Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 18:

[LadyPakal]

The met yesterday said we'd get up to 4 today and be dry and partially cloudy, if I remember rightly.

[doctormog]

The met yesterday said we'd get up to 4 today and be dry and partially cloudy, if I remember rightly.

Mind you their site also says that it was raining at 3pm when I was out for a walk by the Dee (partly inspired by your photos!). At that time there was nice dry snow falling.

[Mondy]

The met yesterday said we'd get up to 4 today and be dry and partially cloudy, if I remember rightly.

Only today for the first time did I watch the Met O head honcho get that grilling on the Politics Show this last week. God, I squirmed for him such was his enept response/display..

[Sunny Leith]

Pretty much inevitable I think Catch that we'll get above freezing level tomorrow for the first time in 8 days in Leith/Coastal Embra and other east-coast areas right at the sea.

The saving grace is that we're more under the high so we shouldn't get quite as windblown (I hope). I think what will happen here tomorrow is that all the existing roofsnow and treesnow will start to go during the day. Some pavement slushing too I think. Grass level though we've got 24 days of cold in the ground and that snow is going to be way too hard to shift just by a few days of 2 or 3C air temperatures. Good chance we'll hold onto the majority of the snow here through the week to keep it visibly wintry here - well we already managed to do that through several 2-3C days + sleety snizzle after Xmas, so should do so again.

The cold-spell is just changing its face for a few days and we're still on track for one of colder Januarys of the last 50 to 100 years

I don't want to be the harbinger of doom for our east coasties, however, if the experience of east coastie England is anything to go by, the stronger winds are lifting temps right on the coast:

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

(then roll your cursor over the arrows to see the current weather pop up)

Nothing too warm, but a little above freezing. Dew points still look low though

[Guest]

Was the high over Norway supposed to be so strong??

1053mb is fairly strong

[Sunny Leith]

Must admit that strikes me as a large over-estimate by the Metoffice. I'd think 4 at the very very most.

Fact is, they're not very good at forecasting day/night temperatures for these parts either !

Tell me about it! The latest BBC forecast has a high of 6ºC here tomorrow and 5ºC by 9am. Thawtastic.

[Stockaree]

Pretty much inevitable I think Catch that we'll get above freezing level tomorrow for the first time in 8 days in Leith/Coastal Embra and other east-coast areas right at the sea.

The saving grace is that we're more under the high so we shouldn't get quite as windblown (I hope). I think what will happen here tomorrow is that all the existing roofsnow and treesnow will start to go during the day. Some pavement slushing too I think. Grass level though we've got 24 days of cold in the ground and that snow is going to be way too hard to shift just by a few days of 2 or 3C air temperatures. Good chance we'll hold onto the majority of the snow here through the week to keep it visibly wintry here - well we already managed to do that through several 2-3C days + sleety snizzle after Xmas, so should do so again.

The cold-spell is just changing its face for a few days and we're still on track for one of colder Januarys of the last 50 to 100 years

Such a shame, i feel things are changing, how long do you see this temperature rise lasting, some forecasts say for a good few days?

First time i remember snow lasting here for over 3 weeks, its been great, normally lasts for 2 days if your lucky.

[Sunny Leith]

Must admit that strikes me as a large over-estimate by the Metoffice. I'd think 4 at the very very most.

Fact is, they're not very good at forecasting day/night temperatures for these parts either !

Tell me about it! The latest BBC forecast has a high of 6ºC here tomorrow and 5ºC by 9am. Thawtastic.

[doctormog]

Must admit that strikes me as a large over-estimate by the Metoffice. I'd think 4 at the very very most.

Fact is, they're not very good at forecasting day/night temperatures for these parts either !

Re. The FAX chart, it (amazingly) looks genuine based on recent observations in Norway:

Pressure readings at 9pm: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiakttab?DISPLAY=1&INT=06&LANG=en&ART=kartealle&JJ=2010&MM=01&TT=09&TIME=2100&TYP=druck&KEY=NO

[Guest]

Re. The FAX chart, it (amazingly) looks genuine based on recent observations in Norway:

Pressure readings at 9pm: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiakttab?DISPLAY=1&INT=06&LANG=en&ART=kartealle&JJ=2010&MM=01&TT=09&TIME=2100&TYP=druck&KEY=NO

It should be genuine since it's the analysis chart

It just looks stronger than forecast, which may indicate the block is strong (as if we didn't know that!) :lol:

[Sunny Leith]

Who knows John. From a NIMBY Embra perspective, anything that takes the wind ESE (looks like by Tuesday) should take another degree or so of the max. The main thing is if we're able to generate a ground frost over the next few nights then that will slow any thaw to a crawl I'd think.

Like I say, we held onto snow for a few dodgy (ahem) "warm" days around Xmas when we had our highest readings of the past 24 days at 3c or so.

I think we'll lose the relatively pristine prettiness and replace it with the more normal snow scenes we get in any city ... slush, mush, crust and ice.

I expect grassy areas from Princes Street Gdns and up to The Meadows, Brunstsfield etc to hold onto the white stuff with some patchy degradation. Folk in Liberton, Colinton, Juniper Green, Currie, Balerno ... will probably notice very little difference at all given their current very significant accumulations of 10 to 20 cms !

I'll place a small bet with myself that I'll still be able to see level snow on the green of Hillside Bowling Club (which I overlook) in 7 days time. Its been there since Dec 17th, and I swear its welded to the ground by the cold now !

Such a shame, i feel things are changing, how long do you see this temperature rise lasting, some forecasts say for a good few days?

First time i remember snow lasting here for over 3 weeks, its been great, normally lasts for 2 days if your lucky.

Edited January 9, 2010 by by-tor

[Stockaree]

Who knows John. From a NIMBY Embra perspective, anything that takes the wind ESE (looks like by Tuesday) should take another degree or so of the max. The main thing is if we're able to generate a ground frost over the next few nights then that will slow any thaw to a crawl I'd think.

Like I say, we held onto snow for a few dodgy (ahem) "warm" days around Xmas when we had our highest readings of the past 24 days at 3c or so.

I think we'll lose the relatively pristine prettiness and replace it with the more normal snow scenes we get in any city ... slush, mush, crust and ice.

I expect grassy areas from Princes Street Gdns and up to The Meadows, Brunstsfield etc to hold onto the white stuff with some patchy degradation. Folk in Liberton, Colinton, Juniper Green, Currie, Balerno ... will probably notice very little difference at all given their current very significant accumulations of 10 to 20 cms !

I'll place a small bet with myself that I'll still be able to see level snow on the green of Hillside Bowling Club (which I overlook) in 7 days time. Its been there since Dec 17th, and I swear its welded to the ground by the cold now !

I agree, reading peoples views tonight, they say lots of snow for the next couple of days in northern england away from the coast which will have rain/sleet, never good here when the wind picks up from the east direstion as temps always rise, If the wind picks up i fear we will not see temps below freezing even at night,

[Northernlights]

Well we are into our 24th day of significant lying snow tomorrow with only about 6 days when the temperature rose above freezing to a maximum of 2c so 16 ice days, icicles up to 4 feet long now with about 18 inches of compacted refrozen snow which will take some shifting . Moving around on foot to feed the animals is all about balencing on icy surfaces and the legs really ache at night. I am sure I will be able to take photos of remaining snow patches in shaded areas of the local woods in the middle of March if this turns into an old winter of the sixties with odd snow and grauple showers contiuing until the end of April. The weight of this compacted snow on roofs is causing real damage now with another old steading half a mile away collapsing today and gutters being ripped off. Currently -5c and clear.

Well we are into our 24th day of significant lying snow tomorrow with only about 6 days when the temperature rose above freezing to a maximum of 2c so 16 ice days, icicles up to 4 feet long now with about 18 inches of compacted refrozen snow which will take some shifting . Moving around on foot to feed the animals is all about balencing on icy surfaces and the legs really ache at night. I am sure I will be able to take photos of remaining snow patches in shaded areas of the local woods in the middle of March if this turns into an old winter of the sixties with odd snow and grauple showers contiuing until the end of April. The weight of this compacted snow on roofs is causing real damage now with another old steading half a mile away collapsing today and gutters being ripped off. Currently -5c and clear.

[Highland Snow]

Major upgrade to snow risk on latest BBC News 24 Weather. By Monday night the whole country will have snow - "proper winter" as the forecaster said.

[Sunny Leith]

Thanks for that DM. Also amazing seeing these high temperatures ... 4c, 5c even 6c ... way way up there in deepest arctic northern Norway. OK I understand why it happens ... but still amazing the effect that onshore westerly has on the northern flank of that intense high pressure !

Re. The FAX chart, it (amazingly) looks genuine based on recent observations in Norway:

Pressure readings at 9pm: http://www.weatheron...YP=druck&KEY=NO

Edited January 9, 2010 by by-tor

[Sunny Leith]

Aha.

Wind has changed at Embra Airport, the first NorthEast direction of the day. Temperature up 4c in one hr to -1c/DP -2c and rain at 2200.

Will be easy to see now if we've had the same change at Leith level... if the roofs, trees, cars all start to mush up now. It'll be visible very shortly if thats the case.

Oh well ....

Edited January 9, 2010 by by-tor

[shuggee]

Yep. But remember the METAR at EDI often reports the wrong conditions. In clear blue sky the other day and -5ºC is was reporting rain showers...

[Sunny Leith]

True true true Shuggs .... I'll hold back on anouncing the death of this stage of the cold spell in Leith ...

Edit: although Duns is also reporting light rain at the same time. Think change may be on the doorstep.

Yep. But remember the METAR at EDI often reports the wrong conditions. In clear blue sky the other day and -5ºC is was reporting rain showers...

Edited January 9, 2010 by by-tor

[Norrance]

Temp here has risen to -0.1C, the highest of the day. There is a breeze and partial cloud. May lose the ice day though.

[Mondy]

Impressive temp. difference given the relatively short distance between both airports.

Edinburgh @ +1c

Glasgow @ -10c

Edited January 9, 2010 by Mondy

[Sunny Leith]

Think its going only one way now for us east-coasties. Embra airport now up to 1c/DP -3c and reporting rain. NE wind blowing and seems set to take hold.

First time above freezing in 8 days there.

Temp here has risen to -0.1C, the highest of the day. There is a breeze and partial cloud. May lose the ice day though.

Edit: I'm not venturing out but tree branches are blowing about for the first time today. And the earlier snow from today that was on hedges is starting to glisten wet in the street lights (always a good indication that the air temperature has gone above freezing)

Edited January 9, 2010 by by-tor

[Ross B]

Major upgrade to snow risk on latest BBC News 24 Weather. By Monday night the whole country will have snow - "proper winter" as the forecaster said.

Sounds good to me if it comes off!

[JoeShmoe]

Impressive temp. difference given the relatively short distance between both airports.

Edinburgh @ +1c

Glasgow @ -10c

BT, SE England has been at 1/-3c for most of the day with heavy snow

Im not sure how much the surface cold comes into play in these situations?

N24 suggesting snow here Mon which is news to me?

[Joe Bloggs]

Think its going only one way now for us east-coasties. Embra airport now up to 1c/DP -3c and reporting rain. NE wind blowing and seems set to take hold.

First time above freezing in 8 days there.

Edit: I'm not venturing out but tree branches are blowing about for the first time today. And the earlier snow from today that was on hedges is starting to glisten wet in the street lights (always a good indication that the air temperature has gone above freezing)

LOL it was bound to happen given I am coming back to uni tomorrow!

It's all about the dewpoint really.

I'd prefer 3C/-1C to 1/1C

850 - 1000 hPa thicknesses from the 18z NAE STILL look favourable for snow out to T+48 , it all depends whether the onshore breeze and North Sea modification are the overriding parameters.

You never know, we might be surprised.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Impressive temp. difference given the relatively short distance between both airports.

Edinburgh @ +1c

Glasgow @ -10c

Now -5 in Glasgow.