South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[noggin]

Sky news have the snow as far South as the M4.

........and I am about 1 mile south of the M4. Talk about marginal. :lol:

As always, I am expecting nothing. That way, I can contain my disappointment a little, when nothing happens.

If, on the other hand, it does snow here, then I will be as deliriously happy as everybody else!

It's a right old roller-coaster of a ride, innit!

[Bolton67]

I appreciate it's exciting times, but please - we need to retain a sense of perspective about how this sort of severe weather potential can cause loss of life (not least on our roads), let alone loss of livelihood, domestic comfort (especially for the elderly and vulnerable) and other unwelcome impact.

Very well said.

As i drive for a living, these conditions become a nightmare.

[noggin]

Hmmm......

Very interesting, Ian. Thank you.

I don't think I'll bother expecting anything here in Downend, then! If, by some remote chance, we get something, then I'll be happy, but if not........well, I suppose that's just tough!

[dogs32]

off topic

You know your 72oz challenge, is that in the channels section with all the storm chasing videos, because i saw one of the challenges in there and it could have been you! I can't remeber who it was..

EDIT: 2010.. are you hopefully thinking? i'm rather confused and feeling rather stupid :L i blame that alcohol

Hi mate,

Yes Im on there at one point.

Not sure I wont to do it again though,I probably will though...

43oZ will make your jaw sore..lol

Lovely steak though,the best I have ever tasted.

If I do it again it will be filmed live on the net.

Good post Ian,

Even though we wont blizzard's we do tend to forget about the unfortunate, who's life can be made hell in times like these.

Or like you say death!!!

If it stall's this could be quite nasty like you say.

Im sure that's what caused the massive flooding back in 07 with a front that refused to budge!

Im sure nearer the 24hr period we will know or have a fairly accurate idea how this is going to go.

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[mrchoosy]

As an irregular poster, id like to say thanks to Ian F for his informative insight from a professional.

Im sure the other regional sub forums would love someone like him on their boards.

Interesting times ahead for sure, the devil in the detail will be last minute for sure.

[Wilxy]

Part 9 me thinks.

Edit: like your review ian maybe still a chance of a flake or 2 here then but probs not.

Part 9 me thinks.

Edit: like your review ian maybe still a chance of a flake or 2 here then but probs not.

[03jtrickey]

Hmmm...... That's not my take on things.

Thanks again, Ian! I've just come back and I'm stunned at the output this evening (aside from the GFS). Wonderful to have access to those snow depth charts.

One question I would like to ask is - how much credence do you at the BBC, and the MetOffice give to the GFS? Are many models aside from the UKMO, ECM and UM often consulted?

[BristolBlizzard]

Thanks again, Ian! I've just come back and I'm stunned at the output this evening (aside from the GFS). Wonderful to have access to those snow depth charts.

One question I would like to ask is - how much credence do you at the BBC, and the MetOffice give to the GFS? Are many models aside from the UKMO, ECM and UM often consulted?

sorry off topic , just starting on more 4 ... snowstorm about feb 2009.

[dogs32]

sorry off topic , just starting on more 4 ... snowstorm about feb 2009.

Is that the repeat one shown earlier this year?

Anyway just in case Im getting video and camera ready as this just might turn out to be not the normal snow fall.

If it stall's!!!!

Might not see a event like this for yrs to come again.

who know's

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[Nights King]

On the bbc graphics they have the snow line moving down over bristol/bath briefly and then moving back north. Doesnt look like somerset or north somerset is going to see much of this except for rain. Glouc on the other hand looks like it could get quite abit.

looks like i'll need the dingy and not the snow plough. Lets hope it gets moved slightly south yet on next update to cover more of the west country.

[BristolBlizzard]

Is that the repeat one shown earlier this year?

Anyway just in case Im getting video and camera ready as this just might turn out to be not the normal snow fall.

If it stall's!!!!

Might not see a event like this for yrs to come again.

who know's

yes thats the one yes if it stalls would be large amounts of snow .

[dogs32]

yes thats the one yes if it stalls would be large amounts of snow .

Yea...I think Ian made me hit ground realy...

Realising that this could be quite nasty for some(not ramping)

Just a good possabilty that this just might happen..

We have seen what a rain front can do in 2007 when it stalled,what about heavy PPN snow stalling

[Wilxy]

yes thats the one yes if it stalls would be large amounts of snow .

i hope so i think if it stalls it would soon turn to snow if it already was rain but heres hoping. Thanks cityatnight2001 im watching it now this will get me in the mood.

[BristolBlizzard]

i hope so i think if it stalls it would soon turn to snow if it already was rain but heres hoping. Thanks cityatnight2001 im watching it now this will get me in the mood.

yw weathercoxy .

[Ian Fergusson]

Thanks again, Ian! I've just come back and I'm stunned at the output this evening (aside from the GFS). Wonderful to have access to those snow depth charts.

One question I would like to ask is - how much credence do you at the BBC, and the MetOffice give to the GFS? Are many models aside from the UKMO, ECM and UM often consulted?

Brief answer (sorry - off to bed and up at 0300!). All the models are consulted at UKMO and all variances discussed in our briefings from the UKMO Chief Forecaster. If the GFS seems more credible, it will be given due prominence. Ditto any other models - as you would expect from a scientific appproach.

However, GFS has a frequently overly-cold / snowy bias, as those of us in my business are frequently reminded by the expert forecasters at UKMO.

Cheers

Ian

[caz100]

http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365#p/a/u/0/HWp1AKCvzeM

found this in another weather room...do you think we will get any snow???

[03jtrickey]

Brief answer (sorry - off to bed and up at 0300!). All the models are consulted at UKMO and all variances discussed in our briefings from the UKMO Chief Forecaster. If the GFS seems more credible, it will be given due prominence. Ditto any other models - as you would expect from a scientific appproach.

However, GFS has a frequently overly-cold / snowy bias, as those of us in my business are frequently reminded by the expert forecasters at UKMO.

Cheers

Ian

Thanks :lol: Good luck with the forecasts over the next few days!

[Nights King]

http://www.youtube.c...u/0/HWp1AKCvzeM

found this in another weather room...do you think we will get any snow???

I doubt it. End of week is along way off at the moment so it could be rain/snow or it may not even hit us... but then it might

[dogs32]

someone predicting 40cm for some areas,That would be nasty...

Probably Wales in parts

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[rich101]

we missed it last couple of times, so its got to be our turn for a bit. 40 cm in chelt would be nice!

[dogs32]

we missed it last couple of times, so its got to be our turn for a bit. 40 cm in chelt would be nice!

we can only hope rich

snow due Tuesday early morning??

latest Rob Macellwe(spelling) as the snow more widespread

courtesy of WM Thread

If Im correct this front will then move South before slipping away..OR STALL

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[rich101]

reading back over the posts and to 2007 like you said, does make you realise that as exciting it is sitting at home anticipating the snow comming, nature can and will throw up freak storms, of which people have to work in. So I hope for snow, and lots of it, but without threatening lives, but enough to keep me from working wed and friday, and to prevent the lazy man living accross the street from me parking his car adjacent to my drive; or my car will inevitably end up as part of his.

[dogs32]

reading back over the posts and to 2007 like you said, does make you realise that as exciting it is sitting at home anticipating the snow comming, nature can and will throw up freak storms, of which people have to work in. So I hope for snow, and lots of it, but without threatening lives, but enough to keep me from working wed and friday, and to prevent the lazy man living accross the street from me parking his car adjacent to my drive; or my car will inevitably end up as part of his.

he wont be driving to Bristol in Blizzard condition's

weatheronline the front will straddle across the m4 corridor

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[rbw]

we can only hope rich

snow due Tuesday early morning??

latest Rob Macellwe(spelling) as the snow more widespread

courtesy of WM Thread

If Im correct this front will then move South before slipping away..OR STALL

Must admit, I still think it will be hill snow only round us i'm afraid, unless the low shifts a little to the south. Lets hope I'm wrong!

R

[rich101]

think the forecast tomorrow will be a v.good indication to tues/wed,