Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

The BBC forecast i watch earlier this afternoon said rain for the all midlands expect higher ground where they should expect snow. What's going on? Its been freezing or below here all day. How cold does it need to be for it to snow for gods sake.

Well, it doesn't snow, it's going to be freezing rain...just as deadly for drivers.

[NorthantsSnow]

JUST FOR FUN--

But if you tot up the precipitation rate across Tues/Weds based on the GFS, the snowfall equivalent would work out to just under 40CM for Northants-

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=3;type=free;ct=21308~Northampton;sess=#forecast

[Just Before Dawn]

I would like it if it was budged 50 miles or so north west, bit too iffy for my liking at the moment! Southern and eastern parts of our region should get a fair bit though.

Oh and I finally got my first ice day of the winter with a maximum of -1.1c.

I feel your pain, Nick, so here's a post I put on the Yorks and Lincs thread earlier today.

The Met's Mountain Forecast for the Peak District For Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday

Weather: - Cloudy with persistent snow though much of the morning. The snow becoming intermittent during the afternoon with a few brighter intervals. Severe wind chill above 300 metres.

Visibility: - Poor or very poor in snow with whiteout conditions for a time above 300 metres, becoming occasionally moderate in the afternoon.

Wednesday: - Bright but very cold and frosty with snow showers. Moderate risk of wind chill with a fresh northerly wind. Visibility good becoming very poor in snow.

Thursday: - Rather cloudy with snow showers and the possibility of more persistent snow. Temperatures remaining below freezing at all levels with a high risk of wind chill in a fresh northerly wind. Visibility good becoming very poor in snow.

At the point I posted this, Derbyshire had no Met Office Warnings - seems odd to me that these conditions could occur in the Peak District (which extends into Staffordshire) but not Cannock Chase, which is also pretty exposed. They've subsequently issued one for Derbyshire and it wouldn't surprise me to see one for Staffordshire in due course.

Think Positive thoughts!

[snow hunter]

JUST FOR FUN--

But if you tot up the precipitation rate across Tues/Weds based on the GFS, the snowfall equivalent would work out to just under 40CM for Northants-

http://www.netweathe...;sess=#forecast

lol torrential snow

[Nick L]

I feel your pain, Nick, so here's a post I put on the Yorks and Lincs thread earlier today.

At the point I posted this, Derbyshire had no Met Office Warnings - seems odd to me that these conditions could occur in the Peak District (which extends into Staffordshire) but not Cannock Chase, which is also pretty exposed. They've subsequently issued one for Derbyshire and it wouldn't surprise me to see one for Staffordshire in due course.

Think Positive thoughts!

Thanks for that!

Very odd indeed. It's not as if I am a million miles away from the Peak District and Derbyshire, and as you say some parts of Cannock Chase are pretty exposed, topping 800 feet in places.

[NorthantsSnow]

The BBC forecast i watch earlier this afternoon said rain for the all midlands expect higher ground where they should expect snow. What's going on? Its been freezing or below here all day. How cold does it need to be for it to snow for gods sake.

77-85% chance of it falling as snow according to Netweather. Looking at all the various components like dewpoints, ground temps, upper temps, etc, everything looks favourable for snow falling even at lower levels from where I'm sitting.

I think perhaps the BBC have gone into overly cautious mode after the fiasco last week with that front pushing up from the south that in the end was mostly a rain event at lower levels, at least for our region anyway. But it was a LOT more marginal than this and they did call it correctly in the end.

[dogs32]

Dan Corbett just said 20-30cm of snow as it wraps around

Edited January 4, 2010 by dogs32

[snowless]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

everybody is included now !!!!

[Nick L]

http://www.metoffice...ings.html?day=2

everybody is included now !!!!

Only for icy roads, but it's a start!

[we_want_snow]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=2;type=free;ct=25925~Shrewsbury;sess=#forecast

Not looking brilliant for me.

What do ya think???

[NorthantsSnow]

Only for icy roads, but it's a start!

But the description refers to "outbreaks of snow" and "further accumulations." Bizarre wording since there haven't been any as of yet.

Sloppy and unhelpful really.

Edited January 4, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[Nick L]

But the description refers to "outbreaks of snow" and "further accumulations." Bizarre wording since there haven't been any as of yet.

Sloppy and unhelpful really.

I think it indicates that it will snow at some point in the next 24 hours, but the accumulations aren't worth a warning. As they usually issue warnings for 2-5cm, it is implying that there will be less than 2cm, just a dusting really.

[chapmanraven]

Managed to get down to -6.6c here on the edge of Hinckley last night, current temp is -2.4c

I see that met office have the whole of midlands under an advisory, shame its just for icy roads. I think it should be for snow, those bands seem to go straight over us. Well its fingers crossed again.

[loopydreamer]

Dan Corbett just said 20-30cm of snow as it wraps around

really?

im not far above you

who's dan corbett?

[A.J]

But the description refers to "further accumulations." Bizarre wording since there haven't been any as of yet.

Sloppy and unhelpful really.

knowing their warnings it probably means 'watch out, further accumulations of widespread icy roads...10 roads so far are icy, at least 20 by morning'

[azores92]

really?

im not far above you

who's dan corbett?

a humurous BBC weatherman

[loopydreamer]

I think it indicates that it will snow at some point in the next 24 hours, but the accumulations aren't worth a warning. As they usually issue warnings for 2-5cm, it is implying that there will be less than 2cm, just a dusting really.

if we get snow i cant see it being just a dusting. okay the east will get more but i would expect atleast 2-5cm's. in this cold it will lay quickly

[Nick L]

if we get snow i cant see it being just a dusting. okay the east will get more but i would expect atleast 2-5cm's. in this cold it will lay quickly

I doubt we will get more than 2cm. Tonight's snow will be light and patchy. It's over Scotland now and as you can see if you look at the Met Office radar, it isn't anything to write home about. By the time it gets here it will probably be in an even worse state.

I am on about tonight's/tomorrow morning's event weather09, Wednesday's event is a totally different matter, that will indeed bring a pasting!

Edited January 4, 2010 by nick2702

[NorthantsSnow]

I think it indicates that it will snow at some point in the next 24 hours, but the accumulations aren't worth a warning. As they usually issue warnings for 2-5cm, it is implying that there will be less than 2cm, just a dusting really.

The problem is the warnings are too inconsistent. I hope they tidy them up tomorrow.

[we_want_snow]

What would you expect for the West Midlands, and in particular, me?

What's Wednesday's event, as I dont seem to be forecast owt?

[loopydreamer]

I doubt we will get more than 2cm. Tonight's snow will be light and patchy. It's over Scotland now and as you can see if you look at the Met Office radar, it isn't anything to write home about. By the time it gets here it will probably be in an even worse state.

I am on about tonight's/tomorrow morning's event weather09, Wednesday's event is a totally different matter, that will indeed bring a pasting!

sorry! i thought u were talking about tuesday/wednesday

[mildmuck]

Well well well, seems I was right! Now at least the professionals are starting to sing along with us now!

Edit: Give it time Nick, and they'll be updating the warnings to include the potential of significant snowfall, that is if the models, especially GFS and NAE are correct.

That's IF they are correct lol , still not convinced how it's going to pan out what i will say though is I've noticed the 12z runs have been the most consistent so far.

:)

[loopydreamer]

That's IF they are correct lol , still not convinced how it's going to pan out what i will say though is I've noticed the 12z runs have been the most consistent so far.

hey mild muck

just noticed u r just down the road from me!

i'll let ya know the minute i see a snow flake here good luckxx

[Essan]

Min -7.7c / Max -0.5c

First time I've recorded an ice day under clear skies and with no snow cover.

Currently -2.6c and falling

[conor123]

What would you expect for the West Midlands, and in particular, me?

What's Wednesday's event, as I dont seem to be forecast owt?

Well if were considering how past events of gone this winter, id expect getting a dusting will be a blessing.

This isn't me being pessismistic, its the fact that EVERY single snow event forecast for here in the past month has failed.

Edited January 4, 2010 by conor123