South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Nights King]

Morning everyone,

I Don't really have time at the moment to check through much because i am back at work today

What are the latest on this upcoming cold spell then? Any good news for us all in west country?

[aspire27]

Morning everyone,

I Don't really have time at the moment to check through much because i am back at work today

What are the latest on this upcoming cold spell then? Any good news for us all in west country?

Well from what I have worked out the models are throwing out varying outputs. I think for North Somerset south there is a chance of flooding next week and further north sleet and snow.

[Snowman15]

Whats happened with this thread!! How is any of the last couple of pages of people talking crap got to do with the cold spell??

Nice Clear day here in East Dorset - not sure whats ment to happen next week in terms of snow. Some sites not even mentioning cold and forecasting temps of 8c-9c most of next week?

[aspire27]

Whats happened with this thread!! How is any of the last couple of pages of people talking crap got to do with the cold spell??

Nice Clear day here in East Dorset - not sure whats ment to happen next week in terms of snow. Some sites not even mentioning cold and forecasting temps of 8c-9c most of next week?

Totally agree, some complete rubbish posted on here the last 24hrs. More about Stella than the weather.

[Nights King]

I find the meto warnings are interesting because they have heavy rain for corn/devon and then snow for gloucester/south wales but with just a few in the middle with no warning at all like somerset/bristol so they really have no idea if it will be snow or rain?

Lets hope they update with extra snow warnings

I shall be back on this evening and have a proper look although it will be cutting it fine with this cold spell because I leave country on the 2nd jan.

[aspire27]

I find the meto warnings are interesting because they have heavy rain for corn/devon and then snow for gloucester/south wales but with just a few in the middle with no warning at all like somerset/bristol so they really have no idea if it will be snow or rain?

Lets hope they update with extra snow warnings

I shall be back on this evening and have a proper look although it will be cutting it fine with this cold spell because I leave country on the 2nd jan.

Looking at the models the GFS is on its own. This model is currently giving us the rain....all the other models are showing the LP further south bringing a easterly and snow for the south...

Hopefully the GFS comes in line with the other models. Problem is lots of people like the GFS and think its consistant.

[Lynxus]

There seems to be a fair bit of talk about the snow being north wales, north midlands etc.

Lets hope over the coming days this changes and moves further south. Unlikely imo. but worth keeping the fingers crossed.

Tomorrow will be interesting as the meto should have weather warnings out for fri by then.

Just gotta wait n see

I realllly want to get the BBQ out on a very snowy day. Will this year be the year? ( or next year if you want to be .. well yano )

Edited December 27, 2009 by Lynxus

[Wilxy]

Omg metoffice took of heavy rain warnings for devon and cornwall now you can see how uncertain they are.

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!! WOOOO BRISTOL HAS WARNING AT LAST MAYBE A CHANCE YET.

[noggin]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_forecast_warnings.html?day=3

Yep, possibly heavy snow now for.....

BANES

Somerset

N Somerset

Bristol

S Gloucs

Gloucs

...an improvement from the other day.

Forecast was updated just a short time ago! It's getting better, innit! :lol:

[Wilxy]

I call that big improvement here maybe a chance afterall just hope the snow warnings go further south

[03jtrickey]

Yes looking good - and Ian's latest update on the model thread is reassuring. It is so good to hear from a professional forecaster!

Best case scenario then would be 20cm for here - the warnings are for 5-10cm on Tuesday and possibly 5-10cm more on Weds at low levels - with drifting... :lol:

[Wilxy]

Do u think it's likely to happen here tho we are only on the edge of the warning

[dogs32]

well I am going for a 1981 scenario....1ft plzzz :lol:

Penny Tranter looked confident of snow for this week at 7.00am forecast

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[noggin]

Do u think it's likely to happen here tho we are only on the edge of the warning

When I looked last (yesterday) we weren't even on the edge!

The difference between yesterday and today is that Bristol, BANES and S Gloucs are now in the advisory area, whereas yesterday they were not.

As I said in my other post....it's an improvement. You wouldn't want the risk area to be getting further away, would you?!

[Wilxy]

No way but still not getting to excited even tho i did sound it for some reason xmas day was looking great here not so much now.

[twister2005]

Hello all, looking good for next week and i havent got to go back to work til 4th jan

[dogs32]

Hello all, looking good for next week and i havent got to go back to work til 4th jan

lol...dont count your chicken's to early before they hatch :lol:

But Like you I am hopefull as this LP bump's into this very cold air from Monday onward's it produces snow for us..

I can remember many times this situation from this direction as produced a large dumping.

I can also remember many that it was just very wet snow with rain..

Very optimistic at present and would prefer to be this way than doom and gloom from some poster's..

Happy snow fest Twister :lol:

though its not in the bag just yet and still is a few days away

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[Nights King]

It really does look close for us in north somerset/bath/bristol area however even at this range it could change slightly further north or south! West country could end up with just heavy rain or it could well end up with snow through much of the region.

Too close to call and I think we should just wait until monday evening before we can look at our chances in what will be another knife edge situation indeed.

Maybe Ian could give us some information closer to the time on his ideas are for west country and just hope It is not moved north again.

I really should get on with my work!

[noggin]

No way but still not getting to excited even tho i did sound it for some reason xmas day was looking great here not so much now.

I try not to get too excited, either......the let-downs are so painful! :lol: :lol: :lol:

But, the MetO forecast has improved for our area (S Gloucs) and that has to be good, although it might not happen. We cannot be sure with snow, exactly where it will fall and how much there might be. It's a bit of a guessing game, really. But, then again, was last Sunday's dumping forecast? I can't remember. What a fabulous surprise that was! And the last of the lying snow only melted in my back garden yesterday!

So, we cannot be 100% sure, but it's looking more hopeful than it did yesterday.

Having said that though, it may well change again later!

It doesn't half fray the old nerves to shreds!

[Snowman15]

No snow forecast for Dorset next week - STANDARD!

Ah well, we will get ours in February hopefully!

[noggin]

It really does look close for us in north somerset/bath/bristol area

Yep....again!! I wonder we haven't all chewed our fingernails down to the quick, or ended up on anti-depressants by now!

And just think.......we've still got January and February to go! :lol: :lol:

[Ian Fergusson]

It's a very, very tricky one to call correctly for much of our region - especially the northern districts, as you might expect in this set-up. The UKMO's tweaked advisory now caters for some additional overnight output and the inclusion of S Glos / Bristol / B&ANES and N. Somerset seemed wholly prudent.

Heavy rain is clearly the likely outcome for extreme SW peninsula and equally the southern strip of England, but you'll note how the GM handles the progression northwards of 850-1000hPa temps (sharp gradient into the likes of Bristol and environs) and PPN in the attached frame grabs from overnight output; note also the output probs (snowfall) from ECMWF ENS, which shows the hint of higher snowfall PROB (darker blue is obviously higher PROB) from a line at around Bristol northwards (i.e., not dissimilar, I suppose, to the spatial snow/rain discrimination we observed during the second of the Feb 2009 snowfall events here albeit with a different set-up at play).

The central/east Wales focus and probable blizzard scenario there is looking very solid with each run but I'd personally be very surprised is the Cotswolds and Forest of Dean didn't take a whammy from this..... and potentially, a truly noteworthy one. I'm going to take a punt and work on that expectation, broadcast-wise. The raw GM wants to paint 15cm snow into central and east Wales by Thurs, with 5-10cm more widely into SW Midlands and elsewhere, so evidently it could prove a major pain in the neck for transport infrastructure and jo public generally (fun for the sprogs and those not having to get into work, obviously).

Bristol and lower-level environs are so on-the-cusp that at this stage, it's impossible to call either way but suffice to say I'm briefing our news journos to expect more potential misery on our road network locally into Wed / Thurs (and perhaps beyond, if our latest 4-5 day and 6-10 guidance is to be believed.... snow risk is almost omnipresent, but with the expected low confidence bounds).

[twister2005]

Thanks for the update Ian, its looking very interesting for these parts

[03jtrickey]

Thanks very much Ian! Great to see ECM ensemble predictions too. I must say I'm starting to get a little excited about this potential event.

[yamkin]

Will Hand's updated forecast is amazing. Even though his forecast is for Dartmoor, I can see the S/SE getting quite a lot of snow later in the week as well..........Enjoy http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

Edited December 27, 2009 by yamkin