South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Bristawl Si]

Hi ian,

The bbc graphics show an area of snow edging west to the bath/ glasto area right up to midnight before being shifted back towards the east however it does look like the showers are still migrating east slowly away from bath and bristol area. Is the ppn currently down south towards coast likely to take a more northerly direction?

Just been looking at the raintoday radar and it seems the band is definitely moving away from us towards the east midlands - a close call but not close enough. I must admit it looked at 9 this morning that the track of the precipitation was exactly the track it has actually taken.

Some shower activity off the Mumbles at the mo - any chance of a repeat of last night's Bristol Channel 'streamer'?

[Ian Fergusson]

Hi, yes the last modelling did exactly that - possibly some moderately heavy snow too, but I've yet to check if the latest run / amendments are available to the NAE and high-res output. It never reached Bristol in the last run, but did much of B&NES districts and west Wilts. If I get a moment I will check the latest..... albeit bed beckons shortly ahead of early ice-scraping and subsequent Lewis Hamilton car control emulation (or not) duties tomorrow at 0330.....

OK - briefly - here's the latest high-res modelling of precip forecast / discrimination at 00Z, reflective of previous solutions, giving snowfall returning slightly west into Bath and environs / Wilts etc.... and for those who pondered if the UKMO snow warning to 0600Z for this potential in Bath / Bristol was spurious, herein lies the basis of the decision down in Exeter. Pragmatic, I'd say.

The same high-res PPN modelling fared very well last night, spatially and temporally, so I'll awake tomorrow with interest to see how it coped with this (arguably far more knife-edge) set-up.

Best

Ian

[Nights King]

Hi, yes the last modelling did exactly that - possibly some moderately heavy snow too, but I've yet to check if the latest run / amendments are available to the NAE and high-res output. It never reached Bristol in the last run, but did much of B&NES districts and west Wilts. If I get a moment I will check the latest..... albeit bed beckons shortly ahead of early ice-scraping and subsequent Lewis Hamilton car control emulation (or not) duties tomorrow at 0330.....

I don't blame you i had my own issue this morning - Last night i parked my car down at edge of main village so i could reach main Road easier and droped my car keys on the way back! This morning i realised and then spent half the day combing half a mile of thick snow trying to find them with little success. Booked a last min days holiday to look for them too. Enjoyed the snow though. Thanks for the information again.

Wed still looks like it could be interesting for the west on high ground again....

Edited December 21, 2009 by mullender83

[BenJamminJ]

PIVOT....!!!......shall I give up now LOL

Oh well, by what Ian hinted at.... bring on THE SNOW STORM OF THE CENTURY!

[slinky1989]

Snowing lightly again here in swindon after a half hour break. Got a nice thin icing sugar coating over everything now. I'm just pleased we got at least something out of this cold spell.

I can't remember ever seeing snow here in december

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Oh well, by what Ian hinted at.... bring on THE SNOW STORM OF THE CENTURY!

I'm not entirely sure he was hinting at that

If the skies could clear now with slight snow cover temps could drop pretty low by morning. It's already started to melt.

[jethro]

It's stopped snowing here, a nice top up on what we had last night which stayed all day - no noticeable melt. It's now really quite foggy, temps just above freezing, hoping if we get any more tonight, it falls as snow and not rain.

[David-kig]

snowing here in wincanton got a slight covering from it getting there

[noggin]

OK - briefly -

Best

Ian

Hi, Ian.....how lovely to have such a knowledgeable person on board! :lol:

I am delighted that just about all of my 1 1/2 inches of snow remains. It is still in the trees too and even on the telephone wires. It is lasting really well and for December it's fabulous! However, what a nightmare it'll be tomorrow if it all freezes. :o

I hope everybody is really enjoying their snow and that those who haven't had any yet will get loads before long. :lol:

It's stopped snowing here, a nice top up on what we had last night which stayed all day - no noticeable melt. It's now really quite foggy, temps just above freezing, hoping if we get any more tonight, it falls as snow and not rain.

Hi Dawn...glad you've got some.

[David-kig]

thanks ian might be a nice covering in wincanton tonight then

[Nights King]

I think his charts are out on this one to be honest. It is still drifting east.

[theprophecyman]

looks like sailsbury is getting some decent snow - as per raintoday.co.uk (20:45)

[alex12]

Clear out there. No snow, No sleet not even any rain.

[theprophecyman]

I think his charts are out on this one to be honest. It is still drifting east.

Will set my alarm for midnight and see what's occurring

Edited December 21, 2009 by theprophecyman

[Snowman15]

bad news - the final bit of precip for here is rain with some big flakes mixed in so just melted he covering we did have! - ahwell only December!

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

any idea about those showers to the west out in the bristol channel will anything comwe of these?

[Bristawl Si]

any idea about those showers to the west out in the bristol channel will anything comwe of these?

I've been keeping an eye on these as well, but painfully slow moving and not really 'organised' like last night. I'd be v.surprised if they came to anything, but you never know.

Edited December 21, 2009 by Bristle boy

[snowdog]

it rained/snowed/sleeted here on and off for an hour. Typical Poole disappointment. Thank goodness we've still got those prescription drugs.

it rained/snowed/sleeted here on and off for an hour. Typical Poole disappointment. Thank goodness we've still got those prescription pills.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Temps dropping away nicely now... going to be hell on the road tomorrow morning! -1.4C currently (and it still cloudy, whats it going to do when the cloud clears around midnight?!)

Still, only one more day of work and then Christmas break... albeit driving to West Sussex on Thursday... fun day weatherwise?

[Bristawl Si]

Organised band of showers look like they're heading for the North Devon coast, according to raintoday radar. Prob an hour away if they don't fizzle out.

[WESTERN SNOWS]

so so slow though will be gone midnight by the time they get here and even then they will prob die out

[LostInABlizzard]

Any idea when/how this pivot is going to happen in order for the outcome that was shown in Ian's post earlier? Don't see any evidence of change yet or where that precipitation is going to come from do you?

[Bristawl Si]

Any idea when/how this pivot is going to happen in order for the outcome that was shown in Ian's post earlier? Don't see any evidence of change yet or where that precipitation is going to come from do you?

Can't see it happening myself. The odd shower possible into N.Devon coast from the channel.

Reading was featured on the BBC news just now from today, v.heavy snow during this afternoon. Well, latest radar pics shows they are about to be hit again by heavy snow. Lucky them!

[WESTERN SNOWS]

Can't see it happening myself. The odd shower possible into N.Devon coast from the channel.

Reading was featured on the BBC news just now from today, v.heavy snow during this afternoon. Well, latest radar pics shows they are about to be hit again by heavy snow. Lucky them!

yes i see that also another pulse heading straight for them lucky so in sos lo

[butler_son]

Just appears to have stopped snowing here in Verwood, was pretty heavy as I came back from the Ski Centre (oh the irony), was pretty slushy on the road and settling on cars. Was a pleasant surprise, wasn't expecting to even see snow today!