Cold Spell Discussion

[Richard Lake]

Le sigh... the signs of winter returning are always 4 days ahead...

[Eugene]

Yes i agree rikki always more than 4 days away since last friday(two days ago in parts), i guess you were living under a rock during the month long cold spell

[Eugene]

Actually we are both wrong rikki, looks like turning wintry sunday night into monday, doesnt matter how long it lasts, point is its wintry.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack2.gif

[john mac]

Actually we are both wrong rikki, looks like turning wintry sunday night into monday, doesnt matter how long it lasts, point is its wintry.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/brack2.gif

I agree with you Eugene, the beeb have snow showers affecting eastern scotland and Northern England on sunday before the easterly kicks in to EA & SE England on monday.

[cold snap]

Okay think of it like this.

If all we had was just a T.V set we all would be buzzing right now.

If UKMO want a easterly its fine by me.

Edited January 22, 2010 by cold snap

[Peter Henderson]

Haha, for the first time ever in winter I don't actually care what happens. I'd quite like some sunshine actually, maybe a bit of frost. We had so much snow over christmas etc that I'm not bothered if we don't see any until next year.

Kind of feel the same way. I'm going out next Friday evening and I don't fancy driving in either ice or snow after my near miss and 180 degree turn this day two weeks ago. I've had my snow and I'm happy now !

Edited January 22, 2010 by Peter Henderson

[andymusic]

The Meto is the British chief meteorogical body and the nations prime weather forecaster, they have a huge responsibility and can not afford to make mistakes especially when it comes to short term or nowcasting, they will give very careful consideration to any forecast. So when people say they are being very bullish, don't think that there forecasts have been thought of without due consideration. For this reason you have to respect the Meto, however, much you may dismiss there forecasts especially as I say when it comes to short-term/nowcasting. They talked about Wednesdays snow in Wales/Midlands 4 days ahead and they were right with there prediction in what was a very marginal situation.

There seems to be an air of dismissing and ridiculing the Meto at the moment just because they are not siding with the other models. It seems people only take notice of the ECM and GFS these days which if anything yoyo about the place much more than the UKMO.

Back to the forecasts, I cam see an easterly lasting till tuesday as shown by the UKMO and then for heights to sink south into Europe. As I said earlier too far to call what may happen with respect to any northerly. I'm certainly not writing off a potent northerly later next week as others seem to be doing, I think it is only a matter of time that we see a potent northerly aided by a negative trending AO/NAO upstream teleconnections seem favourable, there may be an initial stutter but eventually we'll get there in early Feb..

The Meto before this week have been all over the place with there forecasting unfortunately! - BBQ summer last year - mild winter for 2009/2010 - and other quite obvious medium term clangers/ even a recent short term clanger which made everyone panic buy food and supplies and then the snow never arrived - so they haven't been very good at all until this week

meto and BBC are going for an easterly all next week (not the best direction for us in Wales to get snow unless an atlantic low comes in from the south west) - weird thing is the models really aren't showing this right now - so - theories -

The Meto/BBC are using a brand new computer model we don't know about!

The Meto/BBC have taken on a new tea boy and allowed him to come up with the forecasts!

The Meto/BBC have sacked a few of their old scientists and taken on some new ones and are now getting forecasts correct!

The Meto/BBC have decided to try other forms of forecasting such as a gypsy reading a crystal ball!

I'm only saying this because as from this week - last wednesday's snow was forecast as a warning five days before it happened and it was a marginal event - this sort of forecasting has never even happened before with the meto in such detail with such confidence - before this they were floundering all over the place so something has changed - and this insistence that we are having an easterly all this next week seems very over confident considering the models we can see are not showing this!

Edited January 22, 2010 by andymusic

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

The Meto before this week have been all over the place with there forecasting unfortunately! - BBQ summer last year - mild winter for 2009/2010 - and other quite obvious medium term clangers/ even a recent short term clanger which made everyone panic buy food and supplies and then the snow never arrived - so they haven't been very good at all until this week

meto and BBC are going for an easterly all next week (not the best direction for us in Wales to get snow unless an atlantic low comes in from the south west) - weird thing is the models really aren't showing this right now - so - theories -

The Meto/BBC are using a brand new computer model we don't know about!

The Meto/BBC have taken on a new tea boy and allowed him to come up with the forecasts!

The Meto/BBC have sacked a few of their old scientists and taken on some new ones and are now getting forecasts correct!

The Meto/BBC have decided to try other forms of forecasting such as a gypsy reading a crystal ball!

I'm only saying this because as from this week - last wednesday's snow was forecast as a warning five days before it happened and it was a marginal event - this sort of forecasting has never even happened before with the meto in such detail with such confidence - before this they were floundering all over the place so something has changed - and this insistence that we are having an easterly all this next week seems very over confident considering the models we can see are not showing this!

Our bbc legend Mr Hudson said that an easterly was possible but was by no means guarenteed. He also mentioned that it would by fairly short lived. Just to add that our local ITV forecaster mentioned something very similar. Mr Hudosn said that it was very rare to have such uncertaintly for events as near as Mondays forecast. I really want to back the metoffice on this one, snow would be great before the sun gets too much strength. I guess we will know pretty soon.

Edited January 22, 2010 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[La Bise]

In light of what the 18z is showing, maybe the pub run is their secret weapon....

[yamkin]

The Meto before this week have been all over the place with there forecasting unfortunately! - BBQ summer last year - mild winter for 2009/2010 - and other quite obvious medium term clangers/ even a recent short term clanger which made everyone panic buy food and supplies and then the snow never arrived - so they haven't been very good at all until this week

meto and BBC are going for an easterly all next week (not the best direction for us in Wales to get snow unless an atlantic low comes in from the south west) - weird thing is the models really aren't showing this right now - so - theories -

The Meto/BBC are using a brand new computer model we don't know about!

The Meto/BBC have taken on a new tea boy and allowed him to come up with the forecasts!

The Meto/BBC have sacked a few of their old scientists and taken on some new ones and are now getting forecasts correct!

The Meto/BBC have decided to try other forms of forecasting such as a gypsy reading a crystal ball!

I'm only saying this because as from this week - last wednesday's snow was forecast as a warning five days before it happened and it was a marginal event - this sort of forecasting has never even happened before with the meto in such detail with such confidence - before this they were floundering all over the place so something has changed - and this insistence that we are having an easterly all this next week seems very over confident considering the models we can see are not showing this!

Fantastic post You really made me laugh To add to your list, can you imagine if the MetO have asked the legend crew e.g Ian McAskill, Michael Fish, Bill Giles & co to help them out :(

[Bobby]

Notice how the Met Office and BBC are laughed at when they talk of mild yet they have divine insight as soon as they mention cold?

I love cold and snow as much as anyone but let's be realistic and objective.

<_<

Edited January 22, 2010 by Barb-

[ZONE 51]

ive noticed a couple of models indicating a nl'y blast on 29th way off yet tho.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I certainly wouldnt mind a northerly toppler, I often do very well from them if it lasts 2-3 days

3-5 Feb 2003

25-26 Dec 2004

1-2 Feb 2008

19-21 Mar 2007

often gives me decent snow through the cheshire gap, much better than the 17-22 Dec period

Edited January 23, 2010 by mark forster 630

[ZONE 51]

heres an interesting article about the met office and models mail online

[john mac]

Well if anyone wants lots of snow and cold go to Levi in lapland. Ive been there and its fantastic, its -17.6c today and theres 2ft of snow

[mickeyflyn]

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/153617/Fresh-big-freeze-is-on-its-way take a look at this chaps!!

[NW Leeds Russ]

http://www.express.c...e-is-on-its-way take a look at this chaps!!

That is typical express. They run that headline every time FI comes in at +144hrs.

Must be secret GFS watchers I think.....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/153617/Fresh-big-freeze-is-on-its-way take a look at this chaps!!

sadly ppl I know will believe this, certainly no storm next weekend, more like a mild NW'ly, and a very mild 1st week at least of Feb is the realistic outcome, try to tell people express talks b**ls

Edited January 23, 2010 by mark forster 630

[Ripeberry]

Why would the Daily Express even waste ink on this non-story? One guy says it will be cold, the other

says it will be mild. Let the battle commence

[Sno' problem]

heres an interesting article about the met office and models mail online

Relating to the article, to quote the Mail: "But most worrying of all has been this week's revelation that, after 90 years, the BBC is putting the Met Office's contract out to tender and considering rival bids from other forecasters (including Metra, the national forecaster for New Zealand that brought us the 3D weather map that made us all seasick when it was introduced in 2005) to ensure 'best value for money'."

I think it would be a disaster for the Met Office to lose it's contract with the BBC.

We already have fairly diluted forecasts on the BBC, with most of us waiting for the Countryfile forecast for the one properly in-depth forecast so, although we always bemoan the Met Office, what would the forecasts be like if they are looking for the most cost effective answer?

The forecasters at the Met Office have an intimate knowledge of the British weather, and yes they do make mistakes, but a New Zealand company doing our forecasts???

It is very worrying in my view, I would hate to see the link between the two go.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Relating to the article, to quote the Mail: "But most worrying of all has been this week's revelation that, after 90 years, the BBC is putting the Met Office's contract out to tender and considering rival bids from other forecasters (including Metra, the national forecaster for New Zealand that brought us the 3D weather map that made us all seasick when it was introduced in 2005) to ensure 'best value for money'."

I think it would be a disaster for the Met Office to lose it's contract with the BBC.

We already have fairly diluted forecasts on the BBC, with most of us waiting for the Countryfile forecast for the one properly in-depth forecast so, although we always bemoan the Met Office, what would the forecasts be like if they are looking for the most cost effective answer?

The forecasters at the Met Office have an intimate knowledge of the British weather, and yes they do make mistakes, but a New Zealand company doing our forecasts???

It is very worrying in my view, I would hate to see the link between the two go.

Perhaps Netweather could go for it?? It would certainly be more accurate than the current beeb forecasts!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Good to see a well-reasoned media article written by someone who has been to the Met Office. Of course the conclusion, "it would be a disaster to lose the contract

I've expressed my overall stance on the BBC's current forecasts on the media thread relating to the BBC's contract with the MetO. The general verdict is I think they are still significantly superior to the ITV forecasts, but have shown a marked move towards the ITV style over the last decade, with a strong sense of tailoring forecasts to assumed viewer demographics at certain times of the day (they call this moving away from the "one size fits all" approach). The one exception is Countryfile as Sno'problem mentions above- personally I think there's a strong argument that those forecasts may be better than ever these days.

If we lose the ties with the MetO there is no guarantee in the long run that we'll get qualified presenters doing the BBC weather, and to produce forecasts like today's Countryfile forecasts you need good quality presenters.

I can't be sure of whether any of the other companies would do a better job than the MetO- there's a chance a few of them might do slightly better, but there's a high risk of some of them doing a lot worse and contributing to the dumbing down.

[Liam J]

could be a snow event tonight, mainly on high ground in the north, 528 dam and 850's around -5c with low ground temps im only 70m asl and its 2.5c dp point still high at 1.5c but could turn wintry if there is any heavier bursts from the developing shallow low...

NW seen the potential with the current watch issued.

Edited January 23, 2010 by james12

[Peter Henderson]

I've noticed the BBC have been forcasting the cold weather to return for a couple of weeks now, but so far nothing has materialized. Looking at the Ceefax forcasts for Europe, there does seem to be some really cold weather not that far away, with eastern europe being particularly cold. It'll be interesting to see what the BBC's forcast for the week ahead say this morning.

Anyone know what's happened to ITV teletext weather (both digital and analogue ?). The weather section appears to have vanished (along with most of the rest of the service).

[NW Leeds Russ]

I've noticed the BBC have been forcasting the cold weather to return for a couple of weeks now, but so far nothing has materialized. Looking at the Ceefax forcasts for Europe, there does seem to be some really cold weather not that far away, with eastern europe being particularly cold. It'll be interesting to see what the BBC's forcast for the week ahead say this morning.

Anyone know what's happened to ITV teletext weather (both digital and analogue ?). The weather section appears to have vanished (along with most of the rest of the service).

ITV have downgraded their text services which is a real shame. Analogue text in my opinion is way better than digital.

Still got bbc pages 401 - 416 to surf though