Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Nick L]

I'm going with the GFS on this one, I said yesterday that this possible event won't actually bring any snow. I stand by that.

Despite the fact that every single other model is going against it? That's no exaggeration, the GFS op has zero support from nowhere, even its own ensembles don't go entirely with it!

Edited December 27, 2009 by nick2702

[azores92]

should be an interesting countryfile forecast imho. they will probably play it safe though

[Barb]

Today's latest Fax charts should please you Midlanders (and us Welsh).

[Serendipity]

I'm going with the GFS on this one, I said yesterday that this possible event won't actually bring any snow. I stand by that.

You're chirpy today! I'm going to stick my neck out and say that I think there WILL be snow. One of us will be right...

I'm actually reasonably optimistic!

[Nick L]

Met Office warnings have just been updated, it's clear to see what they are backing!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well one thing is for certain, we will either get an absolute drenching or an absolute pasting...

the fax charts look great, we are on the cold side, only mild on south coast, but 12Z's crucial tonight

[we_want_snow]

Weekly weather forecast not giving anything different away, just a wintery mix everywhere

[azores92]

Weekly weather forecast not giving anything different away, just a wintery mix everywhere

imho they were showing some significant snow at times across the northern midlands in particular through tuesday and wednesday, and things staying wintry throughout to friday. another very wintry forecast, not quite up there with the february forecasts, but certainly classic.

[we_want_snow]

People on here were suggesting 1ft though, not 10cm. To be honest, the forecast was basic as they don't have a clue, like none of us have a clue

Edited December 27, 2009 by we_want_snow

[PolarWarsaw]

06z were dreadful for snow here - still the beeb are going for heavy snow Tuesday through into Wednesday before thing move slowly south during the rest of the week.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

FAX charts are simply fantastic for the midlands/wales and maybe North west England.

WARNINGS in force for all those areas Tue/wed butit will be watched closely.

This means the snow threat could move south or north.

i stand by what i said the other day,midlands looks very good for big snowfall totals.

[we_want_snow]

What sorts of depths are we thinking. BBC forecast said 10cm, what do us lot think

[BlueHedgehog074]

Looking at some of the weather forcasts and the intensity of the snow for Tuesday, I guess anywhere around 7 - 15cm with perhaps upto 30cm on the tallest hills.

[Supercell]

Well... the met office has warnings for Weds and Thurs. 5-10 cm (Up to 20cm on hills) on Weds and a further 5-10cm on Thurs. If those sort of figures were to be realised, many of us would see our heaviest falls of snow for a long, long time.

[phil nw.]

Veru heavy hail and sleet here, awful out there.

Yes the radar showed quite a rash of showers coming through the Cheshire gap across the n.midlands

Colder air filtering back south could be stting them off Ian?

[we_want_snow]

Usually, we're all slating the metoffice for being wrong.

Lets all hope this time's different

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It's very tricky, hopefully the GFS will back away from it's scenario of aggressively pushing a trough up the Irish Sea and the PPN and milder air with it. The METO are hedging their bets with the warnings, because initially the snow band won't be that big North to South until/unless their is some undercutting of the cold air.

still think we might be too far north, the main snow risk seems to be SW midlamds and S wales, but still could change, and Staffordshire will get some,

even so I cant see it sticking, ground too wet

[Nick L]

This isn't a simple case of dismissing the GFS because we don't like it. It is different in the sense that it doesn't have a single shred of support for Tues/Wed, every single model has a favourable outcome for most of the Midlands on Tues/Wed. Even the GFS ensembles are a mess.

The Met Office and BBC seem fairly confident that there will be a lot of snow somewhere!

[Eugene]

even so I cant see it sticking, ground too wet

What nonsense this is, the snow had no problem settling here last week and we only had a brief heavy snow shower and it has lasted until today in the shade in the countryside, i was out yesterday morning in the bright sunshine and it was icey on paths and ponds still frozen and i said to myself this is the mild spell then is it, the ground is still hard and snow will have no problems settling on it, actually the mild snap has been cr*p here having no effect on icey patches in the shade in rural areas, we need proper extended mild spells with temps into double figures with mild dew points to melt the ice, its just too cold for that right now with an air frost likely tonight.

[hammerb32]

What nonsense this is, the snow had no problem settling here last week and we only had a brief heavy snow shower and it has lasted until today in the shade in the countryside, i was out yesterday morning in the bright sunshine and it was icey on paths and ponds still frozen and i said to myself this is the mild spell then is it, the ground is still hard and snow will have no problems settling on it, actually the mild snap has been cr*p here having no effect on icey patches in the shade in rural areas, we need proper extended mild spells with temps into double figures with mild dew points to melt the ice, its just too cold for that right now with an air frost likely tonight.

Fully agree, there's going to be 2 nights of sub zero temps prior to the snow arriving, the ground will be plenty cold enough

[cyclonic happiness]

Not looking good on the 12z for much of the midlands , hope the GFS is still a bit awry, the other models seem ok.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

Edited December 27, 2009 by cyclonic happiness

[Nick L]

Not looking good on the 12z for much of the midlands , hope the GFS is still a bit awry, the other models seem ok.

http://www.meteociel...gfse_cartes.php

Agreed, GFS is awful for us once again.

[conor123]

The GFS does have 0c dewpoints and a temperature of 1c over us Tuesday Afternoon despite the milder upper air moving in but still get that awfully mild air over us Tuesday Night into Wednesday...

[cyclonic happiness]

The GFS does have 0c dewpoints and a temperature of 1c over us Tuesday Afternoon despite the milder upper air moving in but still get that awfully mild air over us Tuesday Night into Wednesday...

Good old marginal setup then....."yawns and goes to sleep until spring"

[azores92]

melikes what the NAE has to say, widespread snow across the midlands and wales by 12pm tuesday