Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

18z Rolled out, and i'm rather impressed with it

Posted this in the model thread, so i'll post it in here too;

After checking out the run, later into FI it goes crazy and everything sinks.

But it's actually a good run..

It's the less "progressive" of the models, i was looking at the higher resolution charts, and the colder 850's stick around much much longer, right until Monday here with -8 to -9 850's still on E/NE flow.

We have to remember this is still some 5-6 days away, and in model terms anything can change whether it be upgrade or downgrade, certainly nailed on up until Friday i would say, after that... well it's guessing games to which scenario we get, it could be a slow break down with the colder air stubborn to push away giving memorable snowfall. Or it could just push aside very quickly and we end back up in a S/SW wind with milder conditions. Judging by the blocking and pattern, i would not be surprised if we end up with a slow re-load.

Lewis

Some of the post on the model discussion have confussed me a little, mainly due to the amount of posts from the SE. Are we here on the east coast still going to see snow this week or not. There was a lot of disappointing posts concerning the snow storm for next weekend isn't that way too far out to worry?

Edited January 3, 2010 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[sunny scunny]

Weird thing is it has been cloudy for a few hours now and this is keeping the temp up. It was colder at tea time than it is now!

It was the same here earlier with quite a lot of cloud around,although it's clear now with the temp dropping quickly

[Cal]

18z Rolled out, and i'm rather impressed with it

Posted this in the model thread, so i'll post it in here too;

After checking out the run, later into FI it goes crazy and everything sinks.

But it's actually a good run..

It's the less "progressive" of the models, i was looking at the higher resolution charts, and the colder 850's stick around much much longer, right until Monday here with -8 to -9 850's still on E/NE flow.

We have to remember this is still some 5-6 days away, and in model terms anything can change whether it be upgrade or downgrade, certainly nailed on up until Friday i would say, after that... well it's guessing games to which scenario we get, it could be a slow break down with the colder air stubborn to push away giving memorable snowfall. Or it could just push aside very quickly and we end back up in a S/SW wind with milder conditions. Judging by the blocking and pattern, i would not be surprised if we end up with a slow re-load.

Lewis

From an IMBY point the 18hr is a massive upgrade for East Yorks & Lincs regards snow potential, starting from 0900hrs Tues and progressively getting worse more esp late weds/thurs, somewhere is going to get a huge bucket load during the middle of this week, current estimates the potential for 20-30cms to fall in favoured locations, whilst it will be nowcast situations the models are currently favouring NY Moors and Lincs Wolds, but low ground in one or two areas will receive good accumulations.

[Mark Bayley]

The thing i don't understand is everyone seems to be concentrating on the weekend yet we have Tuesday to Thursday of snow showers for many eastern districts. We also have the front pushing south during Tuesday!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

From an IMBY point the 18hr is a massive upgrade for East Yorks & Lincs regards snow potential, starting from 0900hrs Tues and progressively getting worse more esp late weds/thurs, somewhere is going to get a huge bucket load during the middle of this week, current estimates the potential for 20-30cms to fall in favoured locations, whilst it will be nowcast situations the models are currently favouring NY Moors and Lincs Wolds, but low ground in one or two areas will receive good accumulations.

Thanks for giving me some piece of mind, I was beginning to worry! I would greatly accept half of what you have estimated as long as it hangs around for a bit.

[Lewis]

Lewis

Some of the post on the model discussion have confussed me a little, mainly due to the amount of posts from the SE. Are we here on the east coast still going to see snow this week or not. There was a lot of disappointing posts concerning the snow storm for next weekendut isn't that way too fasr out to worry?

Hey,

I understand what you mean about the Model Output thread, a lot of people on the forum are from the SE, not suprisinly it is the heavier populated area in the U.K lol, which can be a tad annoying.

The folks in the South East are really concentrating on the LP over SW France pushing NE, country file picked up on it but said it may not even reach the SE and stay in the near continent. This for us is an upgrade. As the LP does not push NE'wards, our easterly remains intact much longer with -8 to -9 uppers. They should be some convective showers about still.

See the thing is, with the LP over Saturday into Sunday. If it was further NE it would bring us more snowfall if it got far enough NE, but not guaranteed, so if it did push NE and did not deliver, it would hamper our flow with the easterly and colder air, as it brings a short wave into player from NE France, if this happens it could mean the potential for the "re-load" pattern is less likely, well not exactly less likely to happen, but in terms of what has to happen to get back into the pattern it would take a lot of effort.

So the big question is will it still snow for us this week? Yes nothing has changed at all for this part of the woods, it's an upgrade for us, just a downgrade for the SE.

We also have a larger window for snowfall now lasting until at least the following Monday, going by the 18z that is, i think John Holmes will pick up on this with his LRF'S. Thing's can always change this far out, but i don't expect big changes. We just need to sort this LP out for the end of next week.

Lewis

Edited January 3, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[sunny scunny]

The thing i don't understand is everyone seems to be concentrating on the weekend yet we have Tuesday to Thursday of snow showers for many eastern districts. We also have the front pushing south during Tuesday!

I agree.Im not looking any further ahead than thursday as there is a lot happening between now and then.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Hey,

I understand what you mean about the Model Output thread, a lot of people on the forum are from the SE, not suprisinly it is the heavier populated area in the U.K lol, which can be a tad annoying.

The folks in the South East are really concentrating on the LP over SW France pushing NE, country file picked up on it but said it may not even reach the SE and stay in the near continent. This for us is an upgrade. As the LP does not push NE'wards, our easterly remains intact much longer with -8 to -9 uppers. They should be some convective showers about still.

See the thing is, with the LP over Saturday into Sunday. If it was further NE it would bring us more snowfall if i got far enough NE, but not guaranteed, so if it did push NE and did not deliver, it would hamper our flow with the easterly and colder air, as it brings a short wave into player from NE France, if this happens it could mean the potential for the "re-load" pattern is less likely, well not exactly less likely to happen, but in terms of what has to happen to get back into the pattern it would take a lot of effort.

So the big question is will it still snow for us this week? Yes nothing has changed at all for this part of the woods, it's and upgrade for us, just a downgrade for the SE.

We also have a larger window for snowfall now lasting until at least the following Monday, going by the 18z that is, i think John Holmes will pick up on this with his LRF'S. Thing's can always change this far out, but i don't expect big changes. We just need to sort this LP out for the end of next week.

Lewis

Thanks once again mate, it all seemed doom and gloom over on TWO and the model discussion thread. I was relieved when you piped up and gave a north of London contribution. Are there any warm sectors associated with tomorrow nights cold front?

[Mark Bayley]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/59644-new-year-cold-spell/

Cold spell forecast by Nick F. Well worth the read

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Just spotted a band of snow moving doen the east coast near Whitby and it has definetly intensified over the last 30 mins or so. With a bit of luck it will give those in east Yorks and Lincs a dusting!

[Lewis]

Thanks once again mate, it all seemed doom and gloom over on TWO and the model discussion thread. I was relieved when you piped up and gave a north of London contribution. Are there any warm sectors associated with tomorrow nights cold front?

Not a problem, just checked my post again, dam my spelling is poor! I type to fast and never check before posting, i think i shall check more often ..

Regarding warm sectors, they are becoming increasingly smaller in size, and tbh i don't even think they will be there, every now and then it shows a really small sector the size of my finger nail with +1 dews, but i cannot see it happening.

App i had +1 dews earlier on the earlier runs, i had -2

Also because the little warm sectors are so tiny, at a higher resolution i think they will be more or less non existent.

Lewis

Just spotted a band of snow moving doen the east coast near Whitby and it has definetly intensified over the last 30 mins or so. With a bit of luck it will give those in east Yorks and Lincs a dusting!

I have been keeping my eye on that little bugger for the best part of an hour, when it gets just East of Scarborough watch what happens it'll push SSE.

Lewis

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Not a problem, just checked my post again, dam my spelling is poor! I type to fast and never check before posting, i think i shall check more often ..

Regarding warm sectors, they are becoming increasingly smaller in size, and tbh i don't even think they will be there, every now and then it shows a really small sector the size of my finger nail with +1 dews, but i cannot see it happening.

App i had +1 dews earlier on the earlier runs, i had -2

Also because the little warm sectors are so tiny, at a higher resolution i think they will be more or less non existent.

Lewis

I have been keeping my eye on that little bugger for the best part of an hour, when it gets just East of Scarborough watch what happens it'll push SSE.

Lewis

Thats what I was expecting to be honest. Earlier on though there was a long/thin band that seemed to be heading straight for Norfolk, but as it passed me here it moved onto the lincolnshire coast instead so you never know. Wifes getting pretty cross with me now doesn't share my excitement.

Edited January 3, 2010 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Cal]

Thanks once again mate, it all seemed doom and gloom over on TWO and the model discussion thread. I was relieved when you piped up and gave a north of London contribution. Are there any warm sectors associated with tomorrow nights cold front?

Uppers (850's) are around -7, DP'S around 0 to -1, the further west you are the slightly better but you may end up too far west of precipitation, Uppers then drop to -8/9 Weds am, eventually going to -10 midday Weds, though they decrease somewhat with the forecasted heavier precip thurs am to -7 with DP'S around 0 on the coast and -1 further inland, all subject to minor change on the next few model runs of course .

[Lewis]

Thats what I was expecting to be honest. Earlier on though there was a long/thin band that seemed to be heading straight for Norfolk, but as it passed me here it moved onto the lincolnshire coast instead so you never know. Wifes getting pretty cross with me now doesn't share my excitement.

lol i know what you mean, if a model run goes tits up, i go in a mood and the miss's notices and calls me pathetic, if the snow miss's me im the same, if it hits me i'm like a school kid again, shes buggered off too bed now, sick of me haha.

Also regarding showers NNE of us, the flow is changing some what, they could make there way inland shortly.

Lewis

[Craigers]

right then people im off to bed! up early to the wolds all day and i shall have some very nice snaps for you all !

Just going to say that im looking forward to having late nights on here with you all while watching the radar etc and i shall be having a beer in the other hand! heres to a special week ahead of us

[sunny scunny]

right then people im off to bed! up early to the wolds all day and i shall have some very nice snaps for you all !

Just going to say that im looking forward to having late nights on here with you all while watching the radar etc and i shall be having a beer in the other hand! heres to a special week ahead of us

Yeah im looking forward to late nights and radar watching in the coming days

[stupotlee]

Yeah im looking forward to late nights and radar watching in the coming days

could do with a chat room setting up! totally live weather and nowcasting

I think I'll be sat here, but as it's so cold, I'll have a tribute to the russians in my hand in the form of some nice warming vodka!

Temp has fallen through the floor over the last hour and a half - from just under -2º to -4.4º and still falling - we haven't even hit midnight yet

The latest forecast suggests we may not do quite as well as we'd hoped, but at least we should get something

[Winter Warmer]

looking like an intresting week ahead hopefully my part of donny wiil get a decent amount of snow because although we have had snow it hasnt got any deeper than about a 1cm

[Schnee]

How bad is it meant to be next week? It's hard to keep track of what's going on when i'm working.

Just wondering as I have a driving job you see....

[gobbyash]

The weather girl on BBC said it would be rain, sleet and snow coming from the North. More like rain and sleet on the coast.

Hope she's wrong.

gobby

[Just Before Dawn]

-7 over the tops of the Wolds as I drove to work this morning. No precipitation overnight, but perishing! 00z GFS run took the LP system at the end of the week further South and East. Much gnashing of teeth in the SE thread, but it's good for us, keeping the NE (though at times it will be a NNE or an ENE) going right the way through to the weekend.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Just Before Dawn

[sunny scunny]

It's a bit chilly once again

[sparky1972]

what difference a day makes, just seen the bbc forecast and there is more rain than snow being forecast and nothing to get excited about.

[johnholmes]

How bad is it meant to be next week? It's hard to keep track of what's going on when i'm working.

Just wondering as I have a driving job you see....

I would say the worst for over 10 years, nearly 20 years=back to 1991, possibly longer, both in terms of temperature and snowfall for many parts of Yorkshire and Lincolnshire and Derbyshire.

That is in persistence of the cold - mean temperatures hovering around zero C every day, and with falls of snow somewhere in the 3 counties mentioned almost every day from tonight out to Friday.

[Jeremy Shockey]

-6 c now at 9 am .......a beautiful cold clear ice day ahead