South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[dogs32]

BBC showing snow for the north of the West Country on tuesday

Bristol northwards....

must be getting more confident slowly now.

The latest charts are looking realy good.

[Wilxy]

BBC showing snow for the north of the West Country on tuesday

I saw that aswel but looked like it was turning to rain behind it i think instead of rain turning to snow it will be snow turning to rain which would be bad if it accumilates. sorry spelling bad today.

if the snow was a bit further south id be v happy.

[dogs32]

I saw that aswel but looked like it was turning to rain behind it i think instead of rain turning to snow it will be snow turning to rain which would be bad if it accumilates. sorry spelling bad today.

if the snow was a bit further south id be v happy.

from the Welsh thread

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[twister2005]

look at that for thursday night http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

and this for wed night http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[dogs32]

look at that for thursday night http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

and this for wed night http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

:lol:

I think we better calm down :lol:

get the wine out Twister..lol

edit ..not sure about Wed...Am I missing something

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[twister2005]

more of a cider drinker

[Snowfan50]

Hows its going to snow though with those temps?

[Jayfromcardiff]

Hows its going to snow though with those temps?

BBC always overcook temps. also temps will drop during heavy ppn.

[dogs32]

Hows its going to snow though with those temps?

I think we have a strong cold wind going to undercut the warm air?

Kold going for M4 northwards for snow..

I think he as posted on the Midlands thread.

we do seem to be in ONE of the Prime position's I think

Midlands/S.Midlands.Wales/S.Wales....What I can make out these areas are in for a pasting...Possabilty with large accumulations..

Dont take my word for it though

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[Snowfan50]

I know that but bbc forecasted snow for north devon a couple times during the recent cold spell and all we got was sleet and rain so i cant really trust them.

[Jayfromcardiff]

I know that but bbc forecasted snow for north devon a couple times during the recent cold spell and all we got was sleet and rain so i cant really trust them.

Best thing to do is look at the radar or look out your window lol, thats what i do normally.

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

definatly a party going on the model output discussion i peered in for a few mins there all talking about extreme cold and large amounts of snow! :yahoo:

[BenJamminJ]

God, I can't cope, I've been watching the model thread for a few days now..... I don't understand a word they are saying but the general consensus is that its looking increasingly good for us

I'm TRYING not to get excited, but its not working!!!

[dogs32]

definatly a party going on the model output discussion i peered in for a few mins there all talking about extreme cold and large amounts of snow! :yahoo:

:lol: ...Looking good for a mega snow event that we havent seen for a few decades...

Again this is all assumption and snippets of info Im picking up..

Remember guys and girls what Ian said,

we need to be cautious as its still HRS away...

Chop and change it could do.

Lets hope this is one hell of a party for the New year,If not w e have the rest of the Winter

But it is looking realy good now.

Benjammin have some wine,It work's calm's the nerves..lol

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[Wilxy]

I just hope its not one of those overhyped events then when it comes its huge downgrade at the doorstep iv had many of these in the past but also some good onces.

[Jayfromcardiff]

I just hope its not one of those overhyped events then when it comes its huge downgrade at the doorstep iv had many of these in the past but also some good onces.

Lol, same as what i'm thinking.

[David-kig]

south west rain again just like usual!!!!!!

[dogs32]

I think the snow event is more South than first anticipated..

I might be wrong but thats how it seems to me

[David-kig]

I think the snow event is more South than first anticipated..

I might be wrong but thats how it seems to me

is the front going to go south all west country like somerset etc gunna get rain all the time

[dogs32]

is the front going to go south all west country like somerset etc gunna get rain all the time

as far as I know David its moving up from the S/W And leveling out across the Midland's area before then shifteing off East..

but the snow threat with the heavier PPN is further South I think???

Only my estimate....take lightly

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[rbw]

Still doesn't look good for me in Gloucester on Tuesday according to the BBC site - white all round and a finger blue running up to Gloucester - bit like what happened last Wednesday!

Thursday night looks better but does the back edge turn to rain?

Richard

[dogs32]

Sky news have the snow as far South as the M4.

But the heaviest around Wales and the Midlands...aka Joe Wheeler

[Tommyyy]

I think we need a part 9 to this thread! :L

The main thing to point out is never give up, the SW |HARDLY EVER| never gets definate snow its always marginal (as this will be for us) but you know.. sometimes it pays off yet sometimes not ):

We just have to keep going with it till the event comes and then you get the joys of lampost watching and reporting on here!

[Tommyyy]

Sky news have the snow as far South as the M4.

But the heaviest around Wales and the Midlands...aka Joe Wheeler

off topic

You know your 72oz challenge, is that in the channels section with all the storm chasing videos, because i saw one of the challenges in there and it could have been you! I can't remeber who it was..

EDIT: 2010.. are you hopefully thinking? i'm rather confused and feeling rather stupid :L i blame that alcohol

Edited December 27, 2009 by Tommypoo

[Ian Fergusson]

Still doesn't look good for me in Gloucester on Tuesday according to the BBC site - white all round and a finger blue running up to Gloucester - bit like what happened last Wednesday!

Thursday night looks better but does the back edge turn to rain?

Richard

Hmmm...... That's not my take on things.

And I ran against the UKMO modelling to stick my neck out (on BBC Glos) for disruptive snow over the Cotswolds that evening you mention (and it fell). On this occasion I'm doing quite the opposite and following the UKMO higher-res modelling, not least because it proved 100% spot-on for us in February and again exactly this time last weekend, when it gave an excellent sub-regional (indeed, sub county-level) forecast of the convergence-focused snow that fell into Bristol and environs by Monday AM (refer to previous postings at the time, with the UKMO short-range graphical mapping).

This event could see some truly problematic snowfall into parts of Glos, especially further north (as I've stressed constantly on this thread). Yes, it's a knife-edge one for sure (welcome, folks in this region, to living next to the Atlantic), but if it manifests as we are worried it could, then misery on roads and elsewhere will surely beckon again.

I'm into work at 0400hrs each day this week ahead and as far as I'm concerned, I (and rest of my BBC colleagues) are taking a steer not from GFS or the like, but primarily from the very latest NAE product (attached and this directly drives what you see as BBC TV graphics: snowfall accumulations 00Z to 12Z Tues; dynamic cm in black; convective in red; shaded areas potential for 15-20cm and accompanied, as earlier stressed, by blizzard likelihood). It gives a reasonable enough hint of what could brew from this first event, let alone whatever follows into the latter part of the week. The WBFL within the frontal boundary on Tues will be circa 200-400m and thus it's clearly threatening wintry PPN at short areal / temporal transition / notice as it moves north.

We expect the frontal boundary to slip back slowly south into Wed/Thurs but with a real risk of stalling and becoming effectively stationary. Severe weather is surely thus likely for some unfortunate districts and despite the yahoo vibes expressed by some on this and other threads, it will prove anything but funny or entertaining for those badly affected. I appreciate it's exciting times, but please - we need to retain a sense of perspective about how this sort of severe weather potential can cause loss of life (not least on our roads), let alone loss of livelihood, domestic comfort (especially for the elderly and vulnerable) and other unwelcome impact.