Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 18:

[LomondSnowstorm]

I really doubt my 10 inches on the grass will take much of a hit 40 metres above sea level with hills to the south and southeast. I'd rather see a southerly element in the wind to be honest as this would be highly modified by the arctic surface air across Britain so would keep things very cold. Also, -4C here now, with partial cloud cover, so I really hope this stuff freezes quite hard to slow any potential thaw later in the week, though the charts have upgraded the possibility of a reload via high pressure ridging up from the south. It would be grand to have more snow in the next few days, though of course the gfs precipitation type charts have it falling widely as sleet, simply because all the other indicators are totally conflicting with each other! Any precipitation type is possible, with freezing rain a genuine concern in many central areas for a time, before (hopefully) a period of quieter weather.

The reload potential is what interests me most about tonight's output -

ECM brings it about via a height rise from the south, which is what brought about the initial spell in mid-December -

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

The GFS 12Z just has the second low tracking further south, allowing the block to build without any help from a euro high -

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100109/12/126/h500slp.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100109/12/159/h850t850eu.png

The pub run also shows this:

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100109/18/114/h500slp.png

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100109/18/147/h500slp.png

Not too cold an easterly but at least not a total breakdown and with a slack flow temperatures would probably stay on the low side.

Thirdly, the UKMO brings a huge battle about between the block to the east, heights to the south and a giant atlantic low. I suspect though that the outcome would be similar to the other models i.e. the block winning eventually.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Lastly, a slightly under rated model with a fairly reliable output, the canadian GEM. This, which has been shown for a few days now by this model, brings the low further south and moves the block further north, giving a much better flow directly from Poland and Ukraine, actually bringing in more cold uppers with it. With a stronger scandi high now than was perhaps expected by the other models (though the GEM maintained it would be around 1055mb) this solution is becoming ever more plausible:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif

None of these are likely to bring about a weekend as cold as the middle of last week, with the worst case scenario being slightly above temperatures at the christmas period (which were still hardly warm and brought about 5 inches of snow here), though the best case scenario is a more settled period late next week followed by a colder easterly flow. Regardless, the most exciting thing in these runs is the potential for the cold spell to go on and on and re-intensify. As long as the block to the north of us stays intact, it will stay cold, snow will fall and rivers will stay frozen or freeze even more. http://photos-f.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc3/hs186.snc3/19366_1202253015971_1217963635_30520910_6812476_n.jpg That's the Tay at Newburgh!

Incredible to think how long this has gone on for, given that '47 never even got going until late January!

LS

[Joe Bloggs]

BT, SE England has been at 1/-3c for most of the day with heavy snow

Im not sure how much the surface cold comes into play in these situations?

N24 suggesting snow here Mon which is news to me?

NAE suggests we'll get some precip Joe, suggest rain at first glance

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/09/basis18/ukuk/prty/10011112_0918.gif

850-1000hPa 's look favourable for snow though

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/01/09/basis18/ukuk/th85/10011115_0918.gif

It all depends on the intensity of the North Sea modification.

Snow (certainly wet snow) isn't out of the question yet.

[Sunny Leith]

And now up to -1.8c over at Bishopton (also reporting NE wind)

Westies will hold onto cold longer but looks like in the central belt at least we're on the way to kissing goodbye to the impressive frigid cold of the last week.

Now -5 in Glasgow.

Edited January 9, 2010 by by-tor

[Duncan McAlister]

Sounds good to me if it comes off!

Yup, noticed Ayrshire was in the firing line on an earlier forecast :lol:

[Sunny Leith]

We just had an outright bone-cold week and now we're back to marginality. Certainly so at the coast.

At least I can stop looking at the radar for a while now, I'm not remotely interested in whether we get any snizzle or sleet ... just doesn't do it for me at all I'm afraid !

NAE suggests we'll get some precip Joe, suggest rain at first glance

http://expert.weathe...011112_0918.gif

850-1000hPa 's look favourable for snow though

http://expert.weathe...011115_0918.gif

It all depends on the intensity of the North Sea modification.

Snow (certainly wet snow) isn't out of the question yet.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

And now up to -1.8c on the other side at Bishopton (also reporting NE wind)

Westies will hold onto cold longer but looks like in the central belt at least we're on the way to kissing goodbye to the impressive frigid cold of the last week.

Sorry, that observation was actually at Prestwick Airport, not Glasgow.

[Joe Bloggs]

We just had an outright bone-cold week and now we're back to marginality. Certainly so at the coast.

At least I can stop looking at the radar for a while now, I'm not remotely interested in whether we get any snizzle or sleet ... just doesn't do it for me at all I'm afraid !

Fair do's.

Enjoy your break from the radar.

If it starts snowing on Monday though I bet you'll take a peek...

[Sunny Leith]

Fair do's.

Enjoy your break from the radar.

If it starts snowing on Monday though I bet you'll take a peek...

Sad but true !

Edit: back to 0c/DP -3c at Embra airport so the marginality game is in full swing over the coming hours and maybe days.

One consolation (stating the bleedin obvious for a second...) is that these are air temps. The ground temp must be at least a degree or so colder (its often 2, 3 or 4 degreees colder depending).... so lying snow isn't in line for a big hit any time soon.

Edited January 9, 2010 by by-tor

[scott_anthony_glasgow]

Sad but true !

Edit: back to 0c/DP -3c at Embra airport so the marginality game is in full swing over the coming hours and maybe days.

One consolation (stating the bleedin obvious for a second...) is that these are air temps. The ground temp must be at least a degree or so colder (its often 2, 3 or 4 degreees colder depending).... so lying snow isn't in line for a big hit any time soon.

this could be a very special snow event here really hoping it comes off as this could end up spectacular here Cheers

Scott

[LomondSnowstorm]

Modification sort of affecting here, with temperatures now back up to -1.8C. Not worried yet, given the depth of the snow and the fact temperatures are still below freezing in spite of cloud cover! Wind here is very light, and oddly more from west, which I suppose is a good thing. Tomorrow night looks a bit marginal, though I suspect it will be just the right side of marginal for most (not sure about Leith sadly By-Tor). I doubt the Met Office's maxima for tomorrow are accurate - 6C in Dundee looks a bit far-fetched, maybe 3C though.

[Hairy Celt]

Sad but true !

Edit: back to 0c/DP -3c at Embra airport so the marginality game is in full swing over the coming hours and maybe days.

One consolation (stating the bleedin obvious for a second...) is that these are air temps. The ground temp must be at least a degree or so colder (its often 2, 3 or 4 degreees colder depending).... so lying snow isn't in line for a big hit any time soon.

I wonder about ground temperatures, partly because of an interest in how plants respond to changes in air and ground temps... but I kind of doubt that ground gets really that cold under the snow, and this may be a bit of a downer for those expecting to retain their snow for many days even when the air is above zero. Snow prevents the ground from getting really cold because of its insulating properties.

I feel an experiment coming on...

[scott_anthony_glasgow]

I wonder about ground temperatures, partly because of an interest in how plants respond to changes in air and ground temps... but I kind of doubt that ground gets really that cold under the snow, and this may be a bit of a downer for those expecting to retain their snow for many days even when the air is above zero. Snow prevents the ground from getting really cold because of its insulating properties.

I feel an experiment coming on...

well at 210metres asl if I dont get snow then what else can most folk expect!heres hoping could be very special here but we will wait and see

Scott

[LomondSnowstorm]

well at 210metres asl if I dont get snow then what else can most folk expect!heres hoping could be very special here but we will wait and see

Scott

You are in absolutely the prime position for snow retention over the next few days. Lucky git. While even inland easties like myself have temperatures of -1C tonight with the real threat of snow melt over the next few days, you can relax with the prospect of more ice days! Still, can't complain, I've got 10 inches on the ground and have seen more snow in the last 25 days than in the entirety of my life before then, and I'm not even exaggerating! And still no sign of a full breakdown!

Enjoy the snow tomorrow, and hope it sticks around for a few more weeks yet everyone,and apologies to those in the far north and islands with no snow. The northerly may yet return provided the block sticks around! http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100109/12/348/h500slp.png

LS

[scott_anthony_glasgow]

no matter what happens from now on I think we can agree this has been an exceptional cold spell heres hoping for more by the way temp rite now is -11.4! Cheers

Scott

[LomondSnowstorm]

no matter what happens from now on I think we can agree this has been an exceptional cold spell heres hoping for more by the way temp rite now is -11.4! Cheers

Scott

Just checked the maxima for next week and it doesn't look at all bad here - only 2-3C at most,even in parts of Edinburgh, so any thaw would be pretty slow, considering the potential for further snowfall as well. A net gain by next Saturday? Fairly doubtful, but perhaps a loss of no more than an inch or two for most.

It has been some winter so far though - not often we see a 28 day period without a maxima above 4C here, and I never thought I'd look at the thermometer showing temperature of -1C and think 'wow, this is far too mild'! This is either the last great winter before GW takes hold, or, more likely IMO, the turning point in both public opinion and in the run of mild winters for the last few years. Either way, it will be remembered as a classic in these parts for years and decades to come, perhaps even centuries.

LS

[Sunny Leith]

Definitely already comparable to 86 and 79 LS. Whether it bears comparison with 63 and 47, only the coming weeks will tell. I agree that this is a turning pont in public opinion regarding GW. I don't want to go over that debate - thats well off topic - but whether its "real" or not, by this spring the public will recently have had 3 wet summers and 2 cold/coldish winters. That doesn't fit with the GW story at this point, and righty or wrongly, ordinary people will judge with their own recent personal experience, not the future projections of climate scientists.

Anyway, back on topic. Yes warmer here, and there'll be some minor ablation ongoing here just now if not exactly bog-standard melt. Air at 1c, DP at -3c and 15-20mph NE'rly ... the kind of thing that makes snow start to disappear gradually rather than slushily. Keeping my eye on any lightly snow-covered car windscreens the last few hours and some change is underway. Not dripping here, but as you know yourself that you can visibly detect a change in snow condition just by looking at external surfaces. The kind of useless skills us weather geeks acquire over the years by constant observation !

The straw I'm clutching at just now is the good DP's ... if we can hold onto that this next 36-48 hrs - and this Monday snowfall event comes off (not really sure yet where the BBC Met folks are getting this from for these parts...) then at least we have a shot at wettish (well wet here at least...) - snowfall. Surface will still be plenty cold enough to hold onto it if it happens.

Still an interesting period the next few days. I'll miss the proper cold of the past week but there have been so many twists and turns this past 24 days that I don't feel anything can be ruled out !

Edit: up to 2c air temp at Newcastle, Embra, Fife Ness and Leuchars now. DP's still good but its a pity the coastal effect is kicking in. The truly annoying thing is the persistant cloud-blanket ... some broken cloud and a bog-standard frost would be welome.... but this cloudy stuff seems set to obscure us and hold temperatures up.

Just checked the maxima for next week and it doesn't look at all bad here - only 2-3C at most,even in parts of Edinburgh, so any thaw would be pretty slow, considering the potential for further snowfall as well. A net gain by next Saturday? Fairly doubtful, but perhaps a loss of no more than an inch or two for most.

It has been some winter so far though - not often we see a 28 day period without a maxima above 4C here, and I never thought I'd look at the thermometer showing temperature of -1C and think 'wow, this is far too mild'! This is either the last great winter before GW takes hold, or, more likely IMO, the turning point in both public opinion and in the run of mild winters for the last few years. Either way, it will be remembered as a classic in these parts for years and decades to come, perhaps even centuries.

LS

Edited January 10, 2010 by by-tor

[Joe Bloggs]

There's actually some snow knocking on Edinburgh's door just now...!

+1C/-3C, I'd expect snow.

[Sunny Leith]

Ah the irony Joe ... it wouldn't touch us when Lauder was getting buried.

Now we're warming up and marginal, some light stuff pays a visit

Edit: radar says yes, lamppost gazing says no... Don't think I missed anything it seems

There's actually some snow knocking on Edinburgh's door just now...!

+1C/-3C, I'd expect snow.

Edited January 10, 2010 by by-tor

[Methuselah]

Good morning, peeps...Around -9C here, the now.

[Guest]

Good morning, peeps...Around -9C here, the now.

Bang on freezing here now that the wind is getting up. Not sure what to make of it until the sun rises and we'll see what the temp does then...

Edit: that's because there are clouds and light showers moving through from the east

Edited January 10, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Methuselah]

Aye, catch. There are some warmer uppers afoot...Tbh, if it's going to get warm enough to melt the snow, I'd rather it warmed enough to save on the lecky...

[Guest]

Aye, catch. There are some warmer uppers afoot...Tbh, if it's going to get warm enough to melt the snow, I'd rather it warmed enough to save on the lecky...

Warm uppers don't reach here for ages:

In fact, the latest GFS has us clinging to coolish uppers for a while yet:

Don't ask about these thumbnails

Edited January 10, 2010 by CatchMyDrift

[Snowplough33]

Warm uppers don't reach here for ages:

In fact, the latest GFS has us clinging to coolish uppers for a while yet:

Don't ask about these thumbnails

I just spied those thumbnails on the model thread.........dispare is kicking in down south as the expected snow is sleet on the coast. You dont say!!!

People asking how the east wind is not extreamly cold..............because the source is no longer deep cold, but couldn't be bothered writing this to explain

[GraemeB]

0 deg with -3 DP in Stirling...biting wind though.

Some ominous looking clouds moving in from the east as I type - not sure if they contain anything though

[NorthernRab]

Severe freezing fog here this morning, -12'C and everything is completely covered in a thick hoar frost: telephone wires, walls, plants, trees, bushes, roofs, cars and washing lines! Away back down to Glasgow this afternoon so will get a nice drive through the Cairngorms! Brilliant cold spell winter!