Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Cheese Rice]

I'm looking forward to tomorrows snowfall should be really good .

GFS and BBC do push the PPN further west meaning only North (West)/ West/ South Yorkshire are affected, this can change, but as it is so close it is likely to happen. GFS is going for a good 6 hours of snowfall for West Yorkshire, temps before the snow should be really low as well, added by the already 5-10cm snow cover already on the ground we could see over 20cm (in total).

Edit: BBC Website does not show the updated graphics

Edited January 4, 2010 by 10123

[Just Before Dawn]

I'm looking forward to tomorrows snowfall should be really good .

GFS and BBC do push the PPN further west meaning only North (West)/ West/ South Yorkshire are affected, this can change, but as it is so close it is likely to happen. GFS is going for a good 6 hours of snowfall for West Yorkshire, temps before the snow should be really low as well, added by the already 5-10cm snow cover already on the ground we could see over 20cm (in total).

Edit: BBC Website does not show the updated graphics

Really? GFS precipitation charts (which are of value, but only of limited value) show a fairly uniform band of precipitation all the way across the region, it suggests that it is most intense in the west from the approach, but intensifies in the east as it travels through.

[PMPhotography]

I would say your fine being further North on the coast, it may fall as sleet/wet snow for a time for most areas in East Yorkshire, or it may be snow from the start, it all depends. We now know by the models whats happening, so it's a case of now casting and keeping an eye on your conditions at the time, dew point is important it could be the only stumbling block IMHO.

The precipitation is expected to hit around 5am in the morning, given the temp is still at 0c here, they will quickly drop off again tonight for all areas, i can honestly say that i doubt temps will recover much tomorrow even when the precipitation hits.

Lewis

Cheers Mate,

Temp -2C already here with Dew point of-4.2C! The dew point on my weather station has fixed itself just in time! I was getting -175.5C this morning. Hope it holds out because it's fairly vital I'm guessing!

Just been asked If I have any good pictures to use as next years St Catherines hospice Christmas card so hopefully some cracking winter scenes coming up!

[Lewis]

I'm looking forward to tomorrows snowfall should be really good .

GFS and BBC do push the PPN further west meaning only North (West)/ West/ South Yorkshire are affected, this can change, but as it is so close it is likely to happen. GFS is going for a good 6 hours of snowfall for West Yorkshire, temps before the snow should be really low as well, added by the already 5-10cm snow cover already on the ground we could see over 20cm (in total).

Edit: BBC Website does not show the updated graphics

Yep, and like you said your area seeing that much is great because the heaviest if further East across East Yorkshire, looks amazing.

Lewis

According to the NAE the front is now delayed slightly, and should hit around dawn.

Lewis

[Cheese Rice]

Really? GFS precipitation charts (which are of value, but only of limited value) show a fairly uniform band of precipitation all the way across the region, it suggests that it is most intense in the west from the approach, but intensifies in the east as it travels through.

I may be wrong but looking at the GFS the East Coat has very light PPN, which would probably result in nothing at all. And even if it did result into some very light PPN it would probably be rain as dew points aren't favourable for the east coast. As the PPN moves further south it moves further east so in time the east coast may get something, probably from Grimsby south are likely to see something wintry. Nearer the time it will become clearer, and it wouldn't take much for the PPN to move further east, but as it stands It looks like anywhere along the east coast from Grimsby North are unlikely to see anything from the band of snow. The latest BBC forecast does support this.

Edited January 4, 2010 by 10123

[smhouston]

Personally I'm not expecting much from this at all, maybe 1cm. I think a lot of people are going to be dissapointed with tonights/tomorrows snow as it seems to be getting ramped up quite a lot when it only looks like light/medium snow IMO, and only a couple of hours worth, if that (apart from a few small locations).

Then again, I'm not a weather forecaster, and I'm rubbish at reading charts, so I'm probably (and hopefully) wrong!

[sunny scunny]

Wow, the temp is already down to -3c here

[PMPhotography]

I may be wrong but looking at the GFS the East Coat has very light PPN, which would probably result in nothing at all. And even if it did result into some very light PPN it would probably be rain as dew points aren't favourable for the east coast. As the PPN moves further south it moves further east so in time the east coast may get something, probably from Grimsby south are likely to see something wintry. Nearer the time it will become clearer, and it wouldn't take much for the PPN to move further east, but as it stands It looks like anywhere along the east coast from Grimsby North are unlikely to see anything from the band of snow. The latest BBC forecast does support this.

Is it going to warm up that much because I have a temp of -2.2C with a dew point of -4.2C at the moment. (Osgodby, Scarborough, About 200mtrs from the coast!)

[WS Evolution]

Paul Hudson saying only light snow (1cm or so be for it clears) for North Yorkshire tomorrow morning. This backs up the bbc forecast and latest charts with the heavy stuff in the west until it reaches the midlands.

There seems to be a dry sector in central Scotland, maybe thats the area heading to North Yorkshire.

Edited January 4, 2010 by WS Evolution

[The PIT]

Hopefully the rapidly rising temps here are just a glitch. If not I detect another none event occuring with rain around and snow only the highest regions again.

[turna]

for the models to flip flop around so much between the 6z and 12z no doubt the 18z will show something different again. it is down to radar watching, lamp post watching and a few hail mary's i reckon now. still showing significant potential imo.

[sparky1972]

if we all go to bed at some point tonight expecting to see rain when we wake up, if it is snowing which i am sure thats what most of us wish for then we will be pleasently surprised rather than bitterly disapointed if we want snow but its raining. i have been reading some of the posts here and there seem to be a few which suggest some will see rain instead of snow.i for one want to see snow and lots of it. lol

[Lewis]

I may be wrong but looking at the GFS the East Coat has very light PPN, which would probably result in nothing at all. And even if it did result into some very light PPN it would probably be rain as dew points aren't favourable for the east coast. As the PPN moves further south it moves further east so in time the east coast may get something, probably from Grimsby south are likely to see something wintry. Nearer the time it will become clearer, and it wouldn't take much for the PPN to move further east, but as it stands It looks like anywhere along the east coast from Grimsby North are unlikely to see anything from the band of snow. The latest BBC forecast does support this.

Have you been following discussion again today? or have you just jumped on board... As soon as your area has a shot (Typical IMBY posts from you again)

Areas to receive the heaviest of the precipitation at first will be N areas, there is also a chance of Parts of West Yorkshire (Doncaster area and South Yorkshire) doing really well, again as the front pivots (wrapped around the LP) the risk transfers to Eastern Parts of Yorkshire, and NE Lincs, where the precipitation will be at it's heaviest.

I can't see rain other than extreme coastal areas (practically on the beach) Reef made a really good post with fantastic SKEW-T Charts, which come from the higher resolution, it's more in-depth and analyzed data.

Also the shortwave across Western Isles/Ireland pulls in a tighter flow on it's Northern Flank.

This also wont the be last and only short wave to develop in this systems flow, just shows the extreme instability at present.

Lewis

Edited January 4, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Guest]

Hopefully the rapidly rising temps here are just a glitch. If not I detect another none event occuring with rain around and snow only the highest regions again.

I highly doubt that.

[Just Before Dawn]

I may be wrong but looking at the GFS the East Coat has very light PPN, which would probably result in nothing at all. And even if it did result into some very light PPN it would probably be rain as dew points aren't favourable for the east coast. As the PPN moves further south it moves further east so in time the east coast may get something, probably from Grimsby south are likely to see something wintry. Nearer the time it will become clearer, and it wouldn't take much for the PPN to move further east, but as it stands It looks like anywhere along the east coast from Grimsby North are unlikely to see anything from the band of snow. The latest BBC forecast does support this.

Oh, OK - Yeah I see what you mean - The GFS does have fairly light ppn in the coastal parts of North Yorks and northern East Yorks, but the PPN band from around 12pm suggests some fairly intense precipitation in a line from Bridlington through parts of East Yorks and Lincs to Central Nottinghamshire. That should fall as snow, if it verifies, and it's of decent intensity. As for rain on the coast, that remains to be seen. The dew points are suggestive of that, but virtually all the other factors (Thicknesses, ground temps, lower air temps etc) point to a more wintery scenario.

Still, Lincolnshire isn't in South or West Yorkshire (they lynch you for that sort of suggestion round here! ), and the ppn looks fine in intensity, and the right side of marginal for the most part.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Just Before Dawn

[The PIT]

I highly doubt that.

Worth keeping an eye on. Seems to have stopped at 0.3C. But it shot up from -0.6C to 0.4C in about 20 minutes. Winds picked up as well which will be one reason for the tempature rise.

[sunny scunny]

Paul Hudson saying only light snow (1cm or so be for it clears) for North Yorkshire tomorrow morning. This backs up the bbc forecast and latest charts with the heavy stuff in the west until it reaches the midlands.

There seems to be a dry sector in central Scotland, maybe thats the area heading to North Yorkshire.

What about the rest of us???

[The PIT]

Paul Hudson saying only light snow (1cm or so be for it clears) for North Yorkshire tomorrow morning. This backs up the bbc forecast and latest charts with the heavy stuff in the west until it reaches the midlands.

There seems to be a dry sector in central Scotland, maybe thats the area heading to North Yorkshire.

Nah that will be heading towards sheffield mate not North Yorkshire.

[grab my graupel]

If Paul Hudson's forecast can change so dramatically in such a short period of time, I expect it may change again.

[sunny scunny]

If Paul Hudson's forecast can change so dramatically in such a short period of time, I expect it may change again.

Thats why i hardly ever watch the forecasts, as they are very inconsistant

[sparky1972]

well i have just seen the bbc forecast on news 24 and i now have to ask the question what is all the excitement about, it showed very little snow over lincs that i now think this is going to be one big disapointment for quite a few of us here.

[WS Evolution]

Thats why i hardly ever watch the forecasts, as they are very inconsistant :lol:

They change because he keeps an eye on the latest charts. He often forecasts late chances in forecasts before other forecasters. I would say hes more up to date.. but still it can still change.

[Lewis]

well i have just seen the bbc forecast on news 24 and i now have to ask the question what is all the excitement about, it showed very little snow over lincs that i now think this is going to be one big disapointment for quite a few of us here.

Just checked the NMM model, nothing at all on that, anywhere really, it's not even i would say moderate even when it hits the W Midlands.

Over and out for me tonight. Might even stay dry here tomorrow.

Lewis

[on the coast]

Yep looks like this feature is staying inland according to the bbc, a case of watching the radar i think nearer the time.

[Schnee]

So we might do well from it?