Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 18:

[Guest]

Not great news here, will be rain now till we get injection of cold air............looks like it may stay further south..........if we have any snow left

It's a shame for those in the east. Further west I think snow is more likely, certainly early on in the week.

[Mondy]

There is no thaw on here whatsoever. It's 1c DP -1 with a wind chill of -8. The wind is biting cold. Physically go out in it and see.

[GraemeB]

Just been out in the car and it was showing 5c...definite thaw in Stirling but there's a very cold wind.

[GraemeB]

Meteoblue has a nice forecast for tomorrow...

[Snowplough33]

My car is showing 6 !!! It really does feel almost mild........what a change, but still its been fab cold and I am sure it will return at some point........its only early January!!

[Highland Snow]

My car is showing 6 !!! It really does feel almost mild........what a change, but still its been fab cold and I am sure it will return at some point........its only early January!!

Weather Stations in Monifieth and the West End of Dundee both registering +6C. +2.7C here now with little or no thaw. Doesn't look like tomorrow is going to happen for Tayside and Fife.

[Norrance]

Positively tropical air temp of 4.8C here. Little ground melt though the top layer is soft. Min last night -0.3C

Edited January 10, 2010 by Norrance

[Hawesy]

My car is showing 6 !!! It really does feel almost mild........what a change, but still its been fab cold and I am sure it will return at some point........its only early January!!

My weather station is reporting +5.5c...and I see that Leuchars is the warmest place in the UK according to the weatheronline.co.uk 12 Noon reports. Quite a contrast to yesterday and my snow is vanishing fast but I agree it's been a great spell here. Meanwhile the deep freeze continues up north: Altnaharra reporting -16.4c at Noon!

Edited January 10, 2010 by Hawesy

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Ah well, I suppose we were spoilt with those temps going on as long as they did. +4C in Glasgow and it looks as though the thaw is starting.

I'll miss the snow but likewise I'll also be able to get out running if we have some melt.

[snowy owl]

Well agreed the melt goes on, temps have risen more than we expected but we've still got a lot of snow to melt.

In terms of tonight, i doubt we'll be seeing much if anything apart from light snow - but nearer the coast it'll likely be more marginal. although the colder overnight temps who knows.

The ongoing week looks very up in the air (pardon the pun) :lol:

So much can change in the shorter term, so its a wait and see game.

off out for a bit in the lovely snow!

[Snowplough33]

My weather station is reporting +5.5c...and I see that Leuchars is the warmest place in the UK according to the weatheronline.co.uk 12 Noon reports. Quite a contrast to yesterday and my snow is vanishing fast but I agree it's been a great spell here. Meanwhile the deep freeze continues up north: Altnaharra reporting -16.4c at Noon!

Just watch that temp at Altnaharra shot up like a rocket when the winds push up that far. Even Glasgow, far west has had a massive temp shift. Were temps around there not like -10 earlier, and now we are hearing of +4.

[NorthernRab]

The milder air is soon to hit the Highlands, but chin up, this has been a fantastic spell. We're only half way through winter (and less than half way through the normal period for snowfall!) and already we have had a lot more snow than probably the last few years combined! A few more surprises to come I feel

[Methuselah]

The milder air is soon to hit the Highlands, but chin up, this has been a fantastic spell. We're only half way through winter (and less than half way through the normal period for snowfall!) and already we have had a lot more snow than probably the last few years combined! A few more surprises to come I feel

As you said earlier, Rab, it's been brilliant...I guess there's always a chance that, with the air coming across the snowfields, (if the sky stays clearish) we'll not see any thaw until tomorrow???

[thejailender]

As you said earlier, Rab, it's been brilliant...I guess there's always a chance that, with the air coming across the snowfields, (if the sky stays clearish) we'll not see any thaw until tomorrow???

Still -5.5'C with us here and bright sunshine. Today has been one of the coldest we've had in about a week.

I must admit I wouldn't be too disappointed if we were to get the wind and bring in warmer temperatures.

As for a thaw. It's going to take an age to thaw. The pack ice in my back garden is measuting 12cm which is about 5 inches. So even with temperatures around +4 or 5 it's going to takes ages to melt.

[Richard Taylor]

Tmp 04/Dw M04, wind has got up a bit.

[Northernlights]

Still -8c here and snow surface just sparkling one last harsh frost before it jumps, probably at dusk if we get a breeze.

[Norrance]

I don't think that the milder air will have much if any impact on the lying snow in inland Grampian, the Central or Northern Highlands, perhaps even inland in the Borders. Here the temp maxed at 4.9 today [so far] now 4.5C. Snow has disappeared from roofs and the sand and grit are finally getting somewhere on the roads but there is no noticable impact on the gardens and fields though the clear spaces under the shrubs ae growing. Looks like a slow melt.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Norrance

[Mondy]

Temps are now falling in the south (England) - interesting! Warmest parts appear to be east central Scotland. Temps will drop to zero again soon as sunset approaches. This is not entirely mild and still good for winter regardless.

[shuggee]

As big JH says Mondy, we're back to normal cold now, instead of intense unusual cold that we've become accustomed to...

[blitzen]

Temps are now falling in the south (England) - interesting! Warmest parts appear to be east central Scotland. Temps will drop to zero again soon as sunset approaches. This is not entirely mild and still good for winter regardless.

Actually Mondy, we are not losing anything much at all. Still wispy bits of snow sticking to the fronts of the walls etc. I still think we will pick something up overnight.

[Sunny Leith]

Yup. The same easterly corridor that brings snow through to the west when its cold enough ... also transports through this warmer modified-maritime air on days like this. Greater chance though of you guys recording a frost tonight and hanging onto cover longer for a day or two,

Unless we get a colder air source, or colder uppers then the gradual thaw is on for coasties/sea-levellers in central/southern Scotland. If we change the flow to south of east though that will help to preserve it. Its the current easterly/ENE/NE'r thats funnelling the warmer air through the corridor. An ESE/SE'r would change the fetch to coming over cold surfaces for the central belt and areas south and west.

Time will tell. Been a great period whatever happens now.

Ah well, I suppose we were spoilt with those temps going on as long as they did. +4C in Glasgow and it looks as though the thaw is starting.

I'll miss the snow but likewise I'll also be able to get out running if we have some melt.

Edited January 10, 2010 by by-tor

[Snowplough33]

Dont know what everyone makes of the model runs, and of course tomorrows weather can change, but the ECM run after a "mildish" hic-cup Wednesday is baltic to say the least.

Is this ECM not too bad, or is it generally thought that GSF is better, or are they all very up and down??

[Blizzardo]

Big temperature contrast across Scotland today with the last of the deep cold only left in the north. Higher temps of 5c in Dundee and 4c in Glasgow with a brisk easterly. Tomorrow will be interesting weather watching and there could be a bit of snow about more especially for Southern/Central Scotland.

Edited January 10, 2010 by Blizzardo

[LomondSnowstorm]

Dont know what everyone makes of the model runs, and of course tomorrows weather can change, but the ECM run after a "mildish" hic-cup Wednesday is baltic to say the least.

Is this ECM not too bad, or is it generally thought that GSF is better, or are they all very up and down??

The ECM is generally considered the better model, with a far lower margin of error i.e. if it is wrong, it isn't often wrong by a long way. In contrast, the GFS is incredibly inconsistent, though occasionally it can pick out a pattern that none of the other models see. The UKMO is good up to 120 hours, but there is a serious problem with the +144 charts. It doesn't look like 10C and rain anytime soon though, with southerlies merely making things colder due to the track over very cold land. This is the point when the block wins through: http://charts.netweather.tv/ecmimages/20100110/00/ecm500.192.png

And it sets up a very nice easterly flow with a gigantic fetch all the way to central Asia:

http://charts.netweather.tv/ecmimages/20100110/00/ecm500.240.png

Still a lot of wintry weather left in this pattern, given the strength of the block. A bit of a battleground this week, with southerly winds, though precipitation amounts are hard to call at the moment. However, temperatures are unlikely to get higher than what we've seen today, as the wind looks set to move towards a southerly, with less coastal modification and more helpful land modification.

LS

[Methuselah]

With rising temps overnight, the rime on trees and things could be spectacular, come tomorrow morning???