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Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

Methuselah

By Methuselah
in Spring Weather Discussion

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jukebox Newbie

jukebox

Posted
  • Location: nr Cannock Staffs
  • Location: nr Cannock Staffs
Posted

Oh and another thing. My school haven't bothered to grit any paths at all! Considering the caretakers have had all Christmas to do something it is very poor. The car park is an ice rink, would put money on someone having a nasty accident today.

You wanna get yourself upto Norton High School then mate as I was out gritting with the caretakers at 5 o clock this morning!!acute.gif Anyway on topic some could do ok if this chart verifies ???

10010518_0412.gif

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NorthantsSnow Apprentice

NorthantsSnow

Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
Posted

AMAZING 12z from the GFS. Actually shows 27 hours of continuous moderate to heavy snowfall across parts of the region including Northants. Would be looking at some widespread impressive accumulations from that.

This is my favourite frame!

http://209.197.11.138/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100104/12/48/prectypeuktopo.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0f36092b447419a3442419f395e112b84424190a&dopsig=7284a6cfb5af480977e331e89b889913

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azores92 Apprentice

azores92

Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
Posted

AMAZING 12z from the GFS. Actually shows 27 hours of continuous moderate to heavy snowfall across parts of the region including Northants. Would be looking at some widespread impressive accumulations from that.

This is my favourite frame!

http://209.197.11.138/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100104/12/48/prectypeuktopo.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0f36092b447419a3442419f395e112b84424190a&dopsig=7284a6cfb5af480977e331e89b889913

i nearly fainted when i saw the NAE forecast! sweet!

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

looks like a few members have beaten me too it, but for snow lovers, the first few frames of the 12z GFS should bring on a big smile....Some pretty heavy & persistent ppn for the midlands region lasting througout most of tomorrow...If this is indeed snow as progged with no pesky warm sectors, then this could be quite an event (according to this run, interested to see what 18z churns out later this evening)

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Shiny_Bottom_1 Explorer

Shiny_Bottom_1

Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
Posted

Just a brief warning about the GFS (not to put a downer on things).

The 06z, and previous runs, have the op run higher than most other ensembles. Not an outlier by any means, but greater amounts all the same.

However, day on day, there has been a better agreement on ppn.

The GFS also, in the range <T+24, had ppn falling for here on Saturday night just gone. It was pretty much a dry night from memory, as the ppn fizzled out.

Keep an eye on the ensembles for verification, plus also back up from the other models and TV/Internet forecasts.

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Bolton67 Enthusiast

Bolton67

Posted
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
  • Location: Bolton, Lancashire
Posted

AMAZING 12z from the GFS. Actually shows 27 hours of continuous moderate to heavy snowfall across parts of the region including Northants. Would be looking at some widespread impressive accumulations from that.

This is my favourite frame!

http://209.197.11.13...7e331e89b889913

i wonder why that is your favourite frame laugh.gifshok.gif

Am i seeing this correct ??? shok.gifshok.gifshok.gif

post-9498-12626208082913_thumb.gif

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drgl Contributor

drgl

Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
Posted

holy cow....25cm!!!on my house..lol

what a upgrade...

I cant believe the model thread JPEGS

It's in mm, ie, 2.5cm's!!

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snow hunter Newbie

snow hunter

Posted
  • Location: Rushden, Northants
  • Location: Rushden, Northants
Posted (edited)

looks good but I'm not going to get carried away yet, the BBC are still downplaying the snow somewhat for Tues and Weds.

Would be so funny though if the one place the Met O don't put an advisory out for (the mids) gets 25cm :D

Edited by snow hunter
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loopydreamer Contributor

loopydreamer

Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
Posted

yep! things r looking better for us midlanders drinks.gif

im just a little nervous that the snow may miss and go further east just as weather09 has said!

please someone reassure me that is not going to happen? unsure.gifwacko.gif

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Shiny_Bottom_1 Explorer

Shiny_Bottom_1

Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
Posted

Also, another note.

A conversion of 1mm of rain = 1cm of snow.

This depends on the density of the snow (which does vary), and I would say the above conversion is the 'optimists' conversion :p

I 'm sure I have heard in the past a ratio of 1mm of rain = 4mm of snow...again, the same rule applies of snow denisty.

Either way, its looking ok for the moment.

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azores92 Apprentice

azores92

Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
Posted

Also, another note.

A conversion of 1mm of rain = 1cm of snow.

This depends on the density of the snow (which does vary), and I would say the above conversion is the 'optimists' conversion :oops:

I 'm sure I have heard in the past a ratio of 1mm of rain = 4mm of snow...again, the same rule applies of snow denisty.

Either way, its looking ok for the moment.

sssh, we must keep ramping :p

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Just got in from school, LOL at the Met Office warnings. The only counties in the whole of the UK not to get a warning for this week at all are Staffordshire, Shropshire, Telford & Wrekin, West Midlands, Worcestershire and Warwickshire. :yahoo:

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Shiny_Bottom_1 Explorer

Shiny_Bottom_1

Posted
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
  • Location: Derby - 46m (151ft) ASL
Posted

Just got in from school, LOL at the Met Office warnings. The only counties in the whole of the UK not to get a warning for this week at all are Staffordshire, Shropshire, Telford & Wrekin, West Midlands, Worcestershire and Warwickshire. <_<

Don't worry, i've heard they will be issueing one later for heavy rain, so stop complaining :p

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azores92 Apprentice

azores92

Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
Posted

Don't worry, i've heard they will be issueing one later for heavy rain, so stop complaining <_<

lol, even the latest beeb graphics show snow for much of the day across the central midlands. where are the warnings dang nabbit!

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Don't worry, i've heard they will be issueing one later for heavy rain, so stop complaining :p

Well at least it's some bloody exciting weather for a change <_<

Looks much better for the Midlands now, although more of a SE Midlands event most of us should get something worthwhile in the next few days. In the meantime, we have another severe frost on the way...

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NorthantsSnow Apprentice

NorthantsSnow

Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
Posted

The UKMO follows the GFS' lead by releasing a much improved run as far as snow is concerned. This is a brilliant chart for the east of the region:

U42-594.GIF?04-17

So that's Wednesday morning. A slow moving band of moderate to heavy snow right over us. By lunchtime you might have expected it to move on, but instead it just sits there and continues to dump snow by the bucketload:

U48-594.GIF?04-17

In the end, it doesn't clear until the early hours of Thursday:

U60-594.GIF?04-17

Absolutely terrific stuff. With such a slow moving feature like that some substantial accumulations are very likely over a widespread area, it's just a case of where that is causing the models some problems and that's where the variation currently lies.

As things stand the UKMO is not quite as good as the GFS for the west of the region, whilst the NAE would deliver a fair bit of snow to the west and leave some of us in the east completely dry! So still a lot of uncertainty even at this range.

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rob_weiss Newbie

rob_weiss

Posted
  • Location: West Hunsbury, Northampton, East Midlands 77m ASL.
  • Location: West Hunsbury, Northampton, East Midlands 77m ASL.
Posted

The BBC forecast i watch earlier this afternoon said rain for the all midlands expect higher ground where they should expect snow. What's going on? Its been freezing or below here all day. How cold does it need to be for it to snow for gods sake. <_<

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

Nothing will miss us, I can assure you. We will get snowfall tomorrow, how much is very much uncertain. The latest model output from both the GFS and UKMO would suggest steady moderate snowfall for the Midlands with perhaps heavy snowfall during the early hours of Wednesday morning. The regions that look to see the heaviest fall at the moment, are the south east Midlands, EA and parts of southern England.

Things have only just changed drastically so that just illustrates the uncertainty at the moment. Why the Met Office haven't issued a warning for the risk of considerable snowfall I'm not sure. Their model, the GFS and NAE suggest substantial snowfall across the entire Midlands region. Though as I said, this event is far from nailed so perhaps they are waiting a little more to get the finer details for tomorrow and Wednesday.

Exciting times ahead that's for sure!

:drinks: roll out the barrel :drinks:

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted (edited)

I would like it if it was budged 50 miles or so north west, bit too iffy for my liking at the moment! Southern and eastern parts of our region should get a fair bit though.

Oh and I finally got my first ice day of the winter with a maximum of -1.1c.

Edited by nick2702
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