Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[we_want_snow]

Well if were considering how past events of gone this winter, id expect getting a dusting will be a blessing.

This isn't me being pessismistic, its the fact that EVERY single snow event forecast for here in the past month has failed.

Your not being serious are you!!!!

I hope not

[Frank]

Oh that was so funny, weathergirl came on the local radio to give her prediction of whats happening over next 3 days, she didn`t have a clue!!

She did admit though that the setup is so complicated that they were doing the "at the moment this is what is expected" forcast. She did say though its likely to change and to keep checking the usual site for up to date forcasts.

I have not heard a forcast like that for a long time, she was almost completely stuck as to what to say to start with :lol: :lol: :lol:

Edited January 4, 2010 by Frank

[snowmadchrisuk]

And the fact that every snow event forecast in the past month has failed, would be the reason for your pessimism. Just because x amount of snow forecasts haven't materialised in the way you hoped doesn't mean that the next one will continue in the same fashion.

Anyway, looking at the latest FAX charts and it would seem to favour more southern regions of England, so the GFS is sort of alone in the idea tha the precip wrap around and affect the Midlands during the early hours of Wednesday.

Yes but the UKMO precipitation charts have gone exactly the way GFS has gone , and so have the warnings and bbc radio Leicester's sara blizzard mentioned 2 areas of Snow with the second area being much heavier , you can watch her on East midlands today at 6.30 .

[smethwickgg102]

Can't quite make up my mind what's going to happen, one minute I'm to far south then to far west then with the earlier Meto warnings to far North,South,East & West and now the beebs graphics show me to far north for the pivot on Wednesday.

Keeping my fingers crossed that they can't all be right ........ can they?

:lol:

[Frank]

Can't quite make up my mind what's going to happen, one minute I'm to far south then to far west then with the earlier Meto warnings to far North,South,East & West and now the beebs graphics show me to far north for the pivot on Wednesday.

Keeping my fingers crossed that they can't all be right ........ can they?

Well if the experts can`t decide what hope is there for us lot!

As people have said keep an open mind as there may well be the occasional surprise in store, this is Britain, anythings possible!

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like we can finally expect some decent ish snow tomorrow and lets put it this way-Its going to go no where for ages!

[Nick L]

My temperature is dropping rapidly. My little weather station is saying -4.6c and my Davis Current Vantage Pro is saying -3.8c

Either way, very cold and it's not even 6pm. Surely marginality won't be a problem tomorrow morning?!

[Frank]

Looks like we can finally expect some decent ish snow tomorrow and lets put it this way-Its going to go no where for ages!

Seems very likley the case, it`s going to cause some fun and games in many many places ... let the fun begin

[snowmadchrisuk]

Somne showers seem to be forming through the cheshire gap right now , might be somethign to keep an eye on for the next few hours.

[i love snow]

Does this mean me and nick and co and to far north for Wednesday then?? Still think since it's only popped up today it's subject to change! So I'm hoping! That's all I do! Is hope :-)

[we_want_snow]

-4C here, never really felt it this consistanly cold before

[Costa Del Fal]

WOW i have just seen the charts and what a turn around!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Does this mean me and nick and co and to far north for Wednesday then?? Still think since it's only popped up today it's subject to change! So I'm hoping! That's all I do! Is hope :-)

You wouldn't avoid Showers blowing in land from the North East even if you do miss the Northern Extent of the main band on Wednesday.

[Nick L]

Does this mean me and nick and co and to far north for Wednesday then?? Still think since it's only popped up today it's subject to change! So I'm hoping! That's all I do! Is hope :-)

At the moment we look to miss the best of the action, but we should get something noticable at the very least, and this has only popped up today really, so it can and will almost certainly change. All it needs is a shift of 30-50 miles north west and it's game on really.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

As I was saying earlier, with regards to the 12z GFS (or the GFS in general) was too watch out for the ppn ensembles.

It does seem that the more East you go, the more the Op run is higher than most members. In fact, taking Cambs as an example, the Op run is a clear outlier for tomorrow.

However, some of the more Western areas of our region, there is a better agreement (although the op run is till the most optimistic for ppn amounts).

Take a look here, and click on your region in the first box, and precipitation in the second:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

Now, this doesn't mean the Op run is wrong (or indeed, correct).

There are two examples in my mind when looking at the Op run (what is shown on the chart viewer), which have happened over the last 10 days (Derbyshire) within the 24 hour prior to the event (in fact, I think it was 12 hours).

1. -5oC and ppn forecast (snow) - Actual result was rain.

2. <-5oC and ppn forecast (snow) - Actual result was cold and dry

Point 1 I would say is the least likely failure on this one, with point 2 being the most likely failure. However, this is if it fails.

At an educated guess, I would say that most will see some snowfall over the next 24 hours. Probability of quantity is low, but expect (if the 12z is correct) to be similar in the West of the region to the 12z, and whilst likely to be higher amounts in the East, much less than forecast.

Either way, it still remains positive enough for over here.

Edit - An now just to add, watching the BBC 18.00 weather forecast. The morning PPN looking to effect the Northern Parts of the Midlands in the early morning, and the Southern half late morning. The PPN in the afternoon and Evening now looks like effecting the southern, western and central Midlands.

So based on that forecast, best areas looks like being West Midlands, Worcs, Gloucs, Shrops, Warks (southern and western) and perhaps southern staffs.

How things change, as I though the evening band was coming from the North.

Edited January 4, 2010 by Shiny_Bottom_1

[I remember Atlantic 252]

my max temp (so far) today -1.0C, so i'll have an ice day if cloud doesnt move down from the north, temp now -2.7C, still got sat nights snow, a sprinkling but still snow,

tomorrow seems to have upgraded a bit esp for evening? although I seem a bit north

[Bottesford]

Jeez I hope it does snow here - cycling on this ice is just impossible! Especially in the dark evenings - feel glad to make it home uninjured!

Snow should give some traction - and something more fun than potential broken bones.

[i love snow]

Yeah itlooks that way at the min. But best thing to do is keep on the radar when it's happening!

[Nick L]

Just watched the 6pm forecast with Dan Corbett. Very promising. The area of snow coming down from the north should pretty much stall over the central Midlands tomorrow, not really moving much. It will then push south over the southern half of the Midlands and give some significant snowfall as it intensifies giving as much as "20-25cm" in places.

[Costa Del Fal]

Just watched the 6pm forecast with Dan Corbett. Very promising. The area of snow coming down from the north should pretty much stall over the central Midlands tomorrow, not really moving much. It will then push south over the southern half of the Midlands and give some significant snowfall as it intensifies giving as much as "20-25cm" in places.

Some worried posters from the SE i bet now. :lol:

[Frank]

Just watched the 6pm forecast with Dan Corbett. Very promising. The area of snow coming down from the north should pretty much stall over the central Midlands tomorrow, not really moving much. It will then push south over the southern half of the Midlands and give some significant snowfall as it intensifies giving as much as "20-25cm" in places.

Would this by any chance include Northampton area ?

[Costa Del Fal]

Even the end of the NMM Model is ready to give us a snow fest. :lol:

[Nick L]

Would this by any chance include Northampton area ?

Very much so.

[Frank]

Very much so.

Thanks for the very prompt reply Nick!

So it`s very much game on then ! :lol:

[we_want_snow]

How much, by wednesday night are we looking for

shropshire

stafford

birmingham area