Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[cyclonic happiness]

We really can't be sure at this stage, I'm in the same place as you practically so i'm just as eager to know.

But as it stands atm we may be almost in the best place for snow, but as I said, it's a case of watching the radar and not being too dissapointed if it isn't as good as you want (or maybe, just maybe...beyond your wildest dreams!)

wow hope this works out last weeks 'event' gave us nothing better then half hour of wet snow..but what you reckon the chances are for a good covering of snow?

all in all, the chances of snow falling from the sky instead of rain are alot better, the upper air is colder this time and there shouldn't be a warm sector involved for our region.

and the air following is colder too, so any snow that falls will at least stick.

I think the worst thing that happens is when you get a couple of inches of snow, only to hear the dreaded "drip drip" as soon as it's fallen.

It wouldn't be the case this time, the daytime temp prolly won't get above freezing all this week.

[NorthantsSnow]

Well the ECM has the snow risk further N from this low than the BBC forecasts suggest. I do hope it's right.

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/100104_1200_42.png

Excellent chart for the Midlands as a whole and indeed very similar to the GFS at the same timeframe.

[weather_it_will]

It me smile when the BBC said SLEET for the SE corner of England, So places like london and Kent, could just get a lot of sleet and not much snow for a change.

Midlands look like one of the best places to be for snow in next couple of days.

[Nick L]

You could be right on the edge of the heavy stuff Nick, a trip to Birmingham might be in order for you !

Unfortunately a little thing called school might prevent that!

[stevomatt]

does this mine downgrade for northants

wot do u guys think we will get 2morrow then on wed

[I remember Atlantic 252]

You could be right on the edge of the heavy stuff Nick, a trip to Birmingham might be in order for you !

surely there is a chance it could be further N, that ecm precip chart looks good everywhere

[A.J]

Wow! The bias has really stepped up a notch concerning snowfall and people living in EA and the south east. You can really sense the tension they feel and the 'No, it's my snow, and no one else is having it' vibe.

I really do hope that the Midlands gets a right dumping, and people take plenty of pictures of it, just to rub it in their face!

I hope so too...However, just a note of caution to temper the almost obscenely x-rated ramping going on in here....I've a feeling that there will be lots of moaning going on in this thread come wednesday morning, as some favourable areas could well let significant accs of snow, others a lot less..Me? I'm keeping my feet on the ground, expecting perhaps sleety snow at first with a light covering come wednesday morning.....I know the synoptics aren't the same, but remember this time last week....stalled out front over the midlands, promised a lot of snow, and what happened?....not a lot!

[andy_leics22]

Is it me or do the Met Office and BBC hate putting snow warnings out for the Midlands?

ECM and GFS agree that tomorrow and Wednesday should see a fair bit of snow for the Midlands yet the Met Office and BBC continue to bang on about the South East and Eastern areas

[Nick L]

And a little thing called snow may prevent you from going to school.

I like it

[Rommy]

TWO are now forecasting heavy snowfall for coventry on tuesday/wednesday...hope they are bloody right!!!!

[stevomatt]

i meant mean not mine lol....

regarding northants bbc national forecast didnt look for us tho.... will it start 2morrow morning then ?

thanks in advance

[cyclonic happiness]

Look at this what John Kettley said, let's hope he eats his words and they stick to the roof of his mouth :lol:

Weatherman John Kettley predicted the current freeze would turn out to be the longest spell of severely cold weather since 1987.

"It's not going to be the coldest ever because if you go back to 1963, I mean this sort of wintry weather went on for about 11 weeks," he added.

"That was a proper severe winter and we're not going to get the like of that one again, whether you're calling it global warming, climate change, or whatever

[Nick L]

Look at this what John Kettley said, let's hope he eats his words and they stick to the roof of his mouth :lol:

Weatherman John Kettley predicted the current freeze would turn out to be the longest spell of severely cold weather since 1987.

"It's not going to be the coldest ever because if you go back to 1963, I mean this sort of wintry weather went on for about 11 weeks," he added.

"That was a proper severe winter and we're not going to get the like of that one again, whether you're calling it global warming, climate change, or whatever

That last comment is quite a disappointing comment from someone like John Kettley. We will get a 1963-style winter at some point. Even if global warming does happen. It may go from a 1-in-100 year event to a 1-in-200, but nobody can ever say it is impossible.

[NorthantsSnow]

i meant mean not mine lol....

regarding northants bbc national forecast didnt look for us tho.... will it start 2morrow morning then ?

thanks in advance

Basically the BBC forecasts are siding very much with the NAE model which does not support the more extensive area of snow we see on the GFS, ECM and UKMO but instead a smaller more concentrated band over central southern England that actually heads west overnight.

Given the NAE model is run at a higher resolution it is being taken more seriously than the others.

If it happened like that model is suggesting then we would probably "escape" the worst of the snow here, with the sweet spot being somewhere to our SW. If the GFS/ECM/UKMO verified then we could well become the sweet spot!

[andy_leics22]

Basically the BBC forecasts are siding very much with the NAE model which does not support the more extensive area of snow we see on the GFS, ECM and UKMO but instead a smaller more concentrated band over central southern England that actually heads west overnight.

Given the NAE model is run at a higher resolution it is being taken more seriously than the others.

If it happened like that model is suggesting then we would probably "escape" the worst of the snow here, with the sweet spot being somewhere to our SW. If the GFS/ECM/UKMO verified then we could well become the sweet spot!

IMO Northants is going to get pasted. I think Northants will be slap bang in the thick of it. The only slight worry I have in Leicester is that we may be a bit far North for the main band tomorrow night but the GFS and ECM suggest we will be just fine so I hope they are correct.

[cyclonic happiness]

That last comment is quite a disappointing comment from someone like John Kettley. We will get a 1963-style winter at some point. Even if global warming does happen. It may go from a 1-in-100 year event to a 1-in-200, but nobody can ever say it is impossible.

I mean, who's to say that the 1963 event wasn't at the end of the 100 year period and this winter isn't at the beginning of the next?

Or maybe, the 70's theories of "global cooling" were correct and we have just muddied the water with too much information and spin?

what a coup that would be..... :lol:

Is this anoprop to the SE of brum or fog? anyone confirm?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

[NorthantsSnow]

IMO Northants is going to get pasted. I think Northants will be slap bang in the thick of it. The only slight worry I have in Leicester is that we may be a bit far North for the main band tomorrow night but the GFS and ECM suggest we will be just fine so I hope they are correct.

I hope you're right mate. I was feeling confident earlier before the BBC threw a spanner in the works with their forecast.

It still looks good for Leicestershire as well. If not from the main band, heavy snow showers tucking in behind.

[weather_it_will]

Some snow reports in NE Manchester area now, with the showers drifting in from the Irish Sea.

[Supercell]

So fairly persistent light snow initially with things cranking up a notch in to the afternoon, evening and early hours of Wednesday. Bring it on. Let's have some thundersnow for good measure too

[snowmadchrisuk]

Is it me or do the Met Office and BBC hate putting snow warnings out for the Midlands? :huh:

ECM and GFS agree that tomorrow and Wednesday should see a fair bit of snow for the Midlands yet the Met Office and BBC continue to bang on about the South East and Eastern areas

Andy you have to smile at Sara Blizzards latest forecast here http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/341 Leicester is in for the heaviest falls in the Midlands according to her .. the graphics are great to.

[Bolton67]

I was also very confident before the 6:30 BBC forecast, but it showed Northants Under the heavy snow band for a short time, then it moves SW.

As for the Local forecast , she was very tight lipped.

gone from to

[stevomatt]

I was also very confident before the 6:30 BBC forecast, but it showed Northants Under the heavy snow band for a short time, then it moves SW.

As for the Local forecast , she was very tight lipped.

gone from to

looks like dusting for us bloody bbc

[Costa Del Fal]

Just looking at the forecast, the snow tomorrow goes almost no where over us tomorrow. Could get interesting.

[Albion Snowman]

Looks good for the Birmingham area tomorrow with the snow stalling here for a time tomorrow. Central Southern England looks to get a pasting later on tomorrow as well.

All to play for folks!

[Bolton67]

looks like dusting for us bloody bbc

I think we will get more than a Dusting. further west you are in the county the better.