Cold Spell Discussion

[Rich44]

Look TEITS obviously thinks it works for him - Great

Others think otherwise - Great

Can we leave it alone this is supposed to be about the weather and discussion thereof and I am getting thoroughly sick and tired of people sniping about their own "techniques" or this is going to turn into the old BBC weather forums and I stopped going there for that very reason

Edited January 19, 2010 by Rich44

[Lynxus]

I fail to understand where this "snow" could come from.

The ECM is showing it and GFS shows it as snow also. Its like 8c here at the moment?

Is there supposed to be some kind of easterly pushing in? or has the western low got caught up in some cold air further NW?

[snowingtequila]

The Seagull rule is as follows (actually applies to almost all seabirds)

1) Everything is fine if they spend most of their time offshore

2) If they are just offshore huddled in groups it generally means wind / storm

3) If they are inland it generally means that conditions are already bad or going to get worse from the direction they are inland from

what if the seagulls have moved permantly inland is this a signal of something.

I actually think it is easy to mock the seagull thing when it may have some truth to it.

[Iceni]

I do fear this seagull thing is going to run and run! IMO nature is reactive not pro-active in terms of weather but that's just my view, there are cases though of animals especially picking up on seismic activity etc but if a bunch of super computers can't cope at T-96hrs then I doubt the poor old seagull would! actually i can't stand the things, i hope they freeze during the possible upcoming severe easterly!!!

Surely seagulls (which have evolved over millenia) are more closely in tune with how nature works than a set of computer models (however powerful) which have only been around for the last 15 years?

I'll bet TEITS is beginning to regret sharing his secret with us, but I don't see why he should. I used to work for a scientific journal and they all pooh-poohed my story about my dog who used to get excited when I rang from the station to say I needed collecting. Even if someone else phoned within the couple of hours either way, he'd still only come into to the hall when it was my call and this was before anyone had answered it.

My present dog hates thunderstorms and gets very agitated if we say the words 'thunder' or 'boom booms' even if there isn't a storm happening or imminent — the last couple of years though he gets frightened if we say the word 'rain' or 'it's raining' — so he's connected the word 'rain' with 'thunder' (which is what generally happens in a storm) although he's not scared of rain itself. Animals are amazing.

[Ben_Cambs]

Cant beat a few hundred thousand years of evolution really in regards to the seagulls. I bet they are more accurate than we are. Just like dogs and cats going nuts before thunderstorms arrive or earthquakes.

Look at how geese migrate...no maps no compass no Gps and yet time after time they get to the same place every year. This winter i have seen more migrating birds than the last 10 years.

I know its not model related but there are truths in what TEITS suggests.

So if the 12z comes up with similar output to the 06z can we start to get excited?

Crikey that got moved quick...sorry mods

Well, this has only started on 2 models on 2 runs, (GEM 00z, and GFS 06z), but if other models such as ECM and UKMO follow or have similar ideas to these runs today, then a possible trend could start to develop, and things could get very interesting

[full_frontal_occlusion]

I do fear this seagull thing is going to run and run! IMO nature is reactive not pro-active in terms of weather but that's just my view, there are cases though of animals especially picking up on seismic activity etc but if a bunch of super computers can't cope at T-96hrs then I doubt the poor old seagull would! actually i can't stand the things, i hope they freeze during the possible upcoming severe easterly!!!

I've watched the model thread since it began and although I'm no weather guru, I do have signficant interest in the science and maths behind the models and in particuar lrf techniques.

It strikes me though that precious few NW posters use rigorous methods and experience (or even know how) to correctly predict with better than 50:50 chance, medium range and beyond.

Even fewer are prepared to stick their necks out and make lr predictions (whatever method they use)and then stick by them.

The ones that do are brave souls and have my respect.

Let's face it, models (and seagulls) are indicators only and are nowhere near the point where proven experience can be replaced.

ffO.

Edited January 19, 2010 by full_frontal_occlusion

[snowlover2009]

havent been on here long, but the models soon flipped towards a cold spell and deep freeze again. i am so shocked at the models and can hardly believe we could end up with a re run of the last cold spell. fridays temps have been downgraded too, which is a joy so i don't have to be out at 9c what is predicted here, very balmy, but if gfs is right it may only be 4c. cannot belive that we could be on the very of our next cold spell starting at the weekend, although its cold out now,there is a blip to come with this battle first before the cold really comes our way and the beast is really unleashed. just how cold could it get? is there any chance of it being worse than the last spell of deep freeze weather?

[Southender]

Eyes down for the 12z GFS.

It obviously will not show the deep freeze the earlier run showed this morning.

Let's settle for the trend to colder conditions instead.

[Alex95]

The 12z is already majorly different just 24 hours away having the front over the Midlands and much furtehr east in general.

There are only very slight differences so far, it is by no means 'majorly different'.

Eyes down for the 12z GFS.

It obviously will not show the deep freeze the earlier run showed this morning.

Let's settle for the trend to colder conditions instead.

How can you tell this at this early stage? Imo it is very likely that an easterly of some description will be shown, whether it be the deep freeze of the 6z or something less intense.

Edited January 19, 2010 by alza

[Alex95]

IMO there this weekend is nailed now with southerly winds over the UK, an Atlantic low out west and the Scandinavian high to the east. From that there will be 3 possible outcomes:

1) Atlantic low wins after a struggle, wet and mild afterwards.

This is quite unlikely to happen.

2) The Scandinavian high will just about win with winds coming from an E to SE direction, not much snow but plenty of cold, dull weather.

This is the most likely scenario.

3) The Scandinavian high wins with E to ENE winds and loads of snow and severe cold.

Quite unlikely, requires the very cold uppers to move in from the E.

I think number 2 is most likely to come off, yes there will be E winds but the orientation of the high will mean we miss out on most of the snow, and after a few days it could easily sink.

EDIT: The 12z is looking like showing something in between 2 and 3.

EDIT2: I posted this is the model output thread but it got moved, best just leave it here.

Edited January 19, 2010 by alza

[Stu_London]

I am often extremely impressed with the experience and professionalism you people have in relation to our weather. I try very hard to follow and try to understand the 'ensembles', 'runs' etc that you all refer to and the UKMO's outlook and predictions, But, I would back you anyday and seriously think you should apply, as a group possibly, for the post at the UKMO.

I am still of the opinion, after following your views based on the models etc and your own opinions that we are very likely to see another winter of '82' coming up. I say this based on my own experience of that winter and the similar trends to what we have seen so far, and to your own opinions. P.S.....I did NOT mention any seagulls , but my cat has been behaving strangely since our first bout of nasty weather hit us.

If you are expecting a winter like 82, then it will probably be a mild affair from here on in.

Dec 1981 - 0.3C

Jan 1982 - 2.6C (cold first half - mild second half)

Feb 1982 - 4.8C

It's probably not the message you were meaning to get across but apart from Dec 81 being colder earlier and more severe overall, it's not a bad pattern match both in terms of the temperatures and the evolution of the start of the cold weather synoptically.

Ironically, during Feb 1982, pressure was often high to the east, but didn't really influence the UK that much which is a possible outcome we have in 2010.

[johncoolj]

Do you think the cold air will reach dublin ireland?

If so what temps and do you think it will last long or will the west win the war once again

[snowdrifter]

Exactly! To be honest, I would even settle for cold and dry after all the snow we've had recently! Also, the possibility of a sub 2c CET month is enough to excite me!

Karyo

I would agree also. Just before the last cold spell (not that its exactly warm today!), I made a daft post about wanting snow not merely cold. It was misguided (as politely pointed out by other posters) because snow is a non-starter without cold and often non-forecastable even when the cold is almsot on one's doorstep. Perhaps one difference certainly here in the NW is that our snow came from major a major trough coming from the north, and it was wonderful. For an easterly to produce more than cold we here need ppn to cross the Penines or meet with a stalling front, which UKMO's further outlook has hinted at today. I hope for coldies eveywhere that winter has more up its sleeve. (Be gentle if there are any major errors in there - I'm a major enthustastic amateur who's been on here for many years, and despite learning a lot still lack confidence in posting anything that sounds knowledgeable!)

[chilly milly]

The Seagull rule is as follows (actually applies to almost all seabirds)

1) Everything is fine if they spend most of their time offshore

2) If they are just offshore huddled in groups it generally means wind / storm

3) If they are inland it generally means that conditions are already bad or going to get worse from the direction they are inland from

We saw seagulls in Stevenage during the last cold spell.

Just my twopennorths worth.

[Thunder Snow]

Ive Updated my forecast

[SnowAngel]

Not just seagulls. I was prewarned there might be a cold winter by the massive glut of hazlenuts, hawthorn and holly berries this year, as if nature was stocking up for the birds.

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Whilst i fully accept that the snow risk for tonight and tomorrow has all but gone For My Back Yard and this is backed up by the latest message to Lancashire NHS workers today -

Subject: Snow risk Wednesday - Met Office update

"24 hours on and the prospects for any disruptive snow across the region

tomorrow have diminshed to virtually zero with the weather system

responsible now expected to stall further west than originally

predicted, before sliding away SE'wards. Yesterday's Advisory update had

restricted the threat to Cheshire but the latest forecast, whilst still

hinting at a little patchy rain/sleet/wet snow possibly getting into

Western Cheshire and even parts of Merseyside at the back end of tonight

and into tomorrow morning, is playing down the risk even further with no

accumulations now expected in these areas. Hence it should be business

as usual across the NW tomorrow with most areas staying dry altogether.

Still on for a good swathe of rain to cross all areas during Thursday

evening and Thursday night.

Will update you only if the forecast changes markedly,"

What i don't get is why Bradford Met Council are this evening out throwing grit around on the roads like confetti at a film stars wedding and on who's say so? Surly they would be better off saving it for early next week :lol:

[Timmytour]

Does the arrival Seagulls herald cold weather or rich pickings for the birds as an impending thaw sets in. I saw plenty of seagulls but only towards the end of the cold spell of weather we had

[Snowyowl9]

Hotspot area for snow again.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/24_30.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/30_35.gif

Max temps cold.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn3017.png

Min temps colder.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn4217.png

Max temps thursday before next system comes in still cold SE wind.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn5417.png

[Skyhi]

If you are expecting a winter like 82, then it will probably be a mild affair from here on in.

Dec 1981 - 0.3C

Jan 1982 - 2.6C (cold first half - mild second half)

Feb 1982 - 4.8C

It's probably not the message you were meaning to get across but apart from Dec 81 being colder earlier and more severe overall, it's not a bad pattern match both in terms of the temperatures and the evolution of the start of the cold weather synoptically.

Ironically, during Feb 1982, pressure was often high to the east, but didn't really influence the UK that much which is a possible outcome we have in 2010.

Thank you for responding, however, I am not sure where you got those temps from, I lived in south wales at the time and it was very, very cold for a considerable length of time with high snow drifts all over the place. It was so cold with blizzards that made the snow stick to the windows!!!! (amongst other places!!), but I'm gonna stick to my guns here.....theres a beast from the east who's been barking on our doorstep for way too long to give up now!!

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Hotspot area for snow again.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/24_30.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/30_35.gif

Max temps cold.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn3017.png

Min temps colder.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn4217.png

Max temps thursday before next system comes in still cold SE wind.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn5417.png

Can't open your first two links so not sure where youe sweet spot is, but what i will say is that the most recent NAE and METO precip charts have shunted the precip further north east by about 50-100 miles... If this happened again on the 00z then Bradford council wouldn't be too far off the mark

[PubliusEnigma]

The Sunday/Monday event was heavily modified by the warming effects of the long air track over the warm North Sea. An ENE'ly or NE'ly is great news for cold/snow lovers if the airmass is unstable and cold, bringing repeated heavy snowfalls to eastern areas (as we saw during 17/18 December and again during the first nine days of January). But as soon as the word "marginal" creeps in, the long track over the sea tends to result in sleet or rain for many.

Notably, the warming effects of the North Sea had largely tapered off by the time the airmass reached south-west England and that's why many parts of that region saw lying snow from the event.

This event has an input of continental air with a much shorter sea track, and therefore, although the uppers are warmer, there is less airmass modification and so temperatures are generally lower.

to further add to this post to my mind, more crucially, during the event you describe during (Sunday 10th), the upper level warm front, came about as a result of its origins.

Whislt it approached from the east and was expected to bring a snow event, its associated Low formed over Greece and swept North East into the Black sea then North into Eurasia before beginning to track west over Ukraine. You may or may not know that during our recent mini freeze, Greece, Cyprus and turkey have beeen enjoying record breaking

high temps of 27oC in Cyprus !! So thats a hell of a lot of warmth to dissipate, even when facing the big freeze which was taking place over NW Europe. So it pretty much balaned things out, and the warmish North Sea dealt the death knell for any chance of a widespread event. The Warm front, one should differentiate from the seperate and stationary low that caused the massive snow storm in Germany in the preceding days, in so far as the warm front or warm air/sector rode around the top of the German Cyclone.

[disco-barry]

TBH Haworth guy, it's pointless the snow tomorrow as it will melt straight away....Only really interested in long lasting snow now.

[PubliusEnigma]

Surely seagulls (which have evolved over millenia) are more closely in tune with how nature works than a set of computer models (however powerful) which have only been around for the last 15 years?

I'll bet TEITS is beginning to regret sharing his secret with us, but I don't see why he should. I used to work for a scientific journal and they all pooh-poohed my story about my dog who used to get excited when I rang from the station to say I needed collecting. Even if someone else phoned within the couple of hours either way, he'd still only come into to the hall when it was my call and this was before anyone had answered it.

My present dog hates thunderstorms and gets very agitated if we say the words 'thunder' or 'boom booms' even if there isn't a storm happening or imminent — the last couple of years though he gets frightened if we say the word 'rain' or 'it's raining' — so he's connected the word 'rain' with 'thunder' (which is what generally happens in a storm) although he's not scared of rain itself. Animals are amazing.

I agree. There is some chap called Ben/Bill ?Farkin over on Met monkey who swears by some kind of duck, or goose or something, and he makes his forecasts based on their

activity. I have to say there are plenty of seagulls around here still !

[Snowyowl9]

Can't open your first two links so not sure where youe sweet spot is, but what i will say is that the most recent NAE and METO precip charts have shunted the precip further north east by about 50-100 miles... If this happened again on the 00z then Bradford council wouldn't be too far off the mark :clap

The first 2 links do work they may of gone offline briefly.

That wet`windy friday morning will melt the snow but if we can get a cold HP over us something we havn`t had this winter yet the remaining snow should stay around for along time.