Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 18:

[Blizzardo]

The ECM is generally considered the better model, with a far lower margin of error i.e. if it is wrong, it isn't often wrong by a long way. In contrast, the GFS is incredibly inconsistent, though occasionally it can pick out a pattern that none of the other models see. The UKMO is good up to 120 hours, but there is a serious problem with the +144 charts. It doesn't look like 10C and rain anytime soon though, with southerlies merely making things colder due to the track over very cold land. This is the point when the block wins through: http://charts.netwea.../ecm500.192.png

And it sets up a very nice easterly flow with a gigantic fetch all the way to central Asia:

http://charts.netwea.../ecm500.240.png

Still a lot of wintry weather left in this pattern, given the strength of the block. A bit of a battleground this week, with southerly winds, though precipitation amounts are hard to call at the moment. However, temperatures are unlikely to get higher than what we've seen today, as the wind looks set to move towards a southerly, with less coastal modification and more helpful land modification.

LS

I'd agree that there looks to be good possibilities for drawing in more cold from the east later in the ECM and even on the GFS I wouldnt be surprised to see it change over the next day or so to show one of its lows drop further south east and start pulling in more cold. To me it looks just as likely as a breakdown to mild.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Blizzardo

[Norrance]

The ECM is generally considered the better model, with a far lower margin of error i.e. if it is wrong, it isn't often wrong by a long way. In contrast, the GFS is incredibly inconsistent, though occasionally it can pick out a pattern that none of the other models see. The UKMO is good up to 120 hours, but there is a serious problem with the +144 charts. It doesn't look like 10C and rain anytime soon though, with southerlies merely making things colder due to the track over very cold land. This is the point when the block wins through: http://charts.netweather.tv/ecmimages/20100110/00/ecm500.192.png

And it sets up a very nice easterly flow with a gigantic fetch all the way to central Asia:

http://charts.netweather.tv/ecmimages/20100110/00/ecm500.240.png

Still a lot of wintry weather left in this pattern, given the strength of the block. A bit of a battleground this week, with southerly winds, though precipitation amounts are hard to call at the moment. However, temperatures are unlikely to get higher than what we've seen today, as the wind looks set to move towards a southerly, with less coastal modification and more helpful land modification.

LS

I would like to see some retrogression shifting the high a bit further West and reducing the danger of the Atlantic coming in or the high sinking South into Europe.

[Polarlow]

Check out sat24 loop ... whats that over France ?

http://www.sat24.com/eu

Sure I just saw an eye pop out !!!!!

Edited January 10, 2010 by Polarlow

[Mondy]

Check out sat24 loop ... whats that over France ?

http://www.sat24.com/eu :lol:

Sure I just saw an eye pop out !!!!!

LOL

Actually, looking at that, there is snow in the North Sea. That cloudband should be making inroads soon and with our temps now falling as the sun goes down, be keen to see what later tonight brings :lol:

[NorthernRab]

Despite temperatures rising over the lowlands, it was the coldest day of the winter here in Inverness I'd say. Just been out and it is genuinely perishing even though there's not a breath of wind, -8'C day time max. Lovely! Now, for that the thaw :lol:

[Gilly]

What a beautiful day!

Blue skies and crisp snow underfoot! Perfect day for a walk.

Temps never got anywhere near freezing point today and now at -8C.

Doubt we will see very much snow for a while, other than a possible dusting tomorrow. This thaw will be slow.

We have had a very good run and only part way through winter - plenty of time for more cold weather and snow to return.:lol:

[blitzen]

LOL

Actually, looking at that, there is snow in the North Sea. That cloudband should be making inroads soon and with our temps now falling as the sun goes down, be keen to see what later tonight brings

With you on that one Mondy. Can't help thinking that just because we have lost the deep cold for now, this week in our 'normal' type winters' is offering the type of conditions that we would be looking for/expecting some snow?

[Norrance]

What a beautiful day!

Blue skies and crisp snow underfoot! Perfect day for a walk.

Temps never got anywhere near freezing point today and now at -8C.

Doubt we will see very much snow for a while, other than a possible dusting tomorrow. This thaw will be slow.

We have had a very good run and only part way through winter - plenty of time for more cold weather and snow to return.

Yes, even the famous cold spells of the past had milder interludes with temps above zero and partial thaws. Long way to go yet and no sign of any really high temps.

Speaking of the thaw, how would you like it to come? A slow gradual rise in temperatures, perhaps with the odd night with frost with a slow thaw of lying snow, a bit like 1963 or alternatively with the Atlantic coming in from the SW bringing blizzards before finally breaking through with heavy rain and strong SW winds aka 1947? This brought severe flooding.

[GraemeB]

Interesting band of cloud coming over us soon

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/?lat=55.83214387781303&lon=-3.4991455078125&zoom=7&layertype=layer&layer=1

Don't think it contains any white stuff though...nothing showing up on rain today site.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yes, even the famous cold spells of the past had milder interludes with temps above zero and partial thaws. Long way to go yet and no sign of any really high temps.

Speaking of the thaw, how would you like it to come? A slow gradual rise in temperatures, perhaps with the odd night with frost with a slow thaw of lying snow, a bit like 1963 or alternatively with the Atlantic coming in from the SW bringing blizzards before finally breaking through with heavy rain and strong SW winds aka 1947? This brought severe flooding.

I'd personally want it to go out in style, with '93 style snow followed by rain, but this week looks only to be a slow, partial thaw with the threat of some more snow and a potential reload of cold. Perhaps more like the Christmas 'breakdown' when temperatures reached 4C for a few days before the colder air flooded back in from the northeast. Plenty of snow still left on the rooftops in Strath, and hopefully we'll manage to get temperatures down to around 1C for most of the night to stop too much of a thaw. I really hope that dewpoints stay low enough tomorrow evening, as any rain event would be almost fatal to snowcover.

[Norrance]

Interesting band of cloud coming over us soon

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/?lat=55.83214387781303&lon=-3.4991455078125&zoom=7&layertype=layer&layer=1

Don't think it contains any white stuff though...nothing showing up on rain today site.

If you look closely at rain today there are faint blue echoes off Angus, Fife and the Forth. Perhaps they are picking up something very light?

[GraemeB]

Just bumming around the meto site - and Altnaharra currently recording -16....

Here in Stirling - wind has picked up 10mph and shifted to a NE direction, pressure falling as well....temp is up and down...

[sandstorm2]

Just had my 'warmest' day here for over a fortnight when the temp rose to 3c slight thaw of the lying snow, feels tropical in comparison to the -10's we have been having.

SS2

[Sawel]

GFS shows snow for Scotland on wednesday, will be interesting to see what the UKMO shows.

[Sunny Leith]

Don't think so either. Can see it to my immediate east and it looks like a big bank of pretty much high-cloud. Some kind of decayed front or something ? ... who knows ... Every chance all it'll do is cloud things over even more and keep temperatures up overnight here.

Greenock, Dundee, Perth, Embra, Coastal East Fife, Aberdeen etc all sitting on 4's and 5's just now ... warmer than Scillly Isles on 3c

Be surprised if us east-coasties drop much more tonight below 3s and 4s... wind is strong and steady, cloudy skies likely and a steady supply of modifying noth-sea air for the foreseeable future. Those further west might flirt with 1s and 2s.

Dew-points favourable but would need somthing organised and heavy to come along - and I can't see anything like that out there just now.

Interesting band of cloud coming over us soon

http://www.metoffice...e=layer&layer=1

Don't think it contains any white stuff though...nothing showing up on rain today site.

Edited January 10, 2010 by by-tor

[Polarlow]

Found this from RTE News

Dont know if its true, check out 1458 on the live weather updates !!!!!!!!! "Iceberg of the Irish coast"

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0110/tracker.html

[Snowplough33]

This may be a really silly question, and I have tried to find the answer with no joy, but how do read temps on this..........

Found this from RTE News

Dont know if its true, check out 1458 on the live weather updates !!!!!!!!! "Iceberg of the Irish coast"

http://www.rte.ie/ne...10/tracker.html

I saw this too, and thought it must be a laugh.........surely you dont get iceberg's breaching the gulf stream...........other than in lettuce form!!

Edited January 10, 2010 by Snowplough33

[Guest]

Don't think so either. Can see it to my immediate east and it looks like a big bank of pretty much high-cloud. Some kind of decayed front or something ? ... who knows ... Every chance all it'll do is cloud things over even more and keep temperatures up overnight here.

Greenock, Dundee, Perth, Embra, Coastal East Fife, Aberdeen etc all sitting on 4's and 5's just now ... warmer than Scillly Isles on 3c

Be surprised if us east-coasties drop much more tonight below 3s and 4s... wind is strong and steady, cloudy skies likely and a steady supply of modifying noth-sea air for the foreseeable future. Those further west might flirt with 1s and 2s.

Dew-points favourable but would need somthing organised and heavy to come along - and I can't see anything like that out there just now.

No snow until tomorrow, no model goes for snow today (I think). GFS then goes for light snow for most of the day tomorrow across the central belt. Possible "milder" conditions mid-week, it all depends how far north the precip/low gets. If "mild" is going to be 4C like today then so be it. No perceptible thaw today despite 4C and wind.

Edit: Temp down to 3C now, so snow cover safe for another Met-Office snow day :lol:

Edited January 10, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Ross B]

Despite todays high temperatures of 2/3c here there has been pretty much no thaw excluding some remaining snow melt on house roofs. I'll take that as a midler spell

[Sunny Leith]

Well done to the joker who got that onto that website...

Either it was calved by a Florida glacier and brought here by the gulf stream .... or someone has attached an outboard motor to one in Greenland waters and piloted the thing here ... Both are equally plausible.

Found this from RTE News

Dont know if its true, check out 1458 on the live weather updates !!!!!!!!! "Iceberg of the Irish coast"

http://www.rte.ie/ne...10/tracker.html

Edited January 10, 2010 by by-tor

[Pol]

Afternoon All,

Has remained a positively balmy 3.5C here pretty much all day ; that said the strong wind is the type that goes right through you. Can see grass in my garden for first time since 22/12 !!!

But an afternoon sledging in Peebles (0 deg C) took care of the snow worries : easily 2 feet deep in places. Almost lost the dog in one drift . Icicles were amazing too.

Think we are in for a few surprises this week : maybe much more marginal than what we have become accustomed to (amazing what we have started to take for granted) but the ingredients are without doubt there and in normal winters we would be franticly watching each model run.

P

[Hairy Celt]

Coldest night of the last 10 years here (just) last night, max so far today -2.0 and now dropping back sharply. But I can't see us holding our garden snow here for more than a few days the way that south-easterly wind looks like picking up; in fact, the next few days look fairly horrible, especially if that nasty letter from Northern C*^tstabulary arrives.

[sandstorm2]

This may be a really silly question, and I have tried to find the answer with no joy, but how do read temps on this..........

I saw this too, and thought it must be a laugh.........surely you dont get iceberg's breaching the gulf stream...........other than in lettuce form!!

This is the pressure chart if you go back into the same sight that gave you this chart there should be a link at the top for 850hp temps click on this and hey presto.

SS2

[Gilly]

Yes, even the famous cold spells of the past had milder interludes with temps above zero and partial thaws. Long way to go yet and no sign of any really high temps.

Speaking of the thaw, how would you like it to come? A slow gradual rise in temperatures, perhaps with the odd night with frost with a slow thaw of lying snow, a bit like 1963 or alternatively with the Atlantic coming in from the SW bringing blizzards before finally breaking through with heavy rain and strong SW winds aka 1947? This brought severe flooding.

A gradual thaw has less implication than a rapid one as you so rightly say. So personally I prefer the former, as in 1963.

[dinger]

This may be a really silly question, and I have tried to find the answer with no joy, but how do read temps on this..........

Hi SN33, from my understanding that chart is a Thickness chart showing DAM lines. Ordinarily if the DAM line is over 528 then any precipitation would be rain. Anything under 522 would normally be of snow. I am sure someone more knowledgeable will be able to explain it better but it doesn't really relate to temperature.

I'm sure there's quite a bit about chart reading in the learning area