Cold Spell Discussion

[damianslaw]

News 24....Rob McElwee has just said that it will be cold next week.

Yes cold is probably the best word to describe the trend for early next week, however, note he just said cold, not very cold.. cold means below average which at this time of year normally equates to maxes between about 2 and 4 degrees, so not necessarily wintry. I much prefer to hear the two words very cold than cold, but at least those words mild are not being bounded about, hardly heard them all winter when describing the outlook and not once 'staying mild' long may it continue.

[yamkin]

News 24....Rob McElwee has just said that it will be cold next week.

Sky News are saying that it will turn remarkably colder from Sunday with snow in the the East.

[Thunder Snow]

Forecast updated guys.

[Eugene]

I am astounded by some peoples posts, a slack continental flow is excellent for cold weather with severe night frosts, if that's not cold then obviously only one type of weather makes you happy(snow) and that is something rare in the UK so move.

[La Bise]

Very well said Eugene. This snow fetish is a bit childish really, the most important component of winter is cold, snow is just a bonus.

[Bobby]

Very well said Eugene. This snow fetish is a bit childish really, the most important component of winter is cold, snow is just a bonus.

That's your opinion, not a fact.

[loopydreamer]

i love to see extreme snow fall but i hate cold weather!

if there is good potential for snow coming up i will gladly endure the cold to see it! but cold dry weather?? how boring!!!!!

my dad loves the dry cold weather, i just feel miserable when im having to wear hundreds of jumpers to stay warm!

.......and thats my opinion!

i think its very rude to call people childish for loving the snow! ridiculous comment! i have a snow fetish! Dont u dare call me childish again!!!!!!!!!

Edited January 21, 2010 by loopydreamer

[Tom D]

I think what the models are showing us is EXACTLY what Accuweather's JB has been saying for a while now, quoted below from his most recent blog post.

The January thaw is here and it will stay for a while. Now I dont know if you are hearing the same cries there that I hear from some sources in the states where we are in a thaw for the next 6-10 days before a harsh February descends , but there are folks saying.. aha see that its getting mild. The fact is the areas targeted for the cold winter in Europe and England and France were on the western side of this, have had the coldest start in over 20 years. That is the fact. It is not a mild winter, nor will it be a mild winter. The cold is retreating into its core area of our winter forecast and will reside there for 10-15 days. However if one goes back and looks at the idea I had, including my critics, you will find that we expected the core of the cold to be to the east and east southeast of england. So back and forth battles were going to occur between the air masses from the east and onslaught of maritime air, which of course brings more normal and even warmer than normal conditions. But winter is not over yet. The WORST is probably over in England and France, because the CORE of the worst is supposed to be to the east and southeast... back and forth means snow and cold but also that it can warm..

I trust this guy after what he predicted for this winter as a whole back in September, and I trust him now. There is cold over Europe and we're in (for some people) an agonising situation where it is so close, yet so far. The models will tease cold-lovers with charts which bring a strong easterly or northerly over us. I'm sure some will see snow again (yesterday for example the south and west had some snow) but as for countrywide snow events, based on what this guy says, I don't think we'll see one again this winter.

February could turn out to be around average in CET terms, don't expect any severe cold or any particularly mild periods.

[La Bise]

Without cold, there is no snow Barb, I'd argue that makes cold the prime component of a good winter.

You are taking this every so slightly too seriously loopy...

[shuggee]

I think what the models are showing us is EXACTLY what Accuweather's JB has been saying for a while now, quoted below from his most recent blog post.

I trust this guy after what he predicted for this winter as a whole back in September, and I trust him now. There is cold over Europe and we're in (for some people) an agonising situation where it is so close, yet so far. The models will tease cold-lovers with charts which bring a strong easterly or northerly over us. I'm sure some will see snow again (yesterday for example the south and west had some snow) but as for countrywide snow events, based on what this guy says, I don't think we'll see one again this winter.

February could turn out to be around average in CET terms, don't expect any severe cold or any particularly mild periods.

The problem with him is that he says this every year.

If I was to stand at the end of my street I say the next car will be red, eventually I will be right.

There are quite a few folk who use this technique - forgetting that some of us actually remember. Which actually means they are the ones who are disrespectful thinking we would be stupid enough to fall for their cries of cold yet again. I find this rude and insulting.

[Tom D]

The problem with him is that he says this every year.

If I was to stand at the end of my street I say the next car will be red, eventually I will be right.

There are quite a few folk who use this technique - forgetting that some of us actually remember. Which actually means they are the ones who are disrespectful thinking we would be stupid enough to fall for their cries of cold yet again. I find this rude and insulting.

Admittedly I hadn't heard of this guy before this year, and I've heard about the sea-gull theory. I still think the models are teasing us and will do for a while.

[kippure]

Can any one tell why the birds are building there nests already? Ive never seen such a rush to build nests. Is it a sign of something?

[CLH the red dragon]

That's your opinion, not a fact.

It's a fact that cold is much more likely to bring snow.

[Tom D]

Can any one tell why the birds are building there nests already? Ive never seen such a rush to build nests. Is it a sign of something?

On the topic of nature - I remember seeing daffodils popping up out of the ground before we took our Christmas decorations down on a number of occasions, yet 3 weeks into January there's still no sign of them in our front garden which is usually covered in them. Can't blame 'em really.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Very well said Eugene. This snow fetish is a bit childish really, the most important component of winter is cold, snow is just a bonus.

Well, overly serious over-reactions or no, that post does come across as being a bit intolerant of other views, especially when snow lovers are very used to being dubbed "childish" by the media in particular, and so are more likely to jump on that kind of thing.

There are many reasons for some members being a lot more enthusiastic about snow than about cold, including the picturesque aspects, the ability to play out in it, and the meteorology of it (for example I always find it pretty exciting when we get big cumulonimbus cells and associated sharp snow showers generated over the North Sea).

Is cold more likely to bring snow? Only up to a point, because snow requires two variables- cold and precipitation, and you aren't going to get snow if it's cold and dry. Mr_Data often points out that the winter of 1993/94 was widely snowier than that of 1963/64 despite being milder, and the "Operation Snowdrop" winter of 1954/55, despite being one of the snowiest of the twentieth century, was only 1C short of the 1971-2000 average.

Personally I find cold "anticyclonic gloom" and stable easterly regimes with a thick layer of stratus every bit as depressing as mild dull drizzly tropical maritime airmasses from the Atlantic.

[La Bise]

I'm quite a big fan of snow myself, let's be clear about that. I'm also a dedicated hiker and deep winter conditions up the hills are the money-shot of my entire hiking year...

You should read the argument I got into on another forum about this winter when I was more or less accused of being tacitly in favour of economic ruin for the country, oldies starving at home, poor people being stuck in cold flats and increase in accidents due to my enthusiastic discussions about this great winter so far, the intense cold, the magic of snow, etc...

Totaly agree that cold is not an harbinger of snow per se but without a baseline that is close to what everybody except hardy Scandinavian and Canadian types would define as "cold" then ppn will be nothing but rain.

Anticyclonic gloom is the default setting of winter in my home town and it's not particularly exciting, to say the least but I still favour a colder type of weather to, yet again, some damp and windy stuff. That is indeed personnal, I just like wrapping up in winter and being in absolutely no doubt it is indeed winter and not a particularly bad day in June (as was the case in 2006 and 2007).

[Thundery wintry showers]

You should read the argument I got into on another forum about this winter when I was more or less accused of being tacitly in favour of economic ruin for the country, oldies starving at home, poor people being stuck in cold flats and increase in accidents due to my enthusiastic discussions about this great winter so far, the intense cold, the magic of snow, etc...

Totaly agree that cold is not an harbinger of snow per se but without a baseline that is close to what everybody except hardy Scandinavian and Canadian types would define as "cold" then ppn will be nothing but rain.

Ouch- that first paragraph is the kind of thing I can't stand, and I think our wonderful (not) media actively encourages those attitudes. Everything gets mesaured in economic terms with some Health & Safety considerations thrown in there, and we just aren't 'supposed' to think in terms of asthetic and recreational benefits of the weather. Regarding the second paragraph, we do, indeed, increasingly rely upon very cold synoptics to deliver snow events as "average" stuff just means rain, but I don't think it's an argument for considering cold more important than snow. It depends on whether you like cold without snow, which is something that varies from individual to individual.

Anticyclonic gloom is the default setting of winter in my home town and it's not particularly exciting, to say the least but I still favour a colder type of weather to, yet again, some damp and windy stuff. That is indeed personnal, I just like wrapping up in winter and being in absolutely no doubt it is indeed winter and not a particularly bad day in June (as was the case in 2006 and 2007).

There's no problem there at all, you are perfectly entitled to your own preferences!

[Bobby]

It's a fact that cold is much more likely to bring snow.

If one likes snow one then one inherently likes cold as well, as no cold, no snow. So it's pretty redundant to say that we need cold first.

[La Bise]

I direct you towards the post by Loopydreamer Barb, you'll notice she can't stand cold, only snow...

Not the first poster on here to express a liking for snow but a dislike for dry cold I might add.

[CLH the red dragon]

If one likes snow one then one inherently likes cold as well, as no cold, no snow. So it's pretty redundant to say that we need cold first.

Yet you continue to desire both at the same time, all of the time. Patience.

[john mac]

I hope we do get that northerly, we might get a shot at some frontal snow covering most of the country again.

[john mac]

If the easterly was upgraded would we get a chance of shortwaves undercutting the block as it moves westwards?

[john mac]

I see what you mean there, though another scenario like what happened on Easter Day 2008, the displacement of the PV into Scandi is really going to be interesting for model watching

i agree with you, i think a lot of people are underestimating the potential for next week and beyond.

[Richard Lake]

Where can I find the CET records/archives? Ya know the ones going back 100s years.

Ppl keep posting if X comes off it will be colder CET than year Y. Is there a central place this info is kept?

Edited January 21, 2010 by rikki

[Richard Lake]

I guess no-one knows...