Cold Spell Discussion

[keithlucky]

Just seen country file forecaste looks good for east central uk friday saturday fair bit of snow around, western uk not so good with a LP sitting in he irish sea dragging a a more of a nw flow resulting in more sleet than snow initially until the wind changes more to a northley flow.

Edited January 24, 2010 by keithlucky

[Ben_Cambs]

I think there will be a massive increase in traffic to the forum over the next few days! Exciting prospects ahead for the Northerly, and potential reload aswell

[shadowfax]

could be a snow event tonight, mainly on high ground in the north, 528 dam and 850's around -5c with low ground temps im only 70m asl and its 2.5c dp point still high at 1.5c but could turn wintry if there is any heavier bursts from the developing shallow low...

NW seen the potential with the current watch issued.

I can easily believe this, as I look out of the window at the moment the snow content of the rain comes and goes depending on the intensity.

Shadowfax

[kippure]

SUNDAY NOON LONDON TIME <P itxtvisited="1">Winter spreads back west <P itxtvisited="1"><P itxtvisited="1">If one looks at the London-Berlin example I was using as a contributor to the global temp challenge of Jan 1-10, we find the idea of a return to normalcy posted here a couple of weeks ago was right. The first 15 days of the month ran 7.5 below normal, by far the most widespread cold in populated areas of northern Europe for this harsh part of winter since the 80s. The last 8 days have seen Berlin stay in the cold, and this is what I had said, the further east you went the more the cold would hold... they have been -6.5 SEVERE COLD is taking hold over Germany. However London is 1.6 above normal since Jan 16. <P itxtvisited="1">The cold is getting ready to expand west again! <P itxtvisited="1">So folks in the battle of Britain and France that at least has allowed winter to let up a bit here ( mind you the "thaw" is to around normal and part of the winter forecast... that cold centered over the east and maritime air masses would do battle) is going to come to a crashing end later this week. And while when its all said and done the CORE OF COLD WILL BE WHERE IT WAS IN 02-03 its simply that this winter is even colder than that one for the areas targeted. <P itxtvisited="1">Now you want to see a real thaw... and by the way winter is returning to the states also, look at the Us contributors to this: Chicago and NYC the first 15 days of the month...-3.9. Since then: PLUS 8.4 So they got a major break but winter is about to close in on them also. <P itxtvisited="1">So make sure the winter woolies are ready anew... its coming later this week ciao for now

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Just been for a walk in some horrid, heavy, wet snow. At 2.6º and a dew point of 1.8º, I was quite surprised.

[J10]

I've noticed the BBC have been forcasting the cold weather to return for a couple of weeks now, but so far nothing has materialized. Looking at the Ceefax forcasts for Europe, there does seem to be some really cold weather not that far away, with eastern europe being particularly cold. It'll be interesting to see what the BBC's forcast for the week ahead say this morning.

Anyone know what's happened to ITV teletext weather (both digital and analogue ?). The weather section appears to have vanished (along with most of the rest of the service).

I know that has already been dealt with elsewhere, but Teletext, the text service on ITV has ended transmission of the majority of its services, simply because it was unprofitable, Other profitable services such as the Teletext Holidays services remain.

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/digitaltv/news/a191640/teletext-switches-off-early-around-the-uk.html

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/broadcasting/news/a165453/teletext-to-shut-down-in-2010.html

Just seen country file forecaste looks good for east central uk friday saturday fair bit of snow around, western uk not so good with a LP sitting in he irish sea dragging a a more of a nw flow resulting in more sleet than snow initially until the wind changes more to a northley flow.

Indeed the further west the High Pressure, the less marginal conditions will be in western areas such as Wales.

[fine wine]

Does anyone know why we aren't seeing any snow associated with this precipitation today when we have uppers around -5 - 6c, a current temp (here anyway) of 2.2c and and dew point of -0.5c ? We had snow the other day with a temp pf 3.3c, uppers of -1c and a dew point of +1c

[Ben_Cambs]

Quote from The Weather Outlook:

The early part of the week will be mostly dry as high pressure allows cold air from the continent to feed in across Britain. During the middle of the week a change will happen, with high pressure beginning to build to the west of the country. This will open the gate for cold arctic air to plunge down from the north. The northerly air stream looks set to be quite unstable, and this will trigger the development of sleet or snow showers in eastern coastal counties by Thursday. There's also the possibility of more widespread sleet or snow crossing parts of Britain for a time. By next weekend bright and dry weather looks likely, although it will still be rather cold. We're keeping a close eye on developments during the second week of February, with the possibility of very cold weather and heavy snow returning for the middle of the month.

(Relating to GFS in Deep Deep FI I think, which shows a Beasterly)

Edited January 24, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Peter Henderson]

Just seen country file forecaste looks good for east central uk friday saturday fair bit of snow around, western uk not so good with a LP sitting in he irish sea dragging a a more of a nw flow resulting in more sleet than snow initially until the wind changes more to a northley flow.

Indeed, BBC didn't hold out much hope for anything in the west. RTE was a bit more optomistic though. However, the weather information site:

http://www.ukweather.freeserve.co.uk/nwp.htm

Is predicting a topling high with any northerly only lasting a couple of days at the most and a return to westerlies/southwesterlies for the following week with what looks like the dreaded Bartlett high making a comeback. Looks like winter is all but over.

[shotski]

Off topic but what is two

[Ben_Cambs]

Indeed, BBC didn't hold out much hope for anything in the west. RTE was a bit more optomistic though. However, the weather information site:

http://www.ukweather...e.co.uk/nwp.htm

Is predicting a topling high with any northerly only lasting a couple of days at the most and a return to westerlies/southwesterlies for the following week with what looks like the dreaded Bartlett high making a comeback. Looks like winter is all but over.

Nope, a couple of the models show the cold from the East making a comeback in FI

[Ben_Cambs]

Off topic but what is two

The Weather Outlook. Another weather website/forum

Edited January 24, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Richard Lake]

Another weather forum.

Well it seems the other thread 'Model Chat and Moods' is no longer being used so perhaps I'll post in here. My AccuWeather Widget says snow for my location tomorrow and no longer 11c on Wednesday (crazy), but 6C. So snow chance tomorrow or not?

Edited January 24, 2010 by rikki

[Jason T]

http://www.jp2webdes.../two/ensembles/

Yamkin, Models been very impressive and i agree. Cant wait till the next set shortly.

Just pulled this from sky. HMMMMMMM

No Weather Warnings

Sarah Pennock January 24, 2010 9:06 AM

• Recommend post (11)

This is the second morning in weeks that I have come into work and read through the data to find there are no weather warnings issued by the Met Office for today and the next four or five days right across the UK.

Welcome news indeed.

Infact the weather will remain quiet for central southern Britain for atleast this coming week. That does mean many of us will wake to mist and fog patches, with some spots lingering beyond lunchtime.

The daytime temperatures will remain around four degrees in northern parts and slightly milder in the south, peaking at seven or eight degrees. The best of any sunshine will be in the west.

After such a long cold and wintry spell that brought so much disruption to transport, businesses, schools etc this weeks forecast is no doubt received with a sigh of relief. But I have a confession. It makes life a little less interesting or challenging for me when there's not alot happening.

I shall have to start looking up the sea temperatures, or tell you about the tropical depression plaguing northern Australia, or find a laymans explanation for 'mature' fog.

Check out your weather online or hit the red button.

[shiver]

Don't bother going on TWO it's only one better than BBC's snow watch with lots of "is it going to snow in Carlisle" posts!

Pennines and North york moors maybee. There is lots of Precip around at the moment with temps at 3c and dew point around +2

http://www.meteociel...40&mode=4&map=0

ECM resets to zonal but the low slips SE and then South. Scandi high then expoldes and we are back with N / NE flow possibly even an easterly which is similar to what the GEFS parralel run is showing. I wouldn't mind betting this is what we will be looking at on the 18z GFS operational as many of the ensembles have gone for this.

excuse me a lot of people on here go on two

[Peter Henderson]

Nope, a couple of the models show the cold from the East making a comeback in FI

Well, I haven't seen any models with an easterly either next weekend or next week. The BBC's digital text have snow for Belfast on Friday, and a max of plus 4. Rob McElwee did say it would be interesting at the end of the week but he's been saying that for several weeks now. Accu weather doesn't agree with the easterly either:

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast3.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=BT37 0UL&metric=1

with tepts in the really mild catagory next week.

Still, it could change. There's some very cold weather not that far away.

I'll wait with baited breath for the BBC's monthly outlook and the Met. Office's long range update tomorrow !

[ZONE 51]

looking increasingly likely were going to bring snow shrs inland at end of wk and into wkend

north sea ppn could turn thundery(trough) on saturday with a risk these coming onto coasts ?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Thundery activity down the North Sea in this kind of northerly airflow is not too unusual, though it is more common earlier in the season when the contrast between the cold air and warm sea is greater.

30 January 2003 produced thundersnow in some eastern parts of England in association with a trough and slight easterly component to the flow which brought snow showers well inland. Slightly later in the season, in Februarys 1999, 2004 and 2005 we had isolated reports of thundersnow from eastern parts of both England and Scotland during northerly outbreaks.

[WREXHAM]

Latest Faxes -

http://www.meteociel...h=72&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel...h=84&carte=2000

I like the Friday 00 chart, it shows 3 bads of precipitation. A good chance of many Central and Eastern areas having a covering on Friday.

Based on these I would expect forecasts to start talking up the snow risk for friday and even start issuing warnings.

Beyond, if you look at the ensembles they have been showing an easterly fron the 5th for days now. People only look at the operational but its been on its own for a while.

Metcheck have an advisory (sorry ) Im suprised the METO haven't issued at least an advisory yet based on this?!

[Southender]

Looks wet on Friday for most...

[Damp and dreary]

Looks wet on Friday for most...

Mmmm my favourite.

Latest Met office outlook update suggests some cold/winteryness but nothing too exiting, as ever still time to change!

[Polar Front]

Look East BBC just warned of the threat of "Significant" snowfall in the west of the Anglia region on Thursday night! Anyone care to comment on the fax chart at 72hrs?

[ZONE 51]

heres some meto charts for thursday night

[NorthantsSnow]

Norfolk is going to get hammered Monday into Tuesday if the GFS is right.

Prolonged snow showers, heavy at times. Potentially a very localised substantial snow event.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100126/12/147/ukprec.png

Back to Friday, the latest GFS is a non event for England and Wales below 600m. Reason is a more extensive milder sector associated with this LOW and the colder air takes longer to take hold. At the moment it's looking like a rain event but could still change.

http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20100126/12/66/uksnowdepth.png

I'm more inclined to believe it because it looks similar to this morning's UKMO 00z.

Edited January 26, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[andymusic]

OFF Topic - sorry mods - don't know if this is a pre cursor to more "cold" weather but we've had an amazing RED sunset sky tonight the like I've pretty much never seen before - bit like a martian sky - really weird! - could be a sign of the impending siberian cold to come!