Cold Spell Discussion

[les1234]

I have enjoyed reading all the regional post over the last few weeks and for us cold lovers we have been spoiled and now its back to reality with a bump into the wet and windy weather.

This year i am going to educate myself and get to grips with model reading so i can understand and interact with the model output thread ,till then i will continue reading all the post and asking questions when i need something explained,this winter has been the best i can remember for over 20 years and i hope this is the start off a trend to wards colder winters.

For me it is not just about snow its also about clear night time skies and hard frosts and long walks with the dogs in bright sunshine,but i am also realist and know that our winters never guarantee such weather and that we have to take the good with the bad ,last night itv program about how the country has copped was interesting but i can not see are government spending a couple off billion pounds to mack sure we can cope in the future,but you never know.

So thanks everyone for the great posts over the last few weeks and not forgetting we still have two more months off winter left .

[trickydicky]

Ive got to say I'm confused at the minute. In one corner we have Michael Fish (infinate years of weather forecasting behind him) saying the high over Northern European Russia (not Siberia) will extend its influence over us by the middle to end of next week. We also have Tomasz Shafynackers (professional weather forecaster) predicting a return to cold next week on the radio. Inhabiting this corner are also a few of the more learned and persistent Model Discussion Thread dwellers. In the other corner we have a load of amatuer weather nerds predicting an imminent and eternal return to mild south westerly blow torch style weather (or something similar). The same ones who said the same thing around Boxing Day/New Year. Who are you supposed to believe. One to chew over.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

In the other corner we have a load of amatuer weather nerds predicting an imminent and eternal return to mild south westerly blow torch style weather (or something similar).

I think it's going to turn a lot milder for the forseeable future.

Actually, today I've reached 30 days with complete snow cover. That'll do for me now. I'm fed-up of falling over, and it's miserable. Imagine seeing green fields again. Daffodils popping their heads through the ground to look at wandering clouds below which fly little birds, making their nests for the spring when the air shall be filled with sweet song. And then a late cold-spell comes along and kills everything.

[peterf]

I think it's going to turn a lot milder for the forseeable future.

Actually, today I've reached 30 days with complete snow cover. That'll do for me now. I'm fed-up of falling over, and it's miserable. Imagine seeing green fields again. Daffodils popping their heads through the ground to look at wandering clouds below which fly little birds, making their nests for the spring when the air shall be filled with sweet song. And then a late cold-spell comes along and kills everything.

someone's full of the joys of spring this morning

[Terminal Moraine]

This morning is the 25th with lying snow ( Met' Office definition ) here, this winter, equalling the total for the winter of 1980/81 and currently standing 10th in the last 32 years.

Next in sight are the winters of 1977/78 and 1993/94 which had 27 mornings with lying snow; and we've still got 6 weeks of winter remaining.

[La Bise]

Ive got to say I'm confused at the minute. In one corner we have Michael Fish (infinate years of weather forecasting behind him) saying the high over Northern European Russia (not Siberia) will extend its influence over us by the middle to end of next week. We also have Tomasz Shafynackers (professional weather forecaster) predicting a return to cold next week on the radio. Inhabiting this corner are also a few of the more learned and persistent Model Discussion Thread dwellers. In the other corner we have a load of amatuer weather nerds predicting an imminent and eternal return to mild south westerly blow torch style weather (or something similar). The same ones who said the same thing around Boxing Day/New Year. Who are you supposed to believe. One to chew over.

Post of the Week for me...

[Thundery wintry showers]

Here's an alternative scenario. Imagine the grass being all green, but muddy and mucky underfoot, and soaking wet. A sharp, stinging drizzle blows hard in the strong south-westerly wind, accompanied by leaden skies. A layer of featureless stratus has persisted almost without a break for over a week due to the persistent "Bartlett" regime with high pressure to the S and SE feeding tropical maritime air in. It has not got light for well over a week- dark and grey by day, and black by night. In the meantime the media are full of stories about how gloriously sunny it has been in London where the temperature has reached 18C on a couple of occasions and people are sunbathing in the unseasonal warmth and sunshine at places like Hastings and Eastbourne.

Many people who spent the likes of January 1989 and February 1998 in north-western Britain may be able to identify with that scenario. We also have had months like December 1971, February 1980 and December 1988 when the cloudy drizzly weather affected even the southeast.

[Bobby]

Here's an alternative scenario. Imagine the grass being all green, but muddy and mucky underfoot, and soaking wet. A sharp, stinging drizzle blows hard in the strong south-westerly wind, accompanied by leaden skies. A layer of featureless stratus has persisted almost without a break for over a week due to the persistent "Bartlett" regime with high pressure to the S and SE feeding tropical maritime air in. It has not got light for well over a week- dark and grey by day, and black by night. In the meantime the media are full of stories about how gloriously sunny it has been in London where the temperature has reached 18C on a couple of occasions and people are sunbathing in the unseasonal warmth and sunshine at places like Hastings and Eastbourne.

Many people who spent the likes of January 1989 and February 1998 in north-western Britain may be able to identify with that scenario. We also have had months like December 1971, February 1980 and December 1988 when the cloudy drizzly weather affected even the southeast.

Although I don't mind at all mild wet windy Atlantic weather I don't like Bartletts as they're so dull and stagnant. The Atlantic weather I like is the mobile type with big deep depressions smashing into Britain bringing heavy rain and gale force winds followed by squally heavy showers. Probably why I really enjoyed November - a perfect example of that weather.

Edited January 15, 2010 by Barb-

[Thundery wintry showers]

To a large extent I'm with you on that one, I would much rather have a mobile westerly regime with plenty of Atlantic-generated excitement rather than the stable weather of the Bartlett.

One of the few downsides of the Norwich climate is that it's quite well sheltered from the force of "Atlantic" weather and so we tend to get fairly ordinary rain bands with mainly dry bright weather in between rather than the squally showers that hit central and western districts from those polar maritime bursts. I think this, coupled with the large population base in the south-east, may heavily contribute to the general dislike of "Atlantic" weather on this forum.

From a personal perspective I must admit I tend to enjoy Atlantic-dominated months with a strong emphasis on polar maritime airmasses, even given being based in eastern England.

[Bobby]

To a large extent I'm with you on that one, I would much rather have a mobile westerly regime with plenty of Atlantic-generated excitement rather than the stable weather of the Bartlett.

One of the few downsides of the Norwich climate is that it's quite well sheltered from the force of "Atlantic" weather and so we tend to get fairly ordinary rain bands with mainly dry bright weather in between rather than the squally showers that hit central and western districts from those polar maritime bursts. I think this, coupled with the large population base in the south-east, may heavily contribute to the general dislike of "Atlantic" weather on this forum.

That's a good point, I suppose Atlantic weather isn't very exciting in the E/SE of England, even the mobile type. Mobile Atlantic weather here usually brings huge amounts of rain (400-500mm last November for example), lots of strong winds and plenty of blustery showers so there's lots of interest for a weather enthusiast. In SE it would generally just be mild, damp and breezy.

You get a lot more thunderstorms over there though, I can't rememer the last time we had a proper thunderstorm here... probably May 2007 or 2006? Sigh. I do like a good thunderstorm.

[La Bise]

Although I don't mind at all mild wet windy Atlantic weather I don't like Bartletts as they're so dull and stagnant. The Atlantic weather I like is the mobile type with big deep depressions smashing into Britain bringing heavy rain and gale force winds followed by squally heavy showers. Probably why I really enjoyed November - a perfect example of that weather.

That might be fun to follow from your computer screen but if you like the great outdoors it's not exactly very enticing...

[Nights King]

To a large extent I'm with you on that one, I would much rather have a mobile westerly regime with plenty of Atlantic-generated excitement rather than the stable weather of the Bartlett.

One of the few downsides of the Norwich climate is that it's quite well sheltered from the force of "Atlantic" weather and so we tend to get fairly ordinary rain bands with mainly dry bright weather in between rather than the squally showers that hit central and western districts from those polar maritime bursts. I think this, coupled with the large population base in the south-east, may heavily contribute to the general dislike of "Atlantic" weather on this forum.

From a personal perspective I must admit I tend to enjoy Atlantic-dominated months with a strong emphasis on polar maritime airmasses, even given being based in eastern England.

I think if you lived in the west country you would soon get fed up of the atlantic! Yes you can get some impressive stormy bands of rain and wind but when we get it 24/7 all though a summer and most winters of last 10 years it becomes a pain in the ass for those of us who like to get outside or indeed work outside.

Cold and clear or cold and snowy all winter would be fine for me working outside but endless rain no thanks.

[trickydicky]

I think if you lived in the west country you would soon get fed up of the atlantic! Yes you can get some impressive stormy bands of rain and wind but when we get it 24/7 all though a summer and most winters of last 10 years it becomes a pain in the ass for those of us who like to get outside or indeed work outside.

Cold and clear or cold and snowy all winter would be fine for me working outside but endless rain no thanks.

I spent most nights of the first 18 years of my life sleeping in a flat roofed, large windowed bedroom, which faced south west from the top of a 600ft high hill in West Cumbria, with nothing between it and the Irish Sea. As a result of the drumming effect of rain on a flat roof and the rattling sound of wind blown rain hitting a window I have a deeply engrained hatred of all weather of a Tropical Maritime nature. PM's weren't so bad as they were on the other side of the house. What I feel some people dont understand when they say how exciting Atlantic driven weather is, is the clostraphobic feeling of living somewhere where you can't really go outside due to persistant rain, and of perisitant low cloud and hill fog. I think you need to have spent most of your life in our hillier western areas to gain this type of hatred. When they predominate for most of the year, it just rubs salt in the wounds.

[Timmytour]

Many of us on here would love a winter like 1962/3...but what would we be prepared to sacrifice for it? Summer?

1962 was a pretty poor summer. We talk now about temps getting above 30C but the best London could do back then was 25C...and I think this was in September! I'm pretty sure that the highest temperature of the year was one of the lowest values reached in the whole century!

Now I know the two are not mutually dependent, but would you put up with a cold damp summer if you knew the "reward" was going to be a long cold snowy winter?

[La Bise]

Hear, hear Tricky.

You just need to have a life that takes you out of the house to have a dislike of heavy rain and howling gales. Granted it can be quite spectacular (I was actually up on the High Street ridge this rotten November, when the wind was gusting at 75mph; being buffeted like a sack of spuds was the easy part, it's the noise that remains with me...) but it does not add much to the enjoyement of one's active life.

[trickydicky]

would you put up with a cold damp summer if you knew the "reward" was going to be a long cold snowy winter?

Every time. We have experienced within the last 10 years 2 record breaking summers, but no exceptional winter for 31 years.

[lukemc]

Many of us on here would love a winter like 1962/3...but what would we be prepared to sacrifice for it? Summer?

1962 was a pretty poor summer. We talk now about temps getting above 30C but the best London could do back then was 25C...and I think this was in September! I'm pretty sure that the highest temperature of the year was one of the lowest values reached in the whole century!

Now I know the two are not mutually dependent, but would you put up with a cold damp summer if you knew the "reward" was going to be a long cold snowy winter?

Hi,

But wasn't the very severe winter of 1947 followed by a decent summer? Just goes to show that a cold winter doesn't always mean a poor summer!

Luke

[Thundery wintry showers]

I spent 3 years in Lancaster and some time in Exeter so I have an idea what Atlantic dominated weather is like in the west. When I say I like some types of Atlantic weather I'm really thinking about the polar maritime airmasses- frequent bright weather interspersed with squally showers, the chance of hail and thunder, and occasional frontal systems bringing longer outbreaks of rain. And on rare occasions (e.g. March 1995, January 1984) you can even get widespread snowstorms from them.

But I can certainly identify with the comments about tropical maritime airmasses. In Lancaster in particular, during a prolonged spell of tropical maritime air, you'd be lucky to see any sunshine at all, and every day would be drizzly and damp and would feel cold in the wind even though the thermometer said it was mild. Thus the Bartlett is the worst case scenario for many parts of western/north-western Britain as it often brings this scenario for prolonged periods. And of course frequent frontal activity can bring about the problem that north-west England had on 17-19 November 2009- dull wet weather for days on end leading to flooding.

[Iceaxecrampon]

I think it's going to turn a lot milder for the forseeable future.

Actually, today I've reached 30 days with complete snow cover. That'll do for me now. I'm fed-up of falling over, and it's miserable. Imagine seeing green fields again. Daffodils popping their heads through the ground to look at wandering clouds below which fly little birds , making their nests for the spring when the air shall be filled with sweet song. And then a late cold-spell comes along and kills everything.

......Waxings lyrical - of Wordsworth proportion - it must be something in the water up there....

Edited January 15, 2010 by Iceaxecrampon

[conor123]

Absolutely frigid out there today walking back, heavy rain this morning at 0c and despite the forecast for milder weather today its currently just 2.2c with thick fog/100 meter visibility, feels raw.

[lukemc]

Hi,

Does anyone on here really think that a mild or even exceptionally mild February is likely or very likely? One thing you have got to take into consideration is that February in this country at least is often the coldest (and of course snowiest!) month of the winter and is often the time of year that has the Atlantic at its weakest. For example looking at that other cold/severe winters of the past most of them seemed to have a cold or very cold February (or a cold spell for at least part of February) for example 1962/63, 1946/47, 1978/79, 1985, 1986, 1990/1991 and 1995/96 and of course last winter, 2008/09. The main exception to this seems to be 1981/82 and possibly 1996/97 and 2001/02. So statistically speaking from purely looking at data from past winters it would seem that a colder than average February (or at least a February which includes a significant cold spell) would be more likely than not. And of course even if we did get a mild February we could always have the possibility of a cold and snowy March, for example March in many years is often snowier than December! We had one of our biggest snowfalls of the 2000s decade in March in Liverpool (March 2006) - and I have read that the charts for much of January 2006 where poor from a cold weather perspective! so that is one of the reasons why I get frustrated at posts that seem to imply that it is game over as far as cold weather is concerned when we are still in mid January - please tell me what your thoughts are. Also regarding Glacier Point saying that a mild or even very February is likely from teleconnection signals is it true that he predicts a settled spell with HP just to the south of the UK with mild days but cold (and frosty!) nights would be more likely than raging zonality, would we be looking at a setup similar too February 2008 or late March 2009?

Luke

[trickydicky]

Yesterday, or maybe the day before, there was some discussion over 'signs' of incoming cold spells from the east. Some people thought it a good sign that there was a lot of unusual bird species in their gardens etc. Now, i'm now birdist, but surely if these birds were moving away from the cold then its a bad sign for them to be in our gardens. I would have thought a better sign of an impending cold spell would be an invasion of Waxwings/Bitterns/Polish Crows into the gardens of South West Ireland.

[Bobby]

What I feel some people dont understand when they say how exciting Atlantic driven weather is, is the clostraphobic feeling of living somewhere where you can't really go outside due to persistant rain, and of perisitant low cloud and hill fog. I think you need to have spent most of your life in our hillier western areas to gain this type of hatred. When they predominate for most of the year, it just rubs salt in the wounds.

Hear, hear Tricky.

You just need to have a life that takes you out of the house to have a dislike of heavy rain and howling gales. Granted it can be quite spectacular (I was actually up on the High Street ridge this rotten November, when the wind was gusting at 75mph; being buffeted like a sack of spuds was the easy part, it's the noise that remains with me...) but it does not add much to the enjoyement of one's active life.

I've spent all my life in the Welsh Valleys and you don't get a much wetter place in Britain. But it doesn't bother me. Maybe I'm odd but there's something about mild wet windy weather that I like.

Also I'm outdoors at least ~2 hours a day pretty much every day of year but it's no problem. Get some wellies and good waterproofs and you're fine. Nothing makes you feel more alive than a howling SWly gale and torrential driving rain lashing horizontal into you.

My favourite weather though is freezing cold and snow. But if we can't have that mild, wet and windy is good enough.

[La Bise]

Also regarding Glacier Point saying that a mild or even very February is likely from teleconnection signals is it true that he predicts a settled spell with HP just to the south of the UK with mild days but cold (and frosty!) nights would be more likely than raging zonality, would we be looking at a setup similar too February 2008 or late March 2009

I did ask that to GP, if we are talking mild in feb, it seems to be a likely setup and a repeat of Feb 2008 mid-month would be lovely...

Barb, I don't go up hills in t-shirts and trackies you know, I've got all the waterproof kit one can need (bar the wellies...) and I don't mind the odd roaring gale and driving rain but not the levels of Nov 09, that was just relentless. Agreed it certainly gives you a sense of being alive but I prefer to derive that feeling from a cloudless, moonlit, frozen night hike if you don't mind

[Eugene]

lol i just love everytime a cold model run is output people say it doesn't look right etc, so what was the last month then a figment of my imagination

Looks completely plausible to me even if it doesn't come off.