Cold Spell Discussion

[Supercell]

I guess no-one knows...

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat - Monthly CET from the earliest record to the present.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt - Monthly CET rankings.

[Richard Lake]

Cheers Supercell, thought I'd never get the answer. I'll bookmark them straight rightaway. :)

Edited January 21, 2010 by rikki

[Richard Lake]

Cool, one thing I can tell straightaway is that it is a myth that February is the coldest month of the year when it fact its January.

[Supercell]

Cool, one thing I can tell straightaway is that it is a myth that February is the coldest month of the year when it fact its January.

Yes, I think that perception comes from the recent run (four of the last five years) of milder Januarys.

Just to add that my monthly mean recordings are usually similar to that of the eventual Hadley CET figure. 0.8C is the current Jan 2010 mean for my location. Hadley CET for December was 3.1C and my mean was 3.0C.

Edited January 21, 2010 by Supercell

[cyclonic happiness]

It seems ever so quiet all across the threads over the past week???

Do you think we have got "cold" poisoning? or something?

[Snowyowl9]

Snowiest months of the year in recent years I`ve find since 1987 are.

February.

March.

december.

April.

January.

november.

May.

october.

This year that goes to January at the top of the list knocking last february snowy spell for six.

[Supercell]

It seems ever so quiet all across the threads over the past week???

Do you think we have got "cold" poisoning? or something?

It's the calm before the storm... everyone is waiting for the tentative signs of a cold spell to become the reality again. The anticipation is building.

[Richard Lake]

The met is in full agreement with the ecm expect a upgrade to widespread sleet snow showers on north sea coasts becoming persistant at times sunday night.

Don't wanna be greedy but I don't want Showers I want prolonged snowfall not something that stops and starts every 15-30mins or last just a couple hours. Thats all we have had this winter; Showers - hardly historic. *thinks about the Will 2010 be an Historic Winter? thread*.. no not unless there is sustained snowfall.

Edited January 21, 2010 by rikki

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Don't wanna be greedy but I don't want Showers I want prolonged snowfall not something that stops and starts every 15-30mins or last just a couple hours. Thats all we have had this winter; Showers - hardly historic. *thinks about the Will 2010 be an Historic Winter? thread*.. no not unless there is sustained snowfall.

We have seen more snow this winter than the previous 5 years or so which is quite good. If snow showers are on offer next week I'd take it, beats the usual mild muck we normally get. Latest bbc forecast for the weekend looked quite wintery.

[rbw]

Interesting data there - it certainly explains why my recollection of winters of my late teens (1977 to 1981) was one of cold weather

R

[Richard Lake]

It's the calm before the storm... everyone is waiting for the tentative signs of a cold spell to become the reality again. The anticipation is building.

You mean like.. a Supercell.

[Bobby]

Cool, one thing I can tell straightaway is that it is a myth that February is the coldest month of the year when it fact its January.

Well it depends where you are, I recall for more coastal influenced areas February is often the coldest month as the sea temperatures are lower in Feb than January.

Edited January 21, 2010 by Barb-

[D KARLSON]

When it comes down to it computer models are just a tool. There always has be to someone human at the end. For now anyway So lets hope the humans are right.

True!!!! Antway METO have now jumped on the band wagon and has gone for another cold outbreak after next wednesday certainly alot more in store this winter.

True!!!! Antway METO have now jumped on the band wagon and has gone for another cold outbreak after next wednesday certainly alot more in store this winter.

Have not bothered posting for almost a year now ,but now seems like a good time as there does seem to be some potential in the synoptics for shall we say some locally heavy falls of snow , especially for southeastern england and even some southern coastal counties could get in on the action.

OVERVIEW ; As we go into sunday night the wind swings to the east and we start to pick up wintry showers particularly eastern scotland north east england ,at this time any settling snow should be confined to hills ,but this should descend to low ground by morning.

MONDAY ;By this time all eastern areas will be affected by these showers and they should move a good way in land ,how heavy and how wintry seems to be the big question mark and hence this post, there does seem to be potential for development of some heavier snow moving in as this very cold air is tapped into across eastern germany ;-13 Berlin; this cold air is sucked in and crosses the north sea and could well develop some mesoscale features with the contrast in sea air temps very high.

There certainly seems some potential in my view although the beeb wont bother to mention any potentially heavier snow showers till closer to the time ,but this is one to keep an eye on and the kink in the isobars that cosses the south east on monday could be the catalyst for some heavy snow !!!!!

[D KARLSON]

Just picked up the BEEBs forecast and they are now going for the easterly with snow showers and temps of zero and below by next wednesday daytime that is ,all fun anyway im sure youd agree

[Optimus Prime]

Since when did the BBC go 5-days ahead in their ordinary national forecast? Unless they've rescheduled their coutryfile forecast.

[NW Leeds Russ]

Since when did the BBC go 5-days ahead in their ordinary national forecast? Unless they've rescheduled their coutryfile forecast.

Yeh saw it too.

They were just showing the temperature trend up to and including Wednesday.

had maxima of 0c for most of N England.

We'll see......

[MR EXTREMES]

yep its clear now we can diss count any wintry stuff next week and beyond.

i think its safe to say winter is over i dont think the ecm is worth looking at because theres cleary something happening upstream so i to am not intrested any futher.

infact id go as far to say,

id like a roaring alantic back theres nothing exciting inregards to cold.

but that does not mean this winter was not exciting it was excellent.

any signs that show cold are weak amd untrust worthy,

then again any signs of mild are untrust worthy aswell.

but id take frosty nights dry days aswell i think this is likely next week there after is anyones guess but colder not likely.

[Ben_Cambs]

yep its clear now we can diss count any wintry stuff next week and beyond.

i think its safe to say winter is over i dont think the ecm is worth looking at because theres cleary something happening upstream so i to am not intrested any futher.

infact id go as far to say,

id like a roaring alantic back theres nothing exciting inregards to cold.

but that does not mean this winter was not exciting it was excellent.

any signs that show cold are weak amd untrust worthy,

then again any signs of mild are untrust worthy aswell.

but id take frosty nights dry days aswell i think this is likely next week there after is anyones guess but colder not likely.

Not true, there is wintry potential for Eastern Counties on Monday especially, and ECM is one model and not always right. To rule out another cold spell this winter is not a good thing to do, there is still plenty of time this winter for another coldspell....

[Costa Del Fal]

yep its clear now we can diss count any wintry stuff next week and beyond.

i think its safe to say winter is over i dont think the ecm is worth looking at because theres cleary something happening upstream so i to am not intrested any futher.

infact id go as far to say,

id like a roaring alantic back theres nothing exciting inregards to cold.

How on earth can you say winter is over on January 22nd! It was only in 2007 when we had some snow in Easter (April!).

So much can happen yet and to say winter is over is like saying summer will finish on August 15th.

[Mark Bayley]

How on earth can you say winter is over on January 22nd! It was only in 2007 when we had some snow in Easter (April!).

So much can happen yet and to say winter is over is like saying summer will finish on August 15th.

Hes been saying winters over for the past few months! I have noticed that when ever hes negative the models come out good So it might be form of reverse phycology To be fair he is right that models are not great, compared to what we have seen (widespread snow). However another wintry spell is more than possible. Even if its just cold and dry!

Edited January 22, 2010 by mark bayley

[keithlucky]

Not true, there is wintry potential for Eastern Counties on Monday especially, and ECM is one model and not always right. To rule out another cold spell this winter is not a good thing to do, there is still plenty of time this winter for another coldspell....

Agreee monday night looks interesting in east anglia area.

[LomondSnowstorm]

yep its clear now we can diss count any wintry stuff next week and beyond.

i think its safe to say winter is over i dont think the ecm is worth looking at because theres cleary something happening upstream so i to am not intrested any futher.

infact id go as far to say,

id like a roaring alantic back theres nothing exciting inregards to cold.

but that does not mean this winter was not exciting it was excellent.

any signs that show cold are weak amd untrust worthy,

then again any signs of mild are untrust worthy aswell.

but id take frosty nights dry days aswell i think this is likely next week there after is anyones guess but colder not likely.

Jeez, it's the middle of winter, there's a slight easterly developing followed potentially by some kind of northerly and we're still not even into February! You posted a 'winter is over' post in September and look what happened then! Most of our snow in previous years has arrived in February and early March and I see no reason why we can't get at least a bit more snow!

[keithlucky]

Congrats to michael fish forecaste he said a easterley would develope and it will ,nobody seem to agree with him kept on about swesterlies bartlett highs, cant beat age and experience lol.

[damianslaw]

Congrats to michael fish forecaste he said a easterley would develope and it will ,nobody seem to agree with him kept on about swesterlies bartlett highs, cant beat age and experience lol.

Michael Fish in his Thursday forecast last week showed an easterly for yesterday instead we had a south easterly and the atlantic crashing through overnight, so his forecast in this sense was wrong. He was right though with the eventual trend for later this week, just a bit progressive with the easterly in terms of timing.

[patrickshere]

Haha, for the first time ever in winter I don't actually care what happens. I'd quite like some sunshine actually, maybe a bit of frost. We had so much snow over christmas etc that I'm not bothered if we don't see any until next year.