Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Certainly is a good GFS 18z run for all of us, however i would urge a little caution as the NAE run (which is used my the met office and BBC) keeps the risk further south. Hopefully it does come further north because you lot deserve a bit of snow!!

Still gives you around 5cm though!!

How oftern are the NAE runs updated though cause its only evolved tonight as a whole for the mids so what is picked up now by the latest charts prob wasnt picked up earlier around dinner time ! If that makes sense! ?????

[Hathers]

Thank you. I'm driving to Blackburn tomorrow and I'm dreading it!!

[alexwwfc]

http://cds049.lo1.hwcdn.net/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100104/18/42/uksnowdepth.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0bbcbd2d40fec49240aec4c2916bcf9d40aec4ec&dopsig=33da49c357aa07bfc50f49dddb0cc404

[A.J]

Hey guys I'm on my iPhone so I can't see peoples locations. Could somebody please tell me looking at the current charts which areas of the west midlands are likely to be worst hit tomorrow? Thank you

Everyone's lost their location from their public profile....A stripped down NW tonight due to server switch to ensure NW doesnt crash and burn for an extended period....might be worth posters popping their locations down at the end of their post!...

Anyhoos back on topic, a more organised area of snow is developing over north wales/the Wirral and manchester metropolis drifting slowly SE, could be an interesting night for areas to the north of Birmingham...A starter before the main course? <_<

location: Penkridge, Staffs

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Rugby, Warks. I imagine I have, for one reason or another, lost my location due to the current forum issues (it happened before). The list of people viewing the thread also disappears. It's most likely to reduce the pressure on the servers.

Wel looking at the ;ates charts then your right in the fireing line , the bbc charts were the same as they was at half 6 , so they havent taken the gfs into account yet . Remember this time last night we werent lookin at anythin really notable . now we'r on the border to an absolute deluge.

[Hathers]

Exciting times ahead for all of us.

Location shropshire

[Luke3000]

What time is it expected to get to Birmingham?

[Snowedunder]

aye theres a bit of snowy snizzle outside. Hopefully the precip won't be too far west tomorrow - and yet the other day i was worried about it being too far east!

Matt, Derby.

[Supercell]

Wel looking at the ;ates charts then your right in the fireing line , the bbc charts were the same as they was at half 6 , so they havent taken the gfs into account yet . Remember this time last night we werent lookin at anythin really notable . now we'r on the border to an absolute deluge.

Could be. It's all really up in the air. I think, to avoid disappointment with the ever-changing runs (even at close range), we just need to focus on the nowcasts. Good luck all. Hope somewhere in the midlands at least lands a good dumping !

[Mark Bayley]

How oftern are the NAE runs updated though cause its only evolved tonight as a whole for the mids so what is picked up now by the latest charts prob wasnt picked up earlier around dinner time ! If that makes sense! ?????

That's the very latest NAE run. Its updated four times a day (0z,6z,12z and 18z) The chart i just gave you was the accumulative precipitation by Wednesday (i think) from the 18z. Of course models will chop and change in a situation like this so its case of watching the radar. It does show around 5cm across much of the west mids with up to 10cm possible in places. The heaviest precipitation does remain further South compared the 18z GFS. Your definitely going to see some snow, but how much is uncertain. As i said its a case of watching the radar

Link

http://www.weatheron...LL=gfs&VAR=prec

The BBC forecasts should reflect what this model is showing overnight

Edited January 4, 2010 by mark bayley

[snowhope]

holy crap, if only the GFS precipitation was right, I would be getting torrential snow tomorrow night!!!

[A.J]

Just popped in the SE Thread for a quick read and wind up post.....Ooh, they're not a happy bunch tonight!

[echobase]

Just popped in the SE Thread for a quick read and wind up post.....Ooh, they're not a happy bunch tonight!

What an amazing idea and you know, ... I feel better for it !

Mark, Melton, Leics.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

That's the very latest NAE run. Its updated four times a day (0z,6z,12z and 18z) The chart i just gave you was the accumulative precipitation by Wednesday (i think) from the 18z. Of course models will chop and change in a situation like this so its case of watching the radar. It does show around 5cm across much of the west mids with up to 10cm possible in places. The heaviest precipitation does remain further South compared the 18z GFS. Your definitely going to see some snow, but how much is uncertain. As i said its a case of watching the radar

Link

http://www.weatheron...LL=gfs&VAR=prec

Thanks for the . iv ran the charts right through to 27hrs with the ppn forecast and correct me if im wrong but that looked it situated right over the mids for the entire time . Have a look when it gets to us byt running each chart and im sure (although i didnt zoom in) we looked a direct hit . May be wrong tho

[cold stoke]

Just popped in the SE Thread for a quick read and wind up post.....Ooh, they're not a happy bunch tonight!

is stoke in for alot of snow hope so

[Bottesford]

Just popped in the SE Thread for a quick read and wind up post.....Ooh, they're not a happy bunch tonight!

Now play nice - it ain't over till the fat lady sings!

[weather_it_will]

The latest charts can still change, so the exact locations for snow depths are not yet cast in stone.

Things may look different again tomorrow morning/afternoon.

Nowcasting generally works better than looking at a chart that could be 50 miles out.

Hopefully we will all get lots of snow in all of the Midlands area.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

That's the very latest NAE run. Its updated four times a day (0z,6z,12z and 18z) The chart i just gave you was the accumulative precipitation by Wednesday (i think) from the 18z. Of course models will chop and change in a situation like this so its case of watching the radar. It does show around 5cm across much of the west mids with up to 10cm possible in places. The heaviest precipitation does remain further South compared the 18z GFS. Your definitely going to see some snow, but how much is uncertain. As i said its a case of watching the radar

Link

http://www.weatheron...LL=gfs&VAR=prec

Thanks for link . iv ran the ppn charts and i have to admit it still looks a direct for the mids , i never zoomed in , but i no where the mids is and to me it looked awsome. Im a tad confused now , maybe you see somethin i dont , check it out peeps i may be worng

Posted twice sorry didnt realise

Edited January 4, 2010 by shaun wilmer

[echobase]

Now play nice - it ain't over till the fat lady sings!

Rain today radar looks good for you soon, unless its an annablob thingy!!

Are you actually in notts or bottesford ??

Mark, Melton, Leics.

Edited January 4, 2010 by ECHOBASE1975MK6

[Mark Bayley]

Thanks for the . iv ran the charts right through to 27hrs with the ppn forecast and correct me if im wrong but that looked it situated right over the mids for the entire time . Have a look when it gets to us byt running each chart and im sure (although i didnt zoom in) we looked a direct hit . May be wrong tho

Did you click on the NAE model? As the link i gave you was straight onto the GFS charts. Heres the link for the NAE

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=18&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

You can use the side bar to change the charts, your currently on the accumulative precipitation. You can change it to precipitation rain and snow to see were the band tracks It looks good which ever model you look at

[A.J]

Now play nice - it ain't over till the fat lady sings!

hang on...whats that I hear...."do-reh-me-so...." Nick, she's tuning up....lol

Ok, I'll behave myself!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Did you click on the NAE model? As the link i gave you was straight onto the GFS charts. Heres the link for the NAE

http://www.weatheron...=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

You can use the side bar to change the charts, your currently on the accumulative precipitation. You can change it to precipitation rain and snow to see were the band tracks It looks good which ever model you look at

Nice one

[Bottesford]

Rain today radar looks good for you soon, unless its an annablob thingy!!

Are you actually in notts or bottesford ??

Mark, Melton, Leics.

I'm in Notts city centre - and yes looking good for us! But not counting my chickens just yet...

[Mark Bayley]

Nice one

Now watch break up and go down over wales and east anglia missing me in the north east mids and you in the West Mids

[cyclonic happiness]

Now watch break up and go down over wales and east anglia missing me in the north east mids and you in the West Mids

" SNOW SHEILD ARMED AND READY sir SIR!!"