General Model Output Discussion

[Methuselah]

Whats amazing is +384 only takes us to mid Jan with 6 weeks still left of winter. In recent years we have had to wait until Feb before winter even begins.

I must admit if the 12Z verified I would probably welcome a milder spell from mid Jan onwards. Im going to dread my gas/elect bills if this continues! My own fault for paying quarterly.

A mean of -11C is quiet amazing for Cambs.

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100102/12/t850Cambridgeshire.png

I agree, Dave...This is getting really scary. I've not seen 17 (let alone 27!) successive days of snowcover since 1963! (Dec 1981 perhaps, for the 17?)

[West is Best]

Does anyone have any idea when the uppers over North Africa last dropped to -5c and below? Surely this would bring snow showers over inland Algeria and Morocco even at low levels considering how warm the Mediterranean is...

As you may know, snow is very common in the mountains of north Africa. There are ski resorts e.g. in Morocco and Algeria and I've flown over very white Atlas mountains a number of times. It's rarer to lower levels, although curiously I can recall a number of times on here discussing the -5 850Pa hitting north Africa. A very famous instance occurred on 27th January 2005.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/4213129.stm

When blizzards swept the city of Algiers on the Mediterranean coast.

So, yes it's an amazing sight to see that on the 12z run, but not completely unheard of.

Edited January 2, 2010 by West is Best

[kold weather]

Ensembles look pretty crazy, many of the runs keep the cold going past the 15th of Jan and into the 2nd half of Jan....if thye charts even come close to what is progged I think it'll be safe to say this will be one of the most extreme cold set-ups we've seen in several decades...

[MR EXTREMES]

everyone must be out in the snow because its very quiet in here.

im not because theres none here lol,

but still i hope the models bring some record breaking stuff id be happy to see this through feb lol,

very unlikely.

still im waiting to see what happens here on the southcoast perhapes an attack from the south or southwest.

[TEITS]

Some more stunning output this time from the NOGAPS.

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-144.png?02-18

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/nogaps/run/nogaps-0-180.png?02-19

[johnholmes]

I must admit if the 12Z verified I would probably welcome a milder spell from mid Jan onwards. Im going to dread my gas/elect bills if this continues! My own fault for paying quarterly.

http://charts.netwea...bridgeshire.png

I don't think you will be the only one in 2 weeks time to be pretty horrified with energy bills-and we have to hope that with the degree of cold being solidly predicted that the energy companies can provide it 24/7. Also the road authorities as I doubt any -following the Met O prediction for winter and the briefing they will have given,will have stocks for this length. Scotland is into its 3 rd week already and many areas could end up with about 4 weeks IF the models verify. There is nothing in any of the short or long term ideas from any source that suggests this will not happen.

No apologies, as in my blog, PLEASE think about those less fit and able than most on here through this spell.

[azores92]

dont worry badboy, there has only been 2cm of snow here this winter, though going by the models next week could deliver snow showers from tuesday through to wednesday quite widely, and the gfs keeps the cold going for some time yet. this probably means maxima slightly below freezing for much of england and wales.

[Duane S.]

everyone must be out in the snow because its very quiet in here.

im not because theres none here lol,

but still i hope the models bring some record breaking stuff id be happy to see this through feb lol,

very unlikely.

still im waiting to see what happens here on the southcoast perhapes an attack from the south or southwest.

I would say there is growing potential for us Tuesday going into Wednesday and indeed Thursday. Unstable air below us, possible trough forming off N France as well. I think this is going to become increasing interesting.

[chionomaniac]

This looks like a fairly slow moving cold front for next Tuesday on the latest fax charts.

Could give prolonged snowfall in central areas.

[MR EXTREMES]

I would say there is growing potential for us Tuesday going into Wednesday and indeed Thursday. Unstable air below us, possible trough forming off N France as well. I think this is going to become increasing interesting.

only thing i noticed on the fax charts it seem the front moving down from the north will absolutely drop tons of the white stuff midlands north it seems to stall there for a fair few hours,

if after that it carried on moving south there wont be much left on it.

but still its a few days away yet things could change.

ecm soon i wonder what that has instore for us.

[cooling climate]

Hard to add to what has already been said, simply fantastic synoptics with a possible 10+ day

very cold wintry spell that I would gladly take instead of the Jan 1987 severe spell simply because

of duration (from now until 8+ days many areas will not see temperatures rise above +1c at best).

This is plenty cold enough for lying snow without any noticeable thaw.

I can not understand why some posters keep saying it will not turn out as good as being shown,

why not?.

I would not be at all surprised to see the Scandinavian high strengthen further over the next day

or two on the models and then for it to eventually retrograde.

A severe and potentially serious freeze on the way thats for sure.

[Rob K]

ecm soon i wonder what that has instore for us.

ECM out to 144 hours on Meteociel: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

Scandy high, easterly flow a little slacker than the 00Z run, but very cold air (510dam touching east coast)

[TEITS]

Another excellent ECM run coming up.

The only thing I will say is the suggestion from the GFS/ECM for this period suggests a NE/ENE,ly rather than a direct E,ly. This would probably benefit those in E Anglia rather than those in the SE looking for a streamer. However quiet possible a direct E,ly comes at +168/+192.

Also at this range the exact flow is still uncertain. A NE/ENE/E,ly would distribute the snow showers slightly differently.

I forgot to add that the strength of the NE/E,ly is uncertain. This again has an effect on the distribution of snow showers. This detail will not be resolved until +48/+72.

Edited January 2, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[J10]

ECM now trickling out, not too much change to the 00Hz out to T+144.

[NorthantsSnow]

ECM T168 looks rather snowy;

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Great chart!

[kev238]

As far as I can tell, the snow potential really increases from Tuesday onwards. Anything before, should be considered a bonus unless you are right on the East coast.

In Nottingham we have had bits and pieces of snow over the past few weeks- I expect more if the models verify correctly especially if we do get winds of an easterly or ENE direction as suggested by some of the models.

[Alex95]

I've noticed there is a definite tendency for the Scandi High to be pushed northwards next weekend. People in the SE may not have taken that much notice, but the 12z ECM in particular would bring a good, snowy easterly to NE parts of the country as well. By that stage there will (hopefully ) be thick snow already on the ground in the NE so this should become a pretty severe spell up here.

Edited January 2, 2010 by alza

[kold weather]

To be honest though TEITS the set-up is such that even a small amount of snow will probably stick around long enough for a top up, it won't be the type of set-up we've had before where the snow falls only to melt 20 mins later..however your right it favours EA rather then SE (though East Kent would be a good bet)

Anyway the 12z ECM is a stonker of a run!!

Disturbance develops and probably brings in an area of snow from the east, just on the northern side of the low would be where you'd get the best snowfalls...

What is most mental is the fact that even the worst of the runs we've seen recently would have been met with utter amazement and shock back in seasons like 2007/08, now it just seems to be the every day thing!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM T168 looks rather snowy;

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Great chart!

And more importantly re cold spell it shows retrograde of the Scandi HP starting towards Greenland, only one way from there, basically reloading the pattern. I would expect decent snowfall for SE and E on the 144-168.

BFTP

Edited January 2, 2010 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[TEITS]

I've noticed there is a definite tendency for the Scandi High to be pushed northwards next weekend. People in the SE may not have taken that much notice, but the 12z ECM in particular would bring a good, snowy easterly to NE parts of the country as well. By that stage there will (hopefully ) be thick snow already on the ground in the NE so this should become a pretty severe spell up here.

Indeed and the possible trend beyond is the HP returning to its home in Greenland and we see another push of bitterly cold arctic air on its E flank.

Personally im not looking at these charts for snowfall at the moment. Im just making sure the general trend remains intact. If the trend remains then the snow will come but its also impossible to predict the exact flow and the strength.

[J10]

To be honest though TEITS the set-up is such that even a small amount of snow will probably stick around long enough for a top up, it won't be the type of set-up we've had before where the snow falls only to melt 20 mins later..however your right it favours EA rather then SE (though East Kent would be a good bet)

Anyway the 12z ECM is a stonker of a run!!

Disturbance develops and probably brings in an area of snow from the east, just on the northern side of the low would be where you'd get the best snowfalls...

What is most mental is the fact that even the worst of the runs we've seen recently would have been met with utter amazement and shock back in seasons like 2007/08, now it just seems to be the every day thing!

Normally there were stuck at T+240 as well, never seeming to get any closer.

This ECM seems to push the high further north as well.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

To be honest though TEITS the set-up is such that even a small amount of snow will probably stick around long enough for a top up, it won't be the type of set-up we've had before where the snow falls only to melt 20 mins later..however your right it favours EA rather then SE (though East Kent would be a good bet)

Anyway the 12z ECM is a stonker of a run!!

Disturbance develops and probably brings in an area of snow from the east, just on the northern side of the low would be where you'd get the best snowfalls...

What is most mental is the fact that even the worst of the runs we've seen recently would have been met with utter amazement and shock back in seasons like 2007/08, now it just seems to be the every day thing!

I agree - to be honest I will quite be happy with a decent enough covering and low enough temps to keep it there. The pre-requesite is to get a good enough snow cover and then have the cold to sustain it on the basis that top-ups every now and then are sufficient. On that basis I am happy with the 12z ECM as it does indeed start to transfer the snow zone northwards. Crucially though there is no melt to follow and still chances of further snowfalls and still being able to get out and enjoy it!

Edited January 2, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Alex95]

Indeed and the possible trend beyond is the HP returning to its home in Greenland and we see another push of bitterly cold arctic air on its E flank.

Personally im not looking at these charts for snowfall at the moment. Im just making sure the general trend remains intact. If the trend remains then the snow will come but its also impossible to predict the exact flow and the strength.

I'm not really looking at next week's easterly much anyway, plenty more snow to get through first this evening and then again during most of next week, but I just made that observation and north is the best way for the H.P. to go for an E'ly as far as NE England is concerned. And yes, retrogression to Greenland is another trend which is emerging. It has been said that in nearly all the severe winters that the UK has experienced milder weather would be forecast to move in eventually, but it always got pushed back a few more days. A bit like cold snaps in the last decade, the breakdown is always in F.I.!

Edited January 2, 2010 by alza

[MR EXTREMES]

And more importantly re cold spell it shows retrograde of the Scandi HP starting towards Greenland, only one way from there, basically reloading the pattern. I would expect decent snowfall for SE and E on the 144-168.

BFTP

yep thats what i was looking at it would seem that way,

but surely if its to weak this could allow a breakdown from the west?.

[TEITS]

I agree - to be honest I will quite happy with a decent enough covering and low enough temps to keep it there. Th pre-requesite is to get a good enough snow cover and then have the cold to sustain it on the basis that top-ups every now and then are sufficient. On that basis I am happy with the 12z ECM as it does indeed start to transfer the snow zone northwards. Crucially though there is no melt to follow.

Evening Tamara.

I will add to SE members not to take too much notice of what I say (I never do!). I bet the flow i.e ENE,E,ly and the strength will change many times even right up until +48.

Very nice the ECM ends with a blizzard.