Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[dogs32]

look's like there really is a Midland's shield according to that image :lol:

Got to be the best image this winter!!!!

Na I wouldn't worry about it to to be honest,remember some people have just gone back today from xmas,So some at the Met are Rusty..lol

It will change latter today

Edited January 4, 2010 by dogs32

[Radiosonde]

I expect the warnings to include the midlands later, especially the north midlands.

Look at this 6z NAE chart:

The potential is there for falls of several cm, as much as 20cm over the highest hills (basically the tops of the Pennines, Peaks and Moors)

I mentioned in the cold discussion thread that it might be due to the Met Office thinking the midlands might escape with just a dusting, not enough to warrant a warning.

Best stay tuned to forecasts and the MetO website - I for one am expecting the N Mids (at least) to be included in the warning area.

The BBC forecast I saw last night showed parts of the Midlands affected by the snow pushing southwards tonight.

[Frank]

still looks like we might get some tomorrow morning to me.

Weather forcaster on local radio, forget his name now, has just said that snow will start to fall he thinks around the rush hour tomorrow morning and gradually get heavier through the day. Dont know what other areas that will also apply to though.

He also made a point of saying that we could get an inch or two in just a single heavy snow shower!

Edited January 4, 2010 by Frank

[Michael Winston]

The failed to say '' the band of snow moving down the country breaking up over the mids then intensifying over the home counties''.

A good point. The Met Office are simply hedging their bets, in my opinion. Personally, I feel optimistic about the chances of a fair covering this week. Posters on other threads were saying (in the past few days) that because of the direction and origins of the front it was unlikely to be productive due to a dry airflow. All that has now changed and a strange silence descends! If we were to get nothing from this, then my faith in the fax charts will be destroyed.

Regards and happy snow hunting,

Mike.

[weather_it_will]

I live in the SE Midlands area and travel to Midlands for work and expect to see some snow.

The weather maps are always borderline for any weather systems here, so I am optimistic I will get some of the SE snow.

Sometimes Banbury has snow on one side, and not the other, so it's all pot luck really.

[cyclonic happiness]

look's like there really is a Midland's shield according to that image :lol:

Got to be the best image this winter!!!!

Na I wouldn't worry about it to to be honest,remember some people have just gone back today from xmas,So some at the Met are Rusty..lol

It will change latter today

I remember in february exactly the same thing happened, there was a midland shaped hole in the warning right until a front was over us busy dumping 4" of snow THEN the warning went up lol!! gotta luv um

[kold weather]

I'd imagine warnings will be going up soon given the 06z output, though they may hold off tillthe 12z runs just to see whether the 12z runs back up the idea of the 06z with regards to the second trough/frontal system.

I certainly see the risk of a potent band entering the Midlands though it has to be said...5-10cms seems more then likely over a large area...

[Nick L]

But the fact that we haven't even got a warning for ice today is baffling me a bit, it's like an ice rink out there now, with precipitation falling on it in the near future will make it even more dangerous!

[Ben_Cambs]

As requested by Lancs_Northants on the EA-SE thread:

The second band looks like affecting the Midlands, East Midlands, Cambs Peterborough and Norfolk the most. It tended to fizzle out on the graphics as it headed further south

[dogs32]

I remember in february exactly the same thing happened, there was a midland shaped hole in the warning right until a front was over us busy dumping 4" of snow THEN the warning went up lol!! gotta luv um :lol:

yes,,,maybe IF we look at it in a different way...like they are debating whether to put a Orange Warning sign in later this evening....or tonight!

Edited January 4, 2010 by dogs32

[Bolton67]

As requested by Lancs_Northants on the EA-SE thread:

[Nick L]

yes,,,maybe IF we look at it in a different way...like they are debating whether to put a Orange Warning sign in later this evening....or tonight!

Debating whether it should be orange, red or the new "super-red"

[dogs32]

Debating whether it should be orange, red or the new "super-red"

yes...I know we dont think in this way,But IF it goes Orange or Red then my theory is correct...Only time will tell!!

[cyclonic happiness]

I'd imagine warnings will be going up soon given the 06z output, though they may hold off tillthe 12z runs just to see whether the 12z runs back up the idea of the 06z with regards to the second trough/frontal system.

I certainly see the risk of a potent band entering the Midlands though it has to be said...5-10cms seems more then likely over a large area...

Now now, no need to rub it in......I don't know bloomin' southeasterners in our thread...trolling about snowfall??!!!

I won't have it....I simple won't!!!!

[kold weather]

I wouldn't worry about that CH, my location in the S.Essex looking at the models is just about the worst in the country for Tuesday-Wednesday!

Saying that we've seen how bad the models are.

Still seriously I'd expect warnings later today, they probably just want some good agreement from run to run on the idea before raising the threat warning...

[Strider]

As I said yesterday, we didn't get an Orange warning until the snow was T minus 45 mins from arriving on Saturday...

The ice warnings are an even bigger joke. It must have easily been the coldest night last night this winter, no warning, yet we had one when it barely dipped below 0...

[Serendipity]

I can't really see a need for a warning at this stage. It looks likely there will be snow but the central midlands is the area least likely to see disruption I think at the moment.

I would expect flash warnings tomorrow IF the system pushing south looks like it could drop a little more snow.

As it stands though, I still think we will see SOME snow, just not significant enough amounts to warrant any advance warning.

I think they've got it just about right although am slightly surprised at the warnings for some other areas which imo shouldn't be on high alert just yet!

[hammerb32]

As I said yesterday, we didn't get an Orange warning until the snow was T minus 45 mins from arriving on Saturday...

The ice warnings are an even bigger joke. It must have easily been the coldest night last night this winter, no warning, yet we had one when it barely dipped below 0...

Hi Strider,

The MO only tend to issue Ice warnings for areas that have has had recent precipitation that is likely to freeze, I'm guessing that's why we've not had the warnings for Ice. Last night was exceptionally cold though, not sure if anyone has any reports of badly affected roads in the area?

[cyclonic happiness]

I think the only reason it's upsetting for us "green" midlanders is coz it doesn't look like a cold spell atm and also the fact that we can get some of the coldest temperatures in Britain if we get a decent snowcover.

1 or 2 inches will do me fine, just enough to make that "crunchy" feeling underfoot...I think THEN our cold spell will begin.

[dogs32]

latest from Mr Monkey

This is a news release issued for the % risk of severe or extreme disruption during the period 5th - 15th January 2010. Major snowfall and extremely cold weather is on the way. This news release will be reviewed from the 7th with scope for an upgrade or update.

As many of you will be aware by now, the mercury is beginning to plunder and with it the risk of severe cold will increase as we move through into the weekend and more especially next week. We are now becoming increasingly confident that the main threat will be for Eastern areas of Britain with quite a high risk of significant snowfall, widespread severe frosts and at times blizzard conditions.

We have issued a moderate/high threat for many parts of the country including Central Southern/Southern England and some Central Areas for the possibility of Severe to Extreme disruption to travel networks, power and infrastructure. Right now the specifics remain unclear – but areas outlined are unlikely to change much.

We anticipate that numerous bands of snow will affect large portions of the United Kingdom – especially the North, East and South East. Temperatures will struggle to rise above freezing for many with severe to extreme frosts becoming a common feature. The concern is with temperatures so low during the day and at night, any snow that does fall will likely accumulate quickly and stick around for a long period.

Edited January 4, 2010 by dogs32

[butler_son]

latest from Mr Monkey

This is a news release issued for the % risk of severe or extreme disruption during the period 5th - 15th January 2010. Major snowfall and extremely cold weather is on the way. This news release will be reviewed from the 7th with scope for an upgrade or update.

As many of you will be aware by now, the mercury is beginning to plunder and with it the risk of severe cold will increase as we move through into the weekend and more especially next week. We are now becoming increasingly confident that the main threat will be for Eastern areas of Britain with quite a high risk of significant snowfall, widespread severe frosts and at times blizzard conditions.

We have issued a moderate/high threat for many parts of the country including Central Southern/Southern England and some Central Areas for the possibility of Severe to Extreme disruption to travel networks, power and infrastructure. Right now the specifics remain unclear – but areas outlined are unlikely to change much.

We anticipate that numerous bands of snow will affect large portions of the United Kingdom – especially the North, East and South East. Temperatures will struggle to rise above freezing for many with severe to extreme frosts becoming a common feature. The concern is with temperatures so low during the day and at night, any snow that does fall will likely accumulate quickly and stick around for a long period.

That damn mercury! I knew there was a lot of looting going around, I think we have a culprit. Maybe it's like a pirate looking for some bounty...

[Crimson_Sprite]

Hi Everyone! Hope you've all had a great New Year

I have a question, I am sure one of you can answer- hailing originally from the good ol US of A, I know to convert imperial but still am getting my head around metric (you'd think after living somewhere for 13 years you'd have it down pat by now!) but there's a few things Im not sure how to convert and one of them is rainfall to snow in metric. At 'home' I know its 1" of rain equals 10" of snowfall, but without wanting to make a maths class out of converting that- does anyone know what mm in rain would equal in snow?? I have 4mm of precip forecast for tomorrow (potentially ) so how much would 4mm of rain equal to snow? (In metric of course! )

[butler_son]

Hi Everyone! Hope you've all had a great New Year

I have a question, I am sure one of you can answer- hailing originally from the good ol US of A, I know to convert imperial but still am getting my head around metric (you'd think after living somewhere for 13 years you'd have it down pat by now!) but there's a few things Im not sure how to convert and one of them is rainfall to snow in metric. At 'home' I know its 1" of rain equals 10" of snowfall, but without wanting to make a maths class out of converting that- does anyone know what mm in rain would equal in snow?? I have 4mm of precip forecast for tomorrow (potentially ) so how much would 4mm of rain equal to snow? (In metric of course! )

I believe it's similar - 4mm is anywhere between 2 to 4cm of snow. So that'll work out at about 1 to 2 inches! :unsure:

Edited January 4, 2010 by butler_son

[cyclonic happiness]

4 cm i think?

Latest bbc forecast shows a band of snow streching the whole width of the midlands at 3pm , no doubt it will part like the red sea as it reaches here lol!!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

[we_want_snow]

I'm liking the look of the BBC at 3-6pm Tuesday (tomorrow). An organised trough stretching across the whole midlands