Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[nrhforestry]

-2.5c here at 9.00am cold and sunny with a dusting of overnight snow.

[Just Before Dawn]

what difference a day makes, just seen the bbc forecast and there is more rain than snow being forecast and nothing to get excited about.

It's a bit early to be writing this one off yet. There was always going to be a bit of rain or sleet in some coastal areas as the front moves down tomorrow (though we are more favoured for snow in the East), after it moves through things look much better.

Look at John's post a bit further up - he's not someone who is taken to ramping and his post is pretty unequivocal.

[grab my graupel]

Wow, the 00z run is an absolute beauty for us folks. It will be Scotland that see's

the best of the precipitation today, but for much of the week, we appear to be in pole position.

Things are still likely to change, but it shows that nothing can be ruled out this week. Good stuff!!!

Noticed, also, that lastnights GEM 12z was showing a similar scenario

[Richard Lake]

Nice to remain so positive John, but I've expressed how I feel in the Model Chat and Moods thread in more detail.

Bitterly disappointed by the BBC Weather forecast this morning as the Easterly seems to have entirely disappeared. No great easterly convection now it seems Lewis.

[sunny scunny]

One minute im reading posts saying it's looking great, and the next minute completely the opposite

[PMPhotography]

Freezing cold last night! Temp dropped to -5.8C and I had to prize the back door open this morning as it had frozen.

Temp now -3.5C.

Metoffice have the band of PPN falling as snow at first but then warming up to 3C and rain! Any thoughts?

I'm not too concerned as it's snowfest after that!

Another point though. They have us forecast for snow but the temps are surprising! daytime max of 4C and not below freezing even at night for the whole week. Thats warmer than the last 2 weeks! I'm confused!

Any input appreciated!

[grab my graupel]

One minute im reading posts saying it's looking great, and the next minute completely the opposite

Aside from the East Coast, precipitation will fall as Snow imo. The NMM backs this up too.

Ignore the BBC and stick with Netweather

[Lewis]

Freezing cold last night! Temp dropped to -5.8C and I had to prize the back door open this morning as it had frozen.

Temp now -3.5C.

Metoffice have the band of PPN falling as snow at first but then warming up to 3C and rain! Any thoughts?

I'm not too concerned as it's snowfest after that!

Another point though. They have us forecast for snow but the temps are surprising! daytime max of 4C and not below freezing even at night for the whole week. Thats warmer than the last 2 weeks! I'm confused!

Any input appreciated!

Shows freezing all week too me in Hull,

Tomorrow is a massive downgrade for precipitation though, i think it will end up west and N to our region, rather than over us.

Lewis

[sunny scunny]

Tomorrow is a massive downgrade for precipitation though, i think it will end up west and N to our region, rather than over us.

Lewis

The PPN looks good to me mate,although slightly delayed on the GFS6Z compared to the previous run.

[Lewis]

The PPN looks good to me mate,although slightly delayed on the GFS6Z compared to the previous run.

Sorry mate,

I was basing it on the 00z output, the 06z is much better and has the warmer sectors less pronounced.

GFS 06z shows the band hitting around 9am, lets hope the temps get down to -6 over night tonight

lewis

Lovely crisp sunny start to the morning here in Hull;

http://www.weatherinhull.com/cam.html

-1.8c with a dew of -3.5

Lowest temp over night after the cloud finally cleared was -3.7c

lewis

[grab my graupel]

Sorry mate,

I was basing it on the 00z output, the 06z is much better and has the warmer sectors less pronounced.

GFS 06z shows the band hitting around 9am, lets hope the temps get down to -6 over night tonight

lewis

Precipitation was excellent on the 00z, Lewis

Noticable also, that surface temps barely rise above 0c for most of the week. I think peolpe are panicing too much.

There's room for detail to change at this stage anyway

[Lewis]

Precipitation was excellent on the 00z, Lewis

Noticable also, that surface temps barely rise above 0c for most of the week. I think peolpe are panicing too much.

There's room for detail to change at this stage anyway

Ah,

What the hell was i looking at :S... Probably got tied up with the peeps posting charts in the SE moaning in the model thread lol, but when i looked it did appear the 00z kept the heavier of the precipitation out in the N sea.

Lewis

[sunny scunny]

Precipitation was excellent on the 00z, Lewis

Noticable also, that surface temps barely rise above 0c for most of the week. I think peolpe are panicing too much.

There's room for detail to change at this stage anyway

I agree.The PPN obviously changes on the GFS every run,but we are in one of the best places for snow in the coming days,aswell as other areas.

[Richard Lake]

Okay even if I do ignore the BBC Weather Forecasts nothing changes the fact that the progged Easterly has now disappeared.

[grab my graupel]

Ah,

What the hell was i looking at :S... Probably got tied up with the peeps posting charts in the SE moaning in the model thread lol, but when i looked it did appear the 00z kept the heavier of the precipitation out in the N sea.

Lewis

I'm not sure mate. I observed the 00z with my daughter, this morning, and we both commented on how good the precipitation

looked for our region.

Anyway, as things stand at the moment, I'm rather optimistic about our snow prospects for this week.

[Lewis]

I'm not sure mate. I observed the 00z with my daughter, this morning, and we both commented on how good the precipitation

looked for our region.

Anyway, as things stand at the moment, I'm rather optimistic about our snow prospects for this week.

Sorry for mis-leading people. lol

One thing though, have you noticed once again our Easterly vanishes, the models just cannot handle an Easterly, when we get soo close to getting a lovely easterly, it just vanishes and we end up with a NE.

Maybe the easterly comes later on in the run.

Lewis

[grab my graupel]

Okay even if I do ignore the BBC Weather Forecasts nothing changes the fact that the progged Easterly has now disappeared.

Admittedly, it does look a little drier as we head toward the end of the week compared with some previous runs, but up until then, I think many of us will see some good snow amounts

[Lewis]

If this came off and the LP was a little further west, oh mammmmaa!!!!

[Just Before Dawn]

From an IMBY point of view, I'm chuffed with a NE - It generally delivers better for this area than a straight Easterly - longer sea track, better chance of instability, often colder source of air. It would also seem to verify in the models, which have shifted the most significant snow threat from the South East to East Anglia, The East Coast counties and South East Midlands. It'll change over today, perhaps only in minor ways, but there will be changes before that front moves down tomorrow.

I'm honestly not too worried about it - and I'm definately not worried about ppn - we'll get what we get and it should be a pretty impressive amount of snow by recent standards. How much? Well no model will prog that accurately, so why worry about it?

[Geordiesnow]

Sorry for mis-leading people. lol

One thing though, have you noticed once again our Easterly vanishes, the models just cannot handle an Easterly, when we get soo close to getting a lovely easterly, it just vanishes and we end up with a NE.

Maybe the easterly comes later on in the run.

Lewis

It looks the same too me Lewis is it not? Or do you mean the easterly for friday? If so, then yeah the models have downgraded it BUT you got to remember that before the models upgraded it, it was a 2-3 day event followed by high pressure on top of us and remaning very cold with severe frosts.

One thing that does worry me though is why the BBC shows a lack of PPN for, yesterday the graphics showed eastern areas to be covered in snow showers but today not so. I know GMG has said ignore them and concentrate on the net weather ones but WHY is the UKMO predicting so little PPN for Tuesday? The set up would suggest to me quite alot of snow showers following on behind the cold front

I have said quite a bit that i find the GFS charts more accurate than the UKMO/BBC charts especially in convective situations. I suppose all us easterners better hope and pray that these are more accurate

[Lewis]

It looks the same too me Lewis is it not? Or do you mean the easterly for friday? If so, then yeah the models have downgraded it BUT you got to remember that before the models upgraded it, it was a 2-3 day event followed by high pressure on top of us and remaning very cold with severe frosts.

One thing that does worry me though is why the BBC shows a lack of PPN for, yesterday the graphics showed eastern areas to be covered in snow showers but today not so. I know GMG has said ignore them and concentrate on the net weather ones but WHY is the UKMO predicting so little PPN for Tuesday? The set up would suggest to me quite alot of snow showers following on behind the cold front

I have said quite a bit that i find the GFS charts more accurate than the UKMO/BBC charts especially in convective situations. I suppose all us easterners better hope and pray that these are more accurate

Yep totally agree with you mate, i picked up on the BBC this morning at around 1:30am on bbc news 24 forecast, i private messages john about it this morning, this is what i said;

-------------------------

Good Morning John,

Read your LRF's etc, was just going to say, going by the runs, it looks as if it's going to be much drier for this part of the U.K. I also noticed the BBC are now playing down any precipitation towards the east.

Do you see the same?

and then....

John said;

Mnorning Lewis

I've not changed from the video I issued for my web site last evening.

The actual falls of snow may well change over Tuesday but still expect to see several cm's of snow during the day over most of my area-possibly sleety right on the coast but I can imagine the Wolds having up to 10cm over the week.

cheers

John

[Cal]

Morning peeps bit chilly this am , i'll do a basic breakdown of the 0600hrs GFS run for the next 12hrs starting from midnight tonight.

Midnight 850's and precipitation is to the North around the border areas.

0300hrs Tues. Slight warm sector towards the very west of the the region. Possible Rain/Sleet to start with, Snow further East.

850's, Dewpoints & Precip values.

0600hrs Tues. Higher DewPoints coming in down the East Coast. Possible Rain/Sleet Mix here. Snow further west.

0900hrs Tues. Again higher DP's around E/Yorks coast and N.Lincs Coast. Rain/Sleet mix here. Snow further west.

1200hrs Tues. Higher DP'S along N.Lincs coast Rain/Sleet mix here. Snow further west.

Obviously this is simply one models synoptic outcome of events that are subject to change, there maybe upgrades for some and downgrades for others but the general idea is there, as ever with these situations a bit of elavation helps, these are very much going to be Nowcast situations so it looks like it could be a fun 2-3 days but a bit bleary eyed model and radar watching! Enjoy it whatever .

[Geordiesnow]

I suppose one encouraging thing i do find is that yesterday, the graphics did not show the cold front to have any PPN over my area however today, this has changed and looks a little bit better. Not to be taken for granted mind because the graphics will change and hopefully the showers will pep up on the graphics aswell. I can't believe when i was listening to Peter Gibbs this morning on the BBC online forecast and saying something on the lines just a few wintry showers in eastern areas. Yet, when i read the forecast on the Met Office site(which has been updated around 3 this morning so its not a out of date forecast)

This is what it says for NE England:-

Tuesday:

Rather cloudy with further snow showers or longer spells of snow at times, these giving significant accumulations over hills. Very cold with severe night frosts. Maximum temperature 0 °C.

Updated: 0333 on Mon 4 Jan 2010

That would suggest to me more than a few wintry showers.

It will be interesting what it says when the Met Office will be using their data from the 06Z UKMO. And i think this will be coming out shortly.

Edit: btw, the Met Office forecast says exactly the same thing for Yorkshire and the Humber as the quote above.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Geordiesnow

[grab my graupel]

Nice!!

[Geordiesnow]

Nice!!

What model is that Brian? Is that the NMM model? And is this part of the UKMO output or not?

Sorry for all the questions but its all confusing however that above chart is certainly nice to look at and would also suggest more than just a few wintry showers too me.