Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Costa Del Fal]

I note how the Met Office update for the West Midlands says spells of snow some of which may be heavy. There is no rela reference to it being light.

Drifting snow mentioned for us too.

[Crimson_Sprite]

MetO keep saying occasional sleet & snow for us?? where are they getting sleet from?

This Evening and Tonight:

Further sleet and snow showers will feed across much of the region (trails on- but then says..)

Sunday:

Most of the region will be cloudy, with perhaps just a few bright intervals, and with some occasional sleet or snow giving further accumulations in many places. Maximum temperature 1 °C.

as well as:

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

It will become largely dry, but cold on Monday. Tuesday will see cloud and some sleet or snow, then mainly dry on Wednesday, but with cold easterly winds.

yet GFS has snow showers for us.... still though, sleet???

[butler_son]

MetO keep saying occasional sleet & snow for us?? where are they getting sleet from?

This Evening and Tonight:

Further sleet and snow showers will feed across much of the region (trails on- but then says..)

Sunday:

Most of the region will be cloudy, with perhaps just a few bright intervals, and with some occasional sleet or snow giving further accumulations in many places. Maximum temperature 1 °C.

as well as:

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

It will become largely dry, but cold on Monday. Tuesday will see cloud and some sleet or snow, then mainly dry on Wednesday, but with cold easterly winds.

yet GFS has snow showers for us.... still though, sleet???

Coastal Lincolnshire, me dear!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Showers on and off all day here, another flurry just started.

Bitterly cold in the wind

[Crimson_Sprite]

Coastal Lincolnshire, me dear!

ahhhhh right.. just watched the 4pm BBC weather and they seem to think us Midlanders could see up to 15cm of snow over Sunday night! Although the meto beg to differ... I really hope we get slammed!!

[smethwickgg102]

Latest Beeb forecast video, still good for the Midlands

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/2?area=Birmingham

Edited January 9, 2010 by smethwickgg102

[Crimson_Sprite]

GFS and NAE out, and I would still say that there is nothing worth noting concerning snowfall in the very near future. NAE shows that the snow will become more prominent tomorrow evening and then perhaps intensify as we head into the early hours of Monday, before clearing during Monday. Not to get too focused on Wednesday at the moment as it is still some time away, but the GFS would suggest a stalled front over Wales, which would mean heavy snowfal over this region and perhaps edging into the western half of the west Midlands. But as I say, too early to talk specifics for Wednesday.

For now, I'd say we're looking at some persistent moderate to sometimes heavy snow, particuarly during the early part of Monday. Widespread snowfalls of 1-2" look possible, with 4"+ over high ground, so basically where the Met Office have a 'Be Prepared' warning.

All in all, nothing special, but at least more snow is on its way, and could give a couple more inches to the already lying snow on the ground.

well my happy reply above is now short lived for 15cm lol!!! although even I knew that was some serious fantasy island there

[kev238]

Crimson Sprite-- why do you think that the met office disagree with the BBC? The Met Office have an orange warning for 5-15 cm widely and 20-30cm locally; Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, Derby and Derbyshire are the highlighted areas in the E Midlands. That is a large variation in potential snowfall but the Met Office clearly think so.

Those text forecast cover all the way down to near Northampton so dont read too much into them. If the Met Office have an orange warning covering our area they are quite confident of some disruption.

[Costa Del Fal]

Nice to see the NAE 12Z intensifies the precip for us tomorrow evening and Monday.

[butler_son]

Crimson Sprite-- why do you think that the met office disagree with the BBC? The Met Office have an orange warning for 5-15 cm widely and 20-30cm locally; Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, Derby and Derbyshire are the highlighted areas in the E Midlands. That is a large variation in potential snowfall but the Met Office clearly think so.

Those text forecast cover all the way down to near Northampton so dont read too much into them. If the Met Office have an orange warning covering our area they are quite confident of some disruption.

Picking up on this, that same warning text will be used for Yorkshire, which contains the Pennines. The 20-30cm totals are almost certainly reference to them and The Peak District. Of course, that doesn't discount that Nottingham could be in for a fair bit of snow! Bring it on!

[Crimson_Sprite]

Crimson Sprite-- why do you think that the met office disagree with the BBC? The Met Office have an orange warning for 5-15 cm widely and 20-30cm locally; Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, Derby and Derbyshire are the highlighted areas in the E Midlands. That is a large variation in potential snowfall but the Met Office clearly think so.

Those text forecast cover all the way down to near Northampton so dont read too much into them. If the Met Office have an orange warning covering our area they are quite confident of some disruption.

oh right, I guess so, that makes sense- its just that the text was so vastly unenthusiastic about any snow, saying that it was more of a few passing showers event, as oppossed to any real accumalation.. although I did see the orange warning, and the BBC 4pm forcast seemed quite promising! hence my bafflement over the rather blase text forcast

[Crimson_Sprite]

BBC Weather's forecasters are broadcast meteorologists hired by the Met Office. The forecasts you see on BBC Weather come from the Met Office after they are briefed on the latest models runs.

Anyway, those significant snow totals of 15-20cm are for high ground across the Pennines and parts of high ground over Wales. Widely we can expect 1-2" falls, perhaps more locally. These are realistic estimates given that the snow will not be heavy throughout the period in question but rather moderate with occasional heavier bursts.

Hence why I cant wait till my house sells and I can move to the Peak District!

[kev238]

One thing I will mention is that there is no reference to high ground in that warning-- usually there would be. Now, I dont for a moment think that we will get 20-30 cm here in Nottingham city but I do think think we are well placed in this whole event. And, the fact we are in an orange zone a day before the event, indicates the Met Office think this could be quite a disruptive event. The proof will be when we see the radar tomorrow afternoon anyhow!

[butler_son]

One thing I will mention is that there is no reference to high ground in that warning-- usually there would be. Now, I dont for a moment think that we will get 20-30 cm here in Nottingham city but I do think think we are well placed in this whole event. And, the fact we are in an orange zone a day before the event, indicates the Met Office think this could be quite a disruptive event. The proof will be when we see the radar tomorrow afternoon anyhow!

Just think of my fellow students (most of whom are moaning, as it happens) that have to try and come back to uni tomorrow in what's looking like some interesting conditions. And then the students trying to get to exams on Monday morning is going to be interesting to say the least! At least my first exam isn't until Friday...

As you say, it'll be all stations radar tomorrow!

[Crimson_Sprite]

my radar keeps saying Ive got snow falling and there isnt any falling at all! stupid-lying-radar

[butler_son]

Perhaps you would like to take another read at the warnings. <_<

The Monday warning indeed references high ground, but for Sunday... *Adopts MetOffice Voice*

There is a high risk of severe weather affecting parts of northern England, the Midlands and eastern Wales. Outbreaks of snow developing on Sunday will become heavier and more persistent during late afternoon or evening and persistent through the night and into Monday morning. 5 to 15cm of fresh level snow is expected widely with 20-30cm locally. Drifting in the very strong winds will cause even greater accumulations in places. Disruption to transport networks and icing on power lines is possible.

[Strider]

Crimson bear in mind that forecast is for the whole of the East Midlands not *just* Nottingham, any Sleet showers will be on the coast there is no way you could have sleet in these conditions!!

[cyclonic happiness]

Just been a walk along the canal near us and it's frozen all the way along with an inch of snow on the top, but worryingly, there is also a set of footprints adult ones at that, all along the middle of it for about a mile!!!

Some people are athick as pig s**t,

[kev238]

Exactly- no mention of high ground for the Sunday warning. I dont expect 30 cm of snow here in Nottingham but 5-15 cm seems likely.

[Potent Gust]

Just been a walk along the canal near us and it's frozen all the way along with an inch of snow on the top, but worryingly, there is also a set of footprints adult ones at that, all along the middle of it for about a mile!!!

Some people are athick as pig s**t,

Yes had the same in Tamworth! Adults footprints on the canal! You couldn't make it up!

[drgl]

I'm off out to cannock for a retirement party in a bit, spent the day in Shrewsbury & got some pics of the frozen Severn on my phone(will upload tomorrow as they are on my laptop). Also had some snow flurries in the toen centre(about 10.30am) bitterly cold, car said minus 1 all day & minus 3 a moment ago on the way home. Great cold spell, a nice dumping of snow some time in the next few days would be the cherry on the cake!!!

[kev238]

Acutally there is a completely separate warning for the areas that are highlighted in orange.

[A.J]

I've noticed on the beeb website regarding the public transport/roads situation that Gordon Brown has told us not to worry, and despite the chronic shortage of salt, that it get to where its needed most.....Really Mr Brown? and where will this be exactly?...on top of your fish'n'chips?.....numpty!

[cyclonic happiness]

I've noticed on the beeb website regarding the public transport/roads situation that Gordon Brown has told us not to worry, and despite the chronic shortage of salt, that it get to where its needed most.....Really Mr Brown? and where will this be exactly?...on top of your fish'n'chips?.....numpty!

They could always start using urine instead of salt...they are used to taking the pi*s out of us anyway??

[A.J]

They could always start using urine instead of salt...they are used to taking the pi*s out of us anyway?? B)

Now that wouldnt surprise me...lol....and an additional premium on our council tax for the privelege...is his own accent "citizens of our nation, here's 'little wee' tax for you"... B)