Cold Spell Discussion

[keithlucky]

The fax should be interesting for wednesday there will be an east wind going by that as the low undercuts -3c upper air about here.

Even GFS shows below 0c upper air now down to -4c in the east.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn722.png

It won`t last long but it`s better than nothing,keep the snow going that bit longer.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn7817.png

Nobody forecaste snow for s wales wednesday but thats what they saying ,seems like everybody playing down wednesday snow but all of a sudden snow causing traffic problems is a possibility .

[Snowyowl9]

Fax chart for wednesday.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2.gif

If we have yet another snow day I`ve lost count this winter without looking.

[Terminal Moraine]

Fax chart for wednesday.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2.gif

If we have yet another snow day I`ve lost count this winter without looking.

I was just looking through the model discussion thread S.O9 and came across some charts for Dec' 1988 you'd posted and that you'd be interested to know how much snow I had on that date

The answer is, none at all. We had nothing more than sleet early and later on the 2nd and nothing at all on the 3rd so it must have been an event well to the west of here. The 3rd though did give us the only air frost in that month with a pitiful low of -0.3c.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think Snowyowl9 mentioned that he was in east Scotland somewhere on the 2nd December 1988 (I may be remembering wrongly, but that's always been my impression). In that case it could have either been a stalling front, or organised showers from the easterly flow.

[keithlucky]

With 1 to 2 c forecaste for wednesday i cant understand where that low temps comes from for wednesday .

[J10]

Nobody forecaste snow for s wales wednesday but thats what they saying ,seems like everybody playing down wednesday snow but all of a sudden snow causing traffic problems is a possibility .

I don't think we will be effected this week to be honest, but perhaps more upland parts of Wales would be at greater risk especially in Mid and North Wales.

[keithlucky]

Fair point im looking at 6c all of a sudden 1to 2c is mentioned.

Edited January 17, 2010 by keithlucky

[Tim Bland]

Updated country tracks forecast can be viewed here http://www.youtube.com/user/terratec365 As expected after the latest fax it upgrades the snow risk for Weds (m4 North) 10cm for midlands mentioned. It also shows rain preceeded by snow on Thurs. A bit mre resistance from the block and Thurs could be upgraded in the near future - one to watch.

[Ben_Cambs]

Updated country tracks forecast can be viewed here http://www.youtube.c...ser/terratec365 As expected after the latest fax it upgrades the snow risk for Weds (m4 North) 10cm for midlands mentioned. It also shows rain preceeded by snow on Thurs. A bit mre resistance from the block and Thurs could be upgraded in the near future - one to watch.

Hopefully PPN will be upgraded for our part of the UK over the next couple of days, but this will be a very short lived event

Using the GFS 12z run, this is where I see the line for rain and snow is likely to be, left side of the red being rain/sleet, the right side being sleet/snow, and right of the grey line is where PPN is unlikely to get past

Edited January 17, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Tim Bland]

Hopefully PPN will be upgraded for our part of the UK over the next couple of days, but this will be a very short lived event

Using the GFS 12z run, this is where I see the line for rain and snow is likely to be, left side of the red being rain/sleet, the right side being sleet/snow, and right of the grey line is where PPN is unlikely to get past

The precipitation will pass west to east and effect all areas. There is a possibility that it will stall over central areas and then fizzle out as it moves East. This Weds will be very similar to last Weds! I think higher ground using a direct line from the isle of weight up to the Scotish boarder will see the the most (up to 15cm). Cambs at this point will only see the leftovers and Herts will be hit and miss.

[Ben_Cambs]

The precipitation will pass west to east and effect all areas. There is a possibility that it will stall over central areas and then fizzle out as it moves East. This Weds will be very similar to last Weds! I think higher ground using a direct line from the isle of weight up to the Scotish boarder will see the the most (up to 15cm). Cambs at this point will only see the leftovers and Herts will be hit and miss.

Ahh yes, but no snow was forecast here last Wednesday, but it upgraded massivly nearer the time. We could still see something from this

[Jason T]

I don't really see that Shiver. The METO are looking at an undercutting scenario, so that areas that do see snow will have to see rain first and the front will be weakening anyway. Some snow for the highest ground is possible but I would be surprised if anywhere saw anything like 10cm.

Anything is possible at the moment, and from looking at the models etc, I am quite confident in that bbc weather presenter who stated 7 days ago that this mild front was never going to take a grip as the cold east was like concrete and would push it out over nw,ireland way then it was to reinstate itself over us for a long period.

Edited January 17, 2010 by silver line

[derrylynne]

I don't really see that Shiver. The METO are looking at an undercutting scenario, so that areas that do see snow will have to see rain first and the front will be weakening anyway. Some snow for the highest ground is possible but I would be surprised if anywhere saw anything like 10cm.

Yes have to agree with you on that one. I will be surprised if snow falls in the South East for instance on low ground. In fact I would think it will be high ground only this time. And then turn back to rain. We will see...

[Jason T]

Big Freeze: Ice And Snow Loom After Thaw

1:17pm UK, Sunday January 17, 2010

Huw Borland, Sky News Online

Britain's big freeze looks set to continue with more snow showers on the way within days, forecasters have said.

[Eugene]

The cold continues in darkness hours anyway.

Already at 10 30 pm we have three 0C's on the map, we have over 9 hours of cooling left too, many peoples central heating will not be getting a rest this week at night apart from thursday night.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgiaktgraph?ART=karte&LANG=en&JJ=2010&MM=01&TT=17&TIME=2230&TYP=temperatur&KEY=MID&TIME=1263768106

[yamkin]

Anything is possible at the moment, and from looking at the models etc, I am quite confident in that bbc weather presenter who stated 7 days ago that this mild front was never going to take a grip as the cold east was like concrete and would push it out over nw,ireland way then it was to reinstate itself over us for a long period.

MOD's, Slightly off topic, but the famous Michael Fish said that the cold block will form and he is correct. I take my hat off to him for his Netweather forecast.

[La Bise]

Still plenty of snow left to play with if you know where to look for (tip - you need to go up ):

[Don]

Just seen the latest BBC forecast and they are now showing temperatures of 4C for the south east on Wednesday, whereas on the Countryfile forecast earlier, they were showing temps of just 1 or 2! So, at the moment certainly nothing to get excited about from a IMBY perspective. However, as others have said, still some time for upgrades. Not overly optermistic though.

Edited January 17, 2010 by Don

[snowmadchrisuk]

The Metoffice have moved there Snow line further West , and has changed my area in the East midlands to Sleet or Snow only on hills, I think I will just look out the window the way the Metoffice has been lately . Even the BBC is thinking about dropping them in favour of Metra when there contract expires later this year.

The article is on the link below.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/7010864/Met-Office-could-be-dropped-by-BBC-after-weather-blunders.html

[farmer2555]

i live in the south west near yeovil temps of 6deg at night and around 10 during day time cant see the cold cominn back here v quick

[Osbourne One-Nil]

The snow finally went from the garden yesterday (well, almost all of it) bringing to an end the 31 consecutive days of complete snow cover. It also rose to 6.7C which was the highest temperature since December 9th, and helping to rise my current monthly mean temperature to -2.2C

[Coast]

Still enough snow on the South Downs over Eastbourne to have a snowball fight yesterday. The dew pond was frozen over but starting to thaw and there are huge mounds of ugly grey slush mixed with grit everywhere.

[snowmadchrisuk]

i live in the south west near yeovil temps of 6deg at night and around 10 during day time cant see the cold cominn back here v quick

Personally I am enjoying the rest from all the ICE , although it was the worst cold spell for 30 years , my area got very little Snow over all, less than 5cm and we only got that due to sheer dumb luck as one of the fronts did something that it wasn't expected to.

[Optimus Prime]

http://www.telegraph...r-blunders.html

I don't blame them really. The BBCs reputation was also scarred somewhat from another organisations failings. I'm surprised they didn't get in contact with other well known weather organisations...

[SnowBear]

From that Telegraph article..

However, it received fierce criticism last year when it predicted a "barbecue summer" ahead of a prolonged periods of rain. It has admitted that its annual global mean forecast for temperatures had on average been 0.05C (0.09F) too warm, although it says this is within the margin of error.

I mean, wow, 0.05...that's to two decimal places, isn't that good enough for a yearly prediction? A half of a tenth of a degree.

Sorry, I think there are far more important things to worry about than such a small margin as that.