South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Mr Plough]

Thanks for that Ian, its great to have your input on this forum.

Fingers crossed snow lovers

[BARRY]

Will Hand's updated forecast is amazing. Even though his forecast is for Dartmoor, I can see the S/SE getting quite a lot of snow later in the week as well..........Enjoy http://www.lyneside....discussions.htm

Now that sort of forecast gets my vote but realistically it will no doubt be rain here it always is rain

[Steve_De4]

So, Tuesday/Wednesday it not a good day for making a journey from Wiltshire to Telford? Rain in Westbury, and then as soon as I cross the M4 and head towards Stroud, snow. Then, as I follow the M5 up towards Worcester, cars sliding everywhere. And then as I head out onto the hills outside Kidderminster towards Bridgnorth, I'll be trapped in snowdrifts.

Best not go then

Cheers

Steve

[yamkin]

Now that sort of forecast gets my vote but realistically it will no doubt be rain here it always is rain

I believe that lower levels will get snow later in the week. Will Hand believes lower levels will get snow too.

[BristolBlizzard]

It's a very, very tricky one to call correctly for much of our region - especially the northern districts, as you might expect in this set-up. The UKMO's tweaked advisory now caters for some additional overnight output and the inclusion of S Glos / Bristol / B&ANES and N. Somerset seemed wholly prudent.

Heavy rain is clearly the likely outcome for extreme SW peninsula and equally the southern strip of England, but you'll note how the GM handles the progression northwards of 850-1000hPa temps (sharp gradient into the likes of Bristol and environs) and PPN in the attached frame grabs from overnight output; note also the output probs (snowfall) from ECMWF ENS, which shows the hint of higher snowfall PROB (darker blue is obviously higher PROB) from a line at around Bristol northwards (i.e., not dissimilar, I suppose, to the spatial snow/rain discrimination we observed during the second of the Feb 2009 snowfall events here albeit with a different set-up at play).

The central/east Wales focus and probable blizzard scenario there is looking very solid with each run but I'd personally be very surprised is the Cotswolds and Forest of Dean didn't take a whammy from this..... and potentially, a truly noteworthy one. I'm going to take a punt and work on that expectation, broadcast-wise. The raw GM wants to paint 15cm snow into central and east Wales by Thurs, with 5-10cm more widely into SW Midlands and elsewhere, so evidently it could prove a major pain in the neck for transport infrastructure and jo public generally (fun for the sprogs and those not having to get into work, obviously).

Bristol and lower-level environs are so on-the-cusp that at this stage, it's impossible to call either way but suffice to say I'm briefing our news journos to expect more potential misery on our road network locally into Wed / Thurs (and perhaps beyond, if our latest 4-5 day and 6-10 guidance is to be believed.... snow risk is almost omnipresent, but with the expected low confidence bounds).

thanks ian

[Nights King]

Dusting on mendip plateau I hope by the end of wed at least and just maybe if lady luck is on our side blizzards could be possible. Last of the snow and mainly ice now is just melting away this afternoon.

[anvilhead]

hey all.

Thanks Ian as always.

I'm worried about the gfs! - I know its behind the ukmo and ecm short to mid term, but its hard to dismiss the model that I look at the most (the one i have the most links for )

From what I read we dismiss the gfs, and from wednesday at somepoint onwards its game on, giving us a good few days of snow (I'm in cirencester). Temps on gfs just dont cut it though.

here comes the 12z anyway - if it is wrong, then we'll see the change now i suspect.

[dogs32]

Excellent Info Ian,It's well apreciated on this S/W thread.

Well I know it cause's a lot of problem's the snow but we realy havent seen much here since February.

So Blizzard or white out condition's would be welcomed

But like your realistic post quote's it's a hard one to call in some part's if not all.

That's the English Weather for you,it's great unpredictability at times..

Excuse the ramping on here,we are rather excited (some of us)

Guy on the national going for fairly widespread Heavy snow in the West.

Though you could tell he was unsure how far South this would go..

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[Wilxy]

Does anyone think il be to far west to see any snow.

[anvilhead]

Does anyone think il be to far west to see any snow.

I'd say your not ruled out & not ruled in yet Tom. Some forecasts put you in the snow, some leave the whole area out - best not pin too much hope on it, and watch the next charts & forecast

sam

[Wilxy]

I'd say your not ruled out & not ruled in yet Tom. Some forecasts put you in the snow, some leave the whole area out - best not pin too much hope on it, and watch the next charts & forecast

sam

Thanks mate i think its more exciting now im in the warnings either way il see alot of rain or some snow.

[anvilhead]

Thanks mate i think its more exciting now im in the warnings either way il see alot of rain or some snow.

no probs! my take is for big dumpings of snow, we need to welcome borderline situations as we need the warm air to get the clouds piling upwards, so dont loose faith in the biblical potential of the sw! it might just take a few goes

[Wilxy]

no probs! my take is for big dumpings of snow, we need to welcome borderline situations as we need the warm air to get the clouds piling upwards, so dont loose faith in the biblical potential of the sw! it might just take a few goes

I think we may see sleet but whether its snow we will haved to wait and see.

Rain pushing north will turn to snow across central and some southern parts.

Thats better

[aspire27]

next set of model runs on their way out...

I wonder if that warning will change on the UK METO?

Good or Bad......?

Another thing..why are people from Gloucester posting on here? I know its classed SW, but its not really.

[caz100]

hello

do we know if there be any chance, of snow in lower cornwall.........plz lol

[dogs32]

I think we may see sleet but whether its snow we will haved to wait and see.

Rain pushing north will turn to snow across central and some southern parts.

Thats better

Tom how many times in the past can you remember a large dumping from a South Western LP hitting cold air?

I dont know how old you are but here we have had good accumulation's from these setup's.

Also Rain and sleet,but what if it was another snow event=could be some nice snow depth's..

Any chance of this system stalling

[aspire27]

Well the GFS isn't backing down at all, if anything the low is even further north

Thats it then. Umbrellas at the ready!!!

[dogs32]

next set of model runs on their way out...

I wonder if that warning will change on the UK METO?

Good or Bad......?

Another thing..why are people from Gloucester posting on here? I know its classed SW, but its not really.

because if you go to METO..you will see that they put us in the S/W

[aspire27]

hello

do we know if there be any chance, of snow in lower cornwall.........plz lol

No snow.

[Ian Fergusson]

Attached are the very latest modified NAE frames giving a hint of rain/snow discrimination (the Cotswolds signal in initial frame is as expected); BUT note - as I have already stressed - the Midlands / Wales focus for this initial event (more southerly snowfall risk later in the week) so I do urge caution with expecting any widespread snowfall in the Westcountry from this Tues/Wed feature. Also as per my original posting, the transition to snow on the northerly low-level bounds into the likes of Glos will be extrely hard to call until the day, frankly.

Latest NAE run wants to paint up to 20cm now for southern-central Wales and winds making it all the more problematic too. I'm still concerned that the Cotswolds and other parts of northern Glos could see very troublesome conditions. This new NAE also supports the idea of a faster progression overnight Mon/Tues for arrival of the frontal PPN into the extreme SW.

[anvilhead]

bristol & cirencester/cheltenham area about 1.5c at 10am tuesday on the gfs 12z .. gonna be close!

ok scrub that - the 12z gfs brings up mild air to the tune of 8c by wednesday - either forecasters ignore the gfs at thier peril at <3 days, or the plane data really is screwing with the starting conditions of the gfs ... I'm leaning towards the gfs though personaly

Edited December 27, 2009 by anvilhead

[Wilxy]

Weather forecast: South West EnglandDay 1 to 2Day 3 to 5Day 6 to 15Seasonal

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Unsettled and windy at times with spells of rain, sleet and snow. Wintry precipitation is expected to affect mainly northern counties. Precipitation turning more showery on Thursday.

In my pinion thats a upgrade for northern areas of the west country.

[aspire27]

I dont think the Bristol area has ever been forecast for snow on tuesday.

I thought it was wednesday into thursday was our chance as the colder air finally arrived.

bristol & cirencester/cheltenham area about 1.5c at 10am tuesday on the gfs 12z .. gonna be close!

ok scrub that - the 12z gfs brings up mild air to the tune of 8c by wednesday - either forecasters ignore the gfs at thier peril at <3 days, or the plane data really is screwing with the starting conditions of the gfs ... I'm leaning towards the gfs though personaly

Why GFS? Covering your back? lol

The GFS is the only model showing this......Can all the over models (which are very alike) sunddenly back track completely, would be amazing if they did!

And probably put a spanner in model watching completely!

[anvilhead]

I dont think the Bristol area has ever been forecast for snow on tuesday.

I thought it was wednesday into thursday was our chance as the colder air finally arrived.

I supose it depends what you mean by forecast. Lots of us have been looking at temps and precip for the whole of this area for a while, so we're just talking how chances have increased/decreased i supose.

THe latest gfs rules out wednesday for snow completely from what i can see

[twister2005]

it is so confusing think the best bet is to wait and see, not going to really know until it happens, but still got everything crossed and cant help but be a little excited