Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 18:

[Norrance]

Its the buisness.......good call Mondy!!

Yes thanks for this Mondy. Maybe they can't always forecast but they do have some very useful tools and records.

[Guest]

Glasgow Airport has dropped 5C in 90 minutes :wacko:

Anyone worried about milder weather should consider that even if the air temp goes up to 10C the ground is going to take weeks to thaw. Imagine lining up a single layer of millions of huge frozen Xmas turkeys on the ground right across the country, and then leaving them to thaw in a coolish air temp. How long do you think that would take?

[Snowplough33]

Its far from heavy, but been snowing gentle for about 2 hours here. Just enough to watch them fall past the lamp post There is nothing at all on the radar. Guess that if the wind blows off the sea all night, it may continue.

Any other coasties have this??

[Guest]

Its far from heavy, but been snowing gentle for about 2 hours here. Just enough to watch them fall past the lamp post There is nothing at all on the radar. Guess that if the wind blows off the sea all night, it may continue.

Any other coasties have this??

I'm too far away for it to be my dandruff

[dinger]

Glasgow Airport has dropped 5C in 90 minutes

Imagine lining up a single layer of millions of huge frozen Xmas turkeys on the ground right across the country, and then leaving them to thaw in a coolish air temp. How long do you think that would take?

With analogies like that, it can't be long before the men in white coats come and take you away catch!

I mean Turkeys, Cuckoo!!!

Edited January 9, 2010 by dinger

[Hairy Celt]

Glasgow Airport has dropped 5C in 90 minutes

Anyone worried about milder weather should consider that even if the air temp goes up to 10C the ground is going to take weeks to thaw. Imagine lining up a single layer of millions of huge frozen Xmas turkeys on the ground right across the country, and then leaving them to thaw in a coolish air temp. How long do you think that would take?

It's all the frozen doggy droppings hiding in those turkeys that bother me...

[Guest]

With analogies like that, it can't be long before the men in white coats come and take you away catch!

I mean Turkeys, Cuckoo!!!

And take me where dinger?? They don't have any other padded cells like the one I'm in....

[dinger]

And take me where dinger?? They don't have any other padded cells like the one I'm in....

You might need one once catch junior number 3 arrives.

Hopefully it will be our turn midweek for a momentous frontal event, before another reload of extreme cold. Need to go, the nurse has just came in with my tablets

Edited January 9, 2010 by dinger

[Sunny Leith]

Same here SP33 ... if I watch the lamppost long enough ... then a flake comes down. Possibly the lightest snowfall thats its possible to imagine ... 1 flake per 100 cubic metres per minute. Pretty pointless stuff really and would be happier if this coastal cloud blanket just bogged off now. Think we might be stuck with it though and its probably a precursor to some warmer coastal temperatures tomorrow. If the wind gets up to any speed then it'll start to rid the coasts of their currently still freezing air...

Its far from heavy, but been snowing gentle for about 2 hours here. Just enough to watch them fall past the lamp post There is nothing at all on the radar. Guess that if the wind blows off the sea all night, it may continue.

Any other coasties have this??

[Mondy]

The hyperactive weather forecaster on BBC24 mentions midweek near the end of his forecast.."we are watching this thing - could be something special" or words to that effect.

Also showed helluva lot of snow moving north tomorrow evening. Dec 17 brought my first snowfall from a southerly (Christ, it's still lying out there now topped up by other recent snowfalls ) so with temps even cooler now than they were then, fully expect to see a level foot by end of evening/Monday morning

[Snowplough33]

The hyperactive weather forecaster on BBC24 mentions midweek near the end of his forecast.."we are watching this thing - could be something special" or words to that effect.

Also showed helluva lot of snow moving north tomorrow evening. Dec 17 brought my first snowfall from a southerly (Christ, it's still lying out there now topped up by other recent snowfalls ) so with temps even cooler now than they were then, fully expect to see a level foot by end of evening/Monday morning

He is without exception, the most annoying forecaster they have by miles!!

[Guest]

He is without exception, the most annoying forecaster they have by miles!!

Although if that snow forecast for Sunday overnight into Monday comes off...

[Mondy]

Fax chart shows the Atlantic knocking at the door, but it's short lived. Below is the closest it gets (with the LP to the SW of UK). The next chart has it dive-bombing south. Note slack isobars over Scotland and a NW'ly airflow, so really, no change next midweek for us. The poor Atlantic is scunnered!

[blitzen]

He is without exception, the most annoying forecaster they have by miles!!

He's like an escapee from the mad hatter's tea party and the teeth don't help! Must he speak so fast?

[Snowplough33]

He's like an escapee from the mad hatter's tea party and the teeth don't help! Must he speak so fast?

So true.............!!!

Fax chart shows the Atlantic knocking at the door, but it's short lived. Below is the closest it gets (with the LP to the SW of UK). The next chart has it dive-bombing south. Note slack isobars over Scotland and a NW'ly airflow, so really, no change next midweek for us. The poor Atlantic is scunnered!

SE airflow you mean

[Mondy]

So true.............!!!

SE airflow you mean

Yeah, SE'ly :blush: :lol:

[Snowplough33]

Yeah, SE'ly

Wish it was NW.....would do wonders for my snow preservation. The evil N Sea is going to kill it next week and some of it is nearly 4 weeks old !!

[Mondy]

I'm not so sure SP33. The track of the low is key. The block is probably so strong that it may head south without even reaching western UK shores. The models prog it to head SW UK, but they are only models and not a given. Besides, it may just throw a weak frontal feature over us, which dissipates.

If it does continue south due to being blocked, the winds will remain more easterly than SE'ly, and that's a good thing for snow retention. Besides, by early Monday morning you might have so much snow you'll be happy for a slight melt

One other thing I notice is that if the winds do shift SE'ly, they only do so for max 24/36 hours, then back to easterly. Plus, the whole of Europe is "baltic" right now so any southerly component isn't going to do too much damage.

The main damage to snow will be in a few weeks (months? )when the Atlantic comes bouncing back (it always does) - I mean temps of +8c will eventually occur from the west, and when they do it will be a huge mess when the thaw/melt begins proper!

EDIT: I think this is what I mean..

Edited January 9, 2010 by Mondy

[Joe Bloggs]

TBH I'm not 100% convinced that places like Edinburgh are without a snow risk in the next 48 hours.

If you look at the 850 - 1000 hPa thicknesses on the NAE model they quite comfortably allow for snow.

Monday need watching...

[Snowplough33]

Yeah there seems to be a great deal of unknown about how far the snow down south will track. For a while it looked to cover a good deal of Englandshire. Then a few days ago it was going to be S England, but today there seems to be some hint from Beeb and there sources I guess that it may go further North. Infact Beeb TXT says for Monday, snow for all except far North of Scotland so who knows. Again the best would be if we thought it going to be just to the North of England, but shifted north, unforecast and burried us shin deep in snow.

[Guest]

I don't want to be the harbinger of doom for our east coasties, however, if the experience of east coastie England is anything to go by, the stronger winds are lifting temps right on the coast:

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

(then roll your cursor over the arrows to see the current weather pop up)

Nothing too warm, but a little above freezing. Dew points still look low though

[Mondy]

Couldn't resist

http://www.viddler.com/explore/failblog/videos/398/

http://www.viddler.com/explore/failblog/videos/390/

[blitzen]

EDIT: I think this is what I mean..

I should pay more attention! Blimey, could get really bad then a bit further down the line. Post 199 in there is an eye opener!

Edit: Just noticed it's the Russian Model!

Edited January 9, 2010 by Blitzen

[Mondy]

That's a nice chart they display

So the North Sea will still be running at +7.5c ?

[doctormog]

I don't want to be the harbinger of doom for our east coasties, however, if the experience of east coastie England is anything to go by, the stronger winds are lifting temps right on the coast:

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

(then roll your cursor over the arrows to see the current weather pop up)

Nothing too warm, but a little above freezing. Dew points still look low though

Tell me about it! The latest BBC forecast has a high of 6ºC here tomorrow and 5ºC by 9am. Thawtastic.