we know if the signal is keeping the cold air further south then possible the evolution runs further south......

very very exciting times ahead & despite always giving you grief its good to have you aboard!

S

[Mark Bayley]

OK, here's the updated ECM chart (i hope!)

Not to bad for much of the UK, especially the Midlands northwards but the far south doesn't look to bad to my eyes!!

Edited December 15, 2009 by mark bayley

[Thundery wintry showers]

The ECMWF 12Z would give rise to a white Christmas for many areas, and across Scotland, Ireland, north-west England and the Midlands it would be dry, sunny and cold. Showers would come onto the east coast of England and they would be wintry, albeit possibly of a wintry mix rather than snow as the 850s would be quite marginal judging by the output. Possible rain/sleet/snow pushing into the south late in the day.

A very interesting ECM output indeed, showing that the exact date for the breakdown is uncertain. I think it could fall on any day between 22 December and the end of the month (I don't buy UKMO's breakdown on 21 December) with around Christmas being the most likely, as I expect the models to delay it as we get nearer the time.

To me, the ECM 12Z looks similar to the GFS 12Z but with the northerly's initial angle of attack being from the NW straightaway and with the southerly tracking lows a little further north. The Greenland High is looking much stronger on this run- that large "Greeny" ridge to the NW is ever-present during the run and those often prove very hard to shift. With low pressure often dominant there would probably be a good deal of snowfall for many.

[cyclonic happiness]

It's inevitable we are going to see a push in of the Atlantic next week but how far North any mild air gets is very much open to question. Frontal snow will always come with winners and losers, the ECM is a belter.

I wouldn't say it was "inevitable" just possible, like the fact we could get another massive model flip in the next fews days that keeps us cold, just like the backtrack over the weekend.

As they say "more runs needed".

Edited December 15, 2009 by cyclonic happiness