Cold Spell Discussion

[sandstorm2]

Having been lucky enough to have lived through the 62/63 freeze, I was 12 years old and, every day we were away sledging and ice skating on the local duck pond after school till well after it was dark, it doesn't really compare to the recent cold spell because the severity of the cold went on for so long, best part of 3 months, not 3 or 4 weeks. There was also a lot of damage done during 62/63 through water mains freezing and building regulations were changed because of that winter.

People also lost there lives, and remember it was really in the days before central heating was common, most families spent their time huddled around the one and only coal fire.

Getting up in the mornings was an endurance test when you were faced with magnificent patterns of ice on the inside of bedroom windows.

The latest cold spell showed promise but was never anywhere near 62/63.

Funny thing was my dad would tell me that this was nothing compared to 47!

SS2

SS2

[SnowBear]

Having been lucky enough to have lived through the 62/63 freeze, ......

Hehehe, I am not old enough to remember '63, but do remember in the 70's staying at my grandparents house as a child, and having half inch thick ice on the inside of the windows, and the room so cold you see your breath. No duvets then, old style blankets etc, and the bed warmed in places by a stone water bottle and those terribly dangerous bed warmers which had a heater light bulb in a cage, plugged into the lighting circuit! It was always a bit of a game to try and get into bed, and find the warmest part as quick as possible and avoid the unheated parts like the plague.

The warmest room in the house, and where everyone made a bee line for in the morning was the kitchen where the range was always alight and the bread would be baking for the day.

Today? If people even so much as have to put a jumper on in a house they moan like heck.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

As I was driving to my mum's for lunch yesterday (which I thought was a little overcooked), I noticed this on the side of Murton Pike. I wouldn't know what else to call it but an avalanche. Of course, I only had my rubbishy Blackberry camera, but you can just make it out.

Alpine.

[dodge]

Murton Pike. Does that belong to the Pennine chain or is it the Cumbrian fells. Does look like some slippage of sort.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

It's part of the Pennines, just beneath the Cross Fell bit. I walked along the road later on in the day, and the depth of snow either side of the slip was easily 4ft deep, so it must have been a hollow or some sort and drifted. You could see the scours on the ground where it had slipped...would loved to have seen it go.

[La Bise]

One of the most amazing landscapes in the UK is in that area, High Cup Nick/Gill...must have been quite a sight in the snow.

[dogs32]

Tonight:

Rain slowly moving northeast, becoming heavy at times and turning to snow across parts of Wales and central England by dawn. Elsewhere cloudy and windy with some patchy light rain.

Wednesday:

Cloudy with rain, heaviest in the south and west, but falling as snow across parts of central and southern England as well as parts of Wales.

Updated: 0300 on Tue 19 Jan 2010

[grab my graupel]

Very cold here with temperatures around -3c, with frost, fog and black Ice.

The roads are extremely dangerous this morning

[Downpour]

I certainly haven't forgotten them as I actually saved a few posts!

The point im making is the change in the model output these past 48hrs isn't actually that surprising because we see the models regularly blast any blocking away. However some failed to see this because they were relying on the models instead of using experience/instinct. Im not having a pop at anyone im just saying at times we need to use forecasing instinct when viewing certain pattterns on the models. What you call hopecasting I call instinct!!

Back to the models and there is no doubt the GEM is the pick of the bunch. However I still feel +144 is very uncertain at the moment as this mornings 0Zs prove. However an E,ly is looking increasingly likely but its what happens beyond that is more uncertain.

ECM ensembles just come out and these are amazing compared to 36hrs ago. The Sunday 12Z run had hardly any cold members and now we see a massive cluster of these with very few mild members!

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

Amazingly the Seagulls could yet prove more reliable than the models and some forecasters!

aha! So it was seagulls! I have been away in Cumbria/Northumberland recently and missed it. What sort of behaviour do said gulls exhibit when they feel El Beast is due a visit?

[andymusic]

I love the seagulls idea - seems we've all lost faith in our computer models - about a day or so ago mind you a lot on here were wondering if the models would (as if by magic) - suddenly pull the preverbial rabbit out of the hat and out of this "no mans land" - produce a surprise - again a lot seem to be able to see in past cold events that the cold can emerge pretty darn quickly from nowhere and this seems to be happening right now! - well, back into the freezer it seems we go - and Joe B's prediction for around the 25th Jan for more cold seems to be coming to fruition!

[Ben_Cambs]

I love the seagulls idea - seems we've all lost faith in our computer models - about a day or so ago mind you a lot on here were wondering if the models would (as if by magic) - suddenly pull the preverbial rabbit out of the hat and out of this "no mans land" - produce a surprise - again a lot seem to be able to see in past cold events that the cold can emerge pretty darn quickly from nowhere and this seems to be happening right now! - well, back into the freezer it seems we go - and Joe B's prediction for around the 25th Jan for more cold seems to be coming to fruition!

The GFS 06z shows a big BEASTERLY! But I expect a slightly less colder 12z!

[Tim Bland]

I tend to agree TWS, the gfs 06hrs whilst great to look at is still not the most favoured outcome, it comes to something when i can't even trust its output at only 96hrs! Theres just too much uncertainty at the moment especially with the UKMO 00hrs run which looks very un-enthusiastic, i think high pressure closeby looks like a good call but to get to the gfs 06hrs requires alot to go right in the earlier stages, the way it halts the front sends the low nw at the same time developing a shortwave digging se'wards requires a leap of faith!

I will be very interested to see the UKMO further outlook today, just what will they come up with given the model uncertainty.

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Jan 2010 to Tuesday 2 Feb 2010:

Rather cloudy for many parts, with showers or longer spells of sleet or snow likely in the east and over high ground at first, with outbreaks of light rain further west. From Wednesday (27th) wintry showers are expected to ease in the east, with rain, sleet or snow developing across western and northwestern parts. Temperatures are expected to be below normal, and perhaps very cold in the east, with overnight frosts likely and an associated risk of ice in places. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the end of the period, but a continuation of unsettled weather is likely with spells of rain, sleet and snow, and a risk of strong to gale force winds mainly across western parts. Temperatures probably remaining below normal.

Updated: 1226 on Tue 19 Jan 2010

[Tim Bland]

Lates from the Met!

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Jan 2010 to Tuesday 2 Feb 2010:

Rather cloudy for many parts, with showers or longer spells of sleet or snow likely in the east and over high ground at first, with outbreaks of light rain further west. From Wednesday (27th) wintry showers are expected to ease in the east, with rain, sleet or snow developing across western and northwestern parts. Temperatures are expected to be below normal, and perhaps very cold in the east, with overnight frosts likely and an associated risk of ice in places. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the end of the period, but a continuation of unsettled weather is likely with spells of rain, sleet and snow, and a risk of strong to gale force winds mainly across western parts. Temperatures probably remaining below normal.

Updated: 1226 on Tue 19 Jan 2010

[Climate Man]

The colder trend has developed over the last 36hrs especially with the ECM ensembles, its operational runs have also trended that way, the GEM has also picked up on this, the GFS has been a little up and down but overall has trended that way, it's still a problem though that the UKMO 00hrs has reverted back to its outlook of yesterdays 00hrs run, the problem for the UKMO is that they don't have their own ensembles but have to take into account the ECM, just because they generally disagree with the UKMO raw output doesn't mean the UKMO operational run is wrong, thats why until that comes on board i will have low confidence even in their further outlook today and certainly we can't ignore it, if it was a cannon fodder model i would happily dismiss it but its a very good model so i think people need to keep their expectations low until that moves towards the ECM and GFS.

Agreed, I know that that the METO need to cover their backs but thay must have good reason to ignore their output and go with others

[MKN]

It seems to me that the snow potential tomorrow seems to be getting pushed further and further south west, If this occurs then i think for the larger area of precip due to move in friday/sat would have a good chance of falling as snow for those that may miss out on anything that falls wednesday.

[Tom D]

Hope the MOD's don't mind me saying that the last update from Michael Fish indicated a block to the West and cold filtering in. This is simply amazing as the GEM 00Z & GFS 06Z have picked up on what the legend Michael Fish said a few days ago

I think it goes to show that the experience of a level-headed meteorologist out performs most of the supercomputers that so many seem to put their faith into.

[The Weather Dragon]

Just look at the overall trends & use your instincts & experience - we are heading for a wintry last week in January continuing into early Feb. As with any cold scenario the detail will be sketchy until a day or even hours before.

[dodge]

It seems to me that the snow potential tomorrow seems to be getting pushed further and further south west, If this occurs then i think for the larger area of precip due to move in friday/sat would have a good chance of falling as snow for those that may miss out on anything that falls wednesday.

Possibly, it certainly doesn't look like the knockout blow from the West that was being progged a few days ago. Could the Cold East be bouncing off the ropes and fighting back I wonder?

Will have to see how future model runs play it out. I'm not expecting too much in the way of precipitation to reach it this far North on Wednesday, but it does seem an upgrade for more Central area's and through mid wales.

[Argyllcraig]

Would love that easterly to come back in and stall the front over us in the west...

must admit though that i dont really mind this 'mild' spell, we still havnt got above 4c here! brilliant since when was 4c mild lol? although i guess compared to the cold we have had across us for now for about the last 7 weeks up here then 4c is a tad warmer.

would love the mega cold back though.

[NorthantsSnow]

Keep an eye on Saturday. If the GFS is right a heavy snow event is likely and up to 10cm possible quite widely, perhaps more locally.

http://209.197.11.170/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20100119/06/96/prectypeuktopo.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=0f368a9b446331ea443331ba95f63af1d0e68673&dopsig=7ddc6193e826b36669af7f8fac2a6ce4

[snow raven]

Who needs weather models, when we have seagulls and Daffy Duck's Quackbusters to let us know if its going to snow or not

[Winter Monsoon]

Cant beat a few hundred thousand years of evolution really in regards to the seagulls. I bet they are more accurate than we are. Just like dogs and cats going nuts before thunderstorms arrive or earthquakes.

Look at how geese migrate...no maps no compass no Gps and yet time after time they get to the same place every year. This winter i have seen more migrating birds than the last 10 years.

I know its not model related but there are truths in what TEITS suggests.

So if the 12z comes up with similar output to the 06z can we start to get excited?

Crikey that got moved quick...sorry mods

[nick sussex]

Considering the possible snow tomorrow/Friday they have been more accurate than some!

Im still of the opinion that the front on Friday has more potential than tomorrow especially if the GFS continues with the trend.

Just seen TWS post. Let me just say that back in Jan 1987 there was a swarm of Seagulls in my area. The very same day I spotted this was the day the BBC warned of the impending E,ly. Exactly the same happened again in Feb 91!

I do fear this seagull thing is going to run and run! IMO nature is reactive not pro-active in terms of weather but that's just my view, there are cases though of animals especially picking up on seismic activity etc but if a bunch of super computers can't cope at T-96hrs then I doubt the poor old seagull would! actually i can't stand the things, i hope they freeze during the possible upcoming severe easterly!!!

[Buzzit]

The Seagull rule is as follows (actually applies to almost all seabirds)

1) Everything is fine if they spend most of their time offshore

2) If they are just offshore huddled in groups it generally means wind / storm

3) If they are inland it generally means that conditions are already bad or going to get worse from the direction they are inland from

[Thundery wintry showers]

Just seen TWS post. Let me just say that back in Jan 1987 there was a swarm of Seagulls in my area. The very same day I spotted this was the day the BBC warned of the impending E,ly. Exactly the same happened again in Feb 91!

Yes, indeed. And back in Dec 1993, Daffy Duck's Quackbusters was broadcast on the TV, and my parents taped it, and I watched it over Christmas. There was a snow cover in the Tyne & Wear area on Christmas afternoon that year. Much the same thing happened in 1995, when again Daffy Duck's Quackbusters was broadcast and we taped it, as the previous tape had been lost. Christmas Day 1995 was a white one in Tyneside by any definition, with 2-3 inches of snow and frequent blowing snow showers during the day.

In the other years between 1993 and 2008 inclusive, Daffy Duck's Quackbusters was not broadcast, and there was no snow cover on Christmas Day (yes there were a few technical bookies' "whtie Christmasses" with five-minute sleet flurries, but as far as I'm concerned the bookies' definition is nonsense).

And in 2009? Daffy Duck's Quackbusters was not broadcast, and in Cleadon we had... a 2cm snow/ice cover on Christmas Day. Oops...

The phrase that springs to mind is, "correlation does not necessarily imply causation".