South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Methuselah]

Here you go...

[Lynxus]

TY, hopefully this one will give us some more luck!

[BristolBlizzard]

Snow Storm New Years Eve

[SouthernSnow]

PLEASE SNOW:(

[Nights King]

Snow Storm New Years Eve

Thats one big carrot!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Well i'm quite happy with what i've had so far.

[fromey]

like i said i dont want to rub it in, and as i said that it eased off but hey snow is snow,

and to answer another question im up by the rugby club

fromey

[WESTERN SNOWS]

it does look very slight now looking at the radar so i guess were not missing anything major here in the west. im just watching the darts on sky sports and lots of the players are still trying to get to alexandra palace coz of the blizzards earlier but its cleared now. wonder if theres anymore to come in the next few days?

[alex12]

No sign of any snow coming by the looks of things

[Karen Ann]

After rain on and of all day it has been snowing here in Broadstone for about an hour now. Just starting to settle on the cars and some of the ground. Shall be interested to see if it continues.

[Ian Fergusson]

Essentially the day has worn-on much as expected, with the eastern bias to snowfall more than evident despite the sub-regional uncertainties; some more still likely even to 00Z across much of Wilts and perhaps some flakes into more western fringes. With as much as a 50NM error margin east-west today to work with from our early modelling (in terms of lying snowfall potential and the developmental areas of concern) it's been a total forecasting mare today from start to finish, but the ice risk was always the core matter of emphasis for the likes of Bristol / Bath / environs, and so it continues into tonight.

The UKMO wide-range snow risk warnings today were reflective of the uncertainty (50 miles is essentially 50% the distance between Almondsbury Interchange and the M4/M25 junction!) and essentially low localised confidence on snow/sleet/rain discrimination within the PPN envelope (as reflected by grounds obs widely in southern England during the day).

Post-hoc, yesterday's convergence-focused snowfall was very well handled by the high-res models (as I posted frames from last eve), so no surprise really there; e.g., 4cm lying snow in the likes of Bradley Stoke, S. Glos; 3cm confirmed at Filton; the resultant impact on roads across much of Bristol was an utter shambles this morning. I skidded off the unlit M32 at 0335 this morning even before it froze-over (fortuitously, I went off down the slip onto the ring-road rather than off permanently into the scenery) and I suspect many smaller, untreated urban and rural roads will be largely or wholly impassable by tomorrow AM as the temps fall away sharply now to -3 and below.

Glazed, partial melt snow will be more than treacherous.... who needs more snow?? (i.e., those of us still having to drive into work!!)

Looking ahead, the varying broadscale Atlantic changes give rather low confidence to the mid-range evolution later this week and so I'm hardly bothering with outlook charts or graphics tomorrow in broadcasts. We have enough issues for the here and now, not least if freezing fog gets chucked into the mix for tomorrow morning, as we expect in some districts.

Edited December 21, 2009 by Ian Fergusson

[Bristawl Si]

No sign of any snow coming by the looks of things

Nope! Just caught News24 weather at 19:58. So near, yet so far. Looks like the band has reached its most western boundary; prob about 20 miles east of Bristol

I've had this recurring nightmare in the last 24 hours. What if this last few days was our winter in the West? - the only cold and snow we'll get all winter.

Doesn't bare thinking about!

Edit: Thanks Ian, for the update.

Edited December 21, 2009 by Bristle boy

[kaz]

just spoken with my son he is stuck in Reading cant get back to Bracknell... train chaos there as well... looks like Reading was a dead hit. I see they have said we might get some snow/sleet early hours of the morning, mmmm cant see it myself.. those showers that were moving in are going so slow that they are dying out very fast over the sea.. Needed a better upper wind to move them along.

kaz x

[Lynxus]

Dogs / jane / textmum

After what must of been my 30 moke in the backgarden tonight.

I can confirm VERY light snowfall.

PLeas get heavy

[Snowman15]

After rain on and of all day it has been snowing here in Broadstone for about an hour now. Just starting to settle on the cars and some of the ground. Shall be interested to see if it continues.

Yep, same in Wimborne, settling on the ground and cars etc now. Not too much more to come looking at the radar so make the most of this :lol:

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Essentially the day has worn-on much as expected, with the eastern bias to snowfall more than evident despite the sub-regional uncertainties; some more still likely even to 00Z across much of Wilts and perhaps some flakes into more western fringes. With as much as a 50NM error margin east-west today to work with from our early modelling (in terms of lying snowfall potential and the developmental areas of concern) it's been a total forecasting mare today from start to finish, but the ice risk was always the core matter of emphasis for the likes of Bristol / Bath / environs, and so it continues into tonight.

The UKMO wide-range snow risk warnings today were reflective of the uncertainty (50 miles is essentially 50% the distance between Almondsbury Interchange and the M4/M25 junction!) and essentially low localised confidence on snow/sleet/rain discrimination within the PPN envelope (as reflected by grounds obs widely in southern England during the day).

Post-hoc, yesterday's convergence-focused snowfall was very well handled by the high-res models (as I posted frames from last eve), so no surprise really there; e.g., 4cm lying snow in the likes of Bradley Stoke, S. Glos; 3cm confirmed at Filton; the resultant impact on roads across much of Bristol was an utter shambles this morning. I skidded off the unlit M32 at 0335 this morning even before it froze-over (fortuitously, I went off down the slip onto the ring-road rather than off permanently into the scenery) and I suspect many smaller, untreated urban and rural roads will be largely or wholly impassable by tomorrow AM as the temps fall away sharply now to -3 and below.

Glazed, partial melt snow will be more than treacherous.... who needs more snow?? (i.e., those of us still having to drive into work!!)

Looking ahead, the varying broadscale Atlantic changes give rather low confidence to the mid-range evolution later this week and so I'm hardly bothering with outlook charts or graphics tomorrow in broadcasts. We have enough issues for the here and now, not least if freezing fog gets chucked into the mix for tomorrow morning, as we expect in some districts.

Hi Ian, glad to hear you are OK after your near miss.

Spotlight presenter, David Braine, was a little more open about the weeks prospects going for a wet Xmas eve and a dry but grey Christmas day with temps nudging 7-8C.

Reasonable? I'd of thought with the current chopping and changing this might be altered?

[Ian Fergusson]

What if this last few days was our winter in the West? - the only cold and snow we'll get all winter.

Doesn't bare thinking about!

.

I doubt it. Perhaps a brief return to near or average temps between Xmas and the 29th, then a signal for colder conditions again. Yes, it's a lifetime away and so take nil for granted (let some tabloids do the bad science for us), but some of the longer (mid-range) progs are interesting, to say the least. The much wider story - - as linked to the current ENSO event - - is more interesting still, as are some of the historical parallels. Check some other threads for discussion.

[SteveB]

Essentially the day has worn-on much as expected, with the eastern bias to snowfall more than evident despite the sub-regional uncertainties; some more still likely even to 00Z across much of Wilts and perhaps some flakes into more western fringes. With as much as a 50NM error margin east-west today to work with from our early modelling (in terms of lying snowfall potential and the developmental areas of concern) it's been a total forecasting mare today from start to finish, but the ice risk was always the core matter of emphasis for the likes of Bristol / Bath / environs, and so it continues into tonight.

The UKMO wide-range snow risk warnings today were reflective of the uncertainty (50 miles is essentially 50% the distance between Almondsbury Interchange and the M4/M25 junction!) and essentially low localised confidence on snow/sleet/rain discrimination within the PPN envelope (as reflected by grounds obs widely in southern England during the day).

Post-hoc, yesterday's convergence-focused snowfall was very well handled by the high-res models (as I posted frames from last eve), so no surprise really there; e.g., 4cm lying snow in the likes of Bradley Stoke, S. Glos; 3cm confirmed at Filton; the resultant impact on roads across much of Bristol was an utter shambles this morning. I skidded off the unlit M32 at 0335 this morning even before it froze-over (fortuitously, I went off down the slip onto the ring-road rather than off permanently into the scenery) and I suspect many smaller, untreated urban and rural roads will be largely or wholly impassable by tomorrow AM as the temps fall away sharply now to -3 and below.

Glazed, partial melt snow will be more than treacherous.... who needs more snow?? (i.e., those of us still having to drive into work!!)

Looking ahead, the varying broadscale Atlantic changes give rather low confidence to the mid-range evolution later this week and so I'm hardly bothering with outlook charts or graphics tomorrow in broadcasts. We have enough issues for the here and now, not least if freezing fog gets chucked into the mix for tomorrow morning, as we expect in some districts.

Hi Ian, thanks for the update. Looks like I am too far west for any snow tonight. At least we got a covering in North Somerset.

Driving to work in Nailsea was a little dicey at times. Not sure if the roads were gritted at all

[textmum]

Lynux, thanks for the heads up, can't see it here, need to focus in on the lampost more!! Whereabouts in Abbeymead are you??

[Lynxus]

Behind morrisons.

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

ian are the showers in the bristol channel likely to make it to land fall if so were abouts?

?

[Nights King]

Hi ian,

The bbc graphics show an area of snow edging west to the bath/ glasto area right up to midnight before being shifted back towards the east however it does look like the showers are still migrating east slowly away from bath and bristol area. Is the ppn currently down south towards coast likely to take a more northerly direction?

[textmum]

None up this way, just off of Lobleys

[Ian Fergusson]

Hi ian,

The bbc graphics show an area of snow edging west to the bath/ glasto area right up to midnight before being shifted back towards the east however it does look like the showers are still migrating east slowly away from bath and bristol area. Is the ppn currently down south towards coast likely to take a more northerly direction?

Hi, yes the last modelling did exactly that - possibly some moderately heavy snow too, but I've yet to check if the latest run / amendments are available to the NAE and high-res output. It never reached Bristol in the last run, but did much of B&NES districts and west Wilts. If I get a moment I will check the latest..... albeit bed beckons shortly ahead of early ice-scraping and subsequent Lewis Hamilton car control emulation (or not) duties tomorrow at 0330.....

[lfcdude]

west wilts? will it reach devizes mate