Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

[Lewis]

Morning peeps bit chilly this am , i'll do a basic breakdown of the 0600hrs GFS run for the next 12hrs starting from midnight tonight.

Midnight 850's and precipitation is to the North around the border areas.

0300hrs Tues. Slight warm sector towards the very west of the the region. Possible Rain/Sleet to start with, Snow further East.

850's, Dewpoints & Precip values.

0600hrs Tues. Higher DewPoints coming in down the East Coast. Possible Rain/Sleet Mix here. Snow further west.

0900hrs Tues. Again higher DP's around E/Yorks coast and N.Lincs Coast. Rain/Sleet mix here. Snow further west.

1200hrs Tues. Higher DP'S along N.Lincs coast Rain/Sleet mix here. Snow further west.

Obviously this is simply one models synoptic outcome of events that are subject to change, there maybe upgrades for some and downgrades for others but the general idea is there, as ever with these situations a bit of elavation helps, these are very much going to be Nowcast situations so it looks like it could be a fun 2-3 days but a bit bleary eyed model and radar watching! Enjoy it whatever .

Very good informative post there Cal

I still think we should not worry about dew points unless your right on the Coast. It snowed here the other night with a +1.4c dew point and it was big flakes. Of course it all depends on when the precipitation hits us, i expect it to hit around 4am tomorrow morning, temps are going to be freezing when it hit's and i doubt we will see a rise of 4-5c in a space of an hour.

They will be evaperative cooling any how.

Lets see what the 12z throws up.

Lewis

GeordieSnow just added you to msn if you can get on

Edited January 4, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[grab my graupel]

What model is that Brian? Is that the NMM model? And is this part of the UKMO output or not?

Sorry for all the questions but its all confusing however that above chart is certainly nice to look at and would also suggest more than just a few wintry showers too me.

Sorry, I got called away, Paul

It's the NAE 06z mate. I believe the BBC/Meto use it, but it's only short-range

[Cal]

The 0600hrs NAE Model has the low slightly further North and gives a real mixed bag over the next 24hrs or so, starting of as snow for many then turning to rain, then back to snow!!

[Lewis]

The 0600hrs NAE Model has the low slightly further North and gives a real mixed bag over the next 24hrs or so, starting of as snow for many then turning to rain, then back to snow!!

Them charts/ and that model has error filled data. Look before 1 frame and after the other, it turns everything to rain even in NW europe lol....

Lewis

[grab my graupel]

The 0600hrs NAE Model has the low slightly further North and gives a real mixed bag over the next 24hrs or so, starting of as snow for many then turning to rain, then back to snow!!

Hi Cal, I think there may be an error with that second chart mate. They've just been discussing the same thing in the Model thread. It certainly doesn't appear correct to my eyes

[scotto]

Ignoring the second NAE chart things look very good for Lincs and the east midlands. I am quite looking forward to getting some proper snow.

[grab my graupel]

Them charts/ and that model has error filled data. Look before 1 frame and after the other, it turns everything to rain even in NW europe lol....

Lewis

Yeah, I reckon we should ignore that Model for now and stick with the NMM output.

[Lewis]

Huge upgrade from the Metoffice warning, just been updated. I knew they was over playing the warm sector, no mention of hills this time ;)

Yorkshire & Humber:

E Riding of Yorkshire

Kingston upon Hull

N Lincolnshire

N Yorkshire

NE Lincolnshire

S Yorkshire

W Yorkshire

York

Heavy Snow Tue 5 Jan

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of Scotland, northern England and eastern England during Tuesday.

Snow showers are likely to become heavy and frequent at times giving further falls of several cm in many areas, with the potential for 15 to 20cm locally.

Issued at: 1109 Mon 4 Jan

Edited January 4, 2010 by Storm Force Lewis

[Light Without Heat]

The 0600hrs NAE Model has the low slightly further North and gives a real mixed bag over the next 24hrs or so, starting of as snow for many then turning to rain, then back to snow!!

The only decent thing these PPN charts are good for is printing them off -hoping your ink is flammable and burning them to keep warm !

[grab my graupel]

Huge upgrade from the Metoffice warning, just been updated. I knew they was over playing the warm sector, no mention of hills this time :)

Yorkshire & Humber:

E Riding of Yorkshire

Kingston upon Hull

N Lincolnshire

N Yorkshire

NE Lincolnshire

S Yorkshire

W Yorkshire

York

Heavy Snow Tue 5 Jan

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of Scotland, northern England and eastern England during Tuesday.

Snow showers are likely to become heavy and frequent at times giving further falls of several cm in many areas, with the potential for 15 to 20cm locally.

Issued at: 1109 Mon 4 Jan

Yes, I think they've been reading this thread

[Cal]

Looks very encouraging , see the main precip band in Northern Scotland has got it's act together over the last hour or so, there is a fair bit of cloud showing up on the satelite overview so this maybe a spoiler in temps dropping later.

[Light Without Heat]

Huge upgrade from the Metoffice warning, just been updated. I knew they was over playing the warm sector, no mention of hills this time :)

Yorkshire & Humber:

E Riding of Yorkshire

Kingston upon Hull

N Lincolnshire

N Yorkshire

NE Lincolnshire

S Yorkshire

W Yorkshire

York

Heavy Snow Tue 5 Jan

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of Scotland, northern England and eastern England during Tuesday.

Snow showers are likely to become heavy and frequent at times giving further falls of several cm in many areas, with the potential for 15 to 20cm locally.

Issued at: 1109 Mon 4 Jan

Yep no mention of Rain/sleet- to be old fashioned about this and to quote me Gran - its too cold to rain .....

[Cold Winter]

Do we think tonight's snow is going to be a region-wide affair, or is it possible only western areas could be affected? Sorry to have to ask instead of being able to contribute.

[sunny scunny]

Yep things are looking very good indeed, but i'll believe it when i see it :lol:

Edited January 4, 2010 by sufc

[johnholmes]

for anyone in the Yorks, Lincs, Humberside, Derbyshire area then the next 48-72 hours, from late on today, will give some of the most notable wintry weather in a long long time-details on the precip will still be changing this time tomorrow from the models, and over the coming days for daily detail-so watch the radar-watch the sat piccs, add on the 850 and 700mb winds like I suggested the other day-and wait-it will come believe me.

Also with it is going to be almost bone chilling cold with mean temps over much of the area never reaching freezing point for possibly 2-3 days, maybe less for some, and certainly more for the hillier areas.

If you are a cold and snow fan-relax-enjoy a bit of banter as you wait for the snow king to arrive!

[Cold Winter]

The latest forecast on the BBC News channel looked a lot more promising for us as well. Snow tonight for our region rather than the horrible "wintry mix" and then a bit more snow pushing southwards during tomorrow. :lol:

[Lewis]

Do we think tonight's snow is going to be a region-wide affair, or is it possible only western areas could be affected? Sorry to have to ask instead of being able to contribute.

Not being bias at all, i really am not so apologies if this is what peeps don't want to hear.

But if you live in East Yorkshire, and N lincs including the wolds in particular, expect some very heavy falls, especially if the dews are marginal, but the right side, you will get better saturation and lot bigger flakes/ falls.

The band seems to be at its most intense around the humber and E yorks, and it stalls for a long while.

Thats why the midlands have been taking off the warnings.

Lewis

[The PIT]

for anyone in the Yorks, Lincs, Humberside, Derbyshire area then the next 48-72 hours, from late on today, will give some of the most notable wintry weather in a long long time-details on the precip will still be changing this time tomorrow from the models, and over the coming days for daily detail-so watch the radar-watch the sat piccs, add on the 850 and 700mb winds like I suggested the other day-and wait-it will come believe me.

Also with it is going to be almost bone chilling cold with mean temps over much of the area never reaching freezing point for possibly 2-3 days, maybe less for some, and certainly more for the hillier areas.

If you are a cold and snow fan-relax-enjoy a bit of banter as you wait for the snow king to arrive!

I wonder if this is going to be like other recent frontal events and despite good dew points and temps below 2c still end up being wet snow or sleet or even worse freezing rain.

[grab my graupel]

for anyone in the Yorks, Lincs, Humberside, Derbyshire area then the next 48-72 hours, from late on today, will give some of the most notable wintry weather in a long long time-details on the precip will still be changing this time tomorrow from the models, and over the coming days for daily detail-so watch the radar-watch the sat piccs, add on the 850 and 700mb winds like I suggested the other day-and wait-it will come believe me.

Also with it is going to be almost bone chilling cold with mean temps over much of the area never reaching freezing point for possibly 2-3 days, maybe less for some, and certainly more for the hillier areas.

If you are a cold and snow fan-relax-enjoy a bit of banter as you wait for the snow king to arrive!

Thanks John, your post will have, hopefully, helped settle the nerves of those who were becoming anxious over the conflicting/fluctuating forecasts

[sunny scunny]

Thanks John, your post will have, hopefully, helped settled the nerves of those who were becoming anxious over the conflicting/fluctuating forecasts

You've already got enough snow haven't you mate?

[Mark Bayley]

I wonder if this is going to be like other recent frontal events and despite good dew points and temps below 2c still end up being wet snow or sleet or even worse freezing rain.

Or perhaps split, go round Sheffield then rejoin as it heads south

I'm expecting a few cm's tomorrow. Perhaps up to 5cm if can get in the heavier bursts. After that its snow showers up to the weekend to keep topping me up I'm fairy confident of having 2cm-5cm on the ground by the end of the week. I could easily see more depending on how lucky i am with the showers

Edited January 4, 2010 by mark bayley

[Richard Lake]

Well I use AccuWeather.com on my Apple Dashboard, this does look very promising:

[grab my graupel]

You've already got enough snow haven't you mate?

No, It's what I'd call a dusting

[Harsh Climate]

I think this could be the coldest day of the winter so far here. at 12:06 the temperature is only -2.5C and feeling very chilly outside

[The PIT]

Or perhaps split, go round Sheffield then rejoin as it heads south

I'm expecting a few cm's tomorrow. Perhaps up to 5cm if can get in the heavier bursts. After that its snow showers up to the weekend to keep topping me up I'm fairy confident of having 2cm-5cm on the ground by the end of the week. I could easily see more depending on how lucky i am with the showers

Probably.

It's the words developing warm front that spell doom for me. Well tomorrow will shall know.