Cold Spell Discussion

[Osbourne One-Nil]

......Waxings lyrical

Shouldn't that be Waxwings lyrical?

It's certainly felt like we've been under the influence of the Atlantic today, despite what some were saying yesterday.

[Snowyowl9]

Feels mild despite the wind now 4.4c max and a big thaw now well under way floods next,got use to the cold temps

[Geordiesnow]

One thing that is currently baffling me is the beeb predicting sleet/snow to be mixed in with the rain for tomorrow, i look at the uppers on both the UKMO/GFS and they are too mild for snow too fall. even mild lover Susan Powell said, "snow could even falls too lower levels before turning too sleet then eventually to rain". even the temps the BBC is predicting when having that tour around the UK look too high for snow to fall at lower levels.

I'll be surprised if we see many reports of sleet/snow being mixed in with the rain band apart from quite high ground.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Also regarding Glacier Point saying that a mild or even very February is likely from teleconnection signals is it true that he predicts a settled spell with HP just to the south of the UK with mild days but cold (and frosty!) nights would be more likely than raging zonality, would we be looking at a setup similar too February 2008 or late March 2009

If that comes off it all depends on where the high ends up and where your location is.

The mid February 2008 setup was caused by the high drifting a long way north resulting in southerlies and the cloudy damp Atlantic weather on its north-western flank being confined to a very limited area of the country. However when the high is to the south it usually results in sunshine for the SE and cloud and drizzle for northern and western districts- indeed, if it slips far south enough we get a Bartlett...

[cold snap]

Love to be in Germany.They seam to be in winter wonderland every winter

[Terminal Moraine]

Snow is forecast for the Peak District during the early hours of tomorrow morning and for a while after dawn but I really can't see it happening. The temp' here at 1800 was 3.4c and still rising and it seems very unlikely that with thick fog, an increasing southerly wind and a complete cloud cover it will fall sufficiently to allow snow by morning.

I'll take a look at the upper air charts to see if colder air is expected to be advected across us in advance of the front, but I'd have thought that would require the wind backing SE which isn't forecast to happen.

Hmm, just looked and there is a small parcel of upper air between 0 and 1c moving east just ahead of the front whereas at present we're in 3-4c air.

Just possible then I suppose but more likely above 450m.

Edited January 15, 2010 by Terminal Moraine

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well ian you did, a lot did not.

Never is a very long time, in this case never has been this year and to a lesser extent last year.

We have had high latitude blocking this winter, and who is to say it wont happen again this winter, or for that matter in the winters to come.

Maybe patterns have changed (again) <_<

To be fair this is the first PROPER winter since probably 1995/6.When i say proper i mean in the old school sense with an abundance of Northern blocking,yes last winter was cold up here generally but the synoptics this time round have seen stable Greeny blocking,and the GH has been virtually non existent for years,indeed some winters in the late 90's and 00's have seen little or no GH's.

It looks very much like both Dec and Jan will come in below average temps wise so no complaints even if it does go mild in feb.

The even larger teapot theory still holds some water but if we see another cold one next year i think its fair to say the phrase is dead in the water.

Edited January 15, 2010 by happy days

[La Bise]

I just hope that bloody rain calms down before it does too much damage to the snow cover higher up. There was such a dump it should last a bit longuer...

[dave79]

did anyone see the bbc 9:30 weather forecast then, the model showed high pressure come into the south east and calm sunday down, then come Monday the temps across the country will drop again, as the atlantic trys to sweep across the country it showed the uk map for a split second with snow falling, then It seemed to come to an abrupt end and he admitted forecasting the weather next week is going to be nearly impossible

Thats the strangest forecast I've seen on bbc1.

[Ben_Cambs]

I wish we had the continental climate that countries like Germany have. A winter wonderland in the Winter and hot in the Summer

[Bobby]

Wow, what a rapid thaw. We had most of our snow intact this morning, about 7 inches or so left. Now it's mainly green with only patchy slush. By tomorrow I expect there'll be practically nothing left except from where it's been shoveled up. That 10 inches sure vanished pretty fast.

The Atlantic is really back with vengeance.

[Optimus Prime]

Of course it's going to melt, it's above freezing! Ice melts when the air temperature increases above freezing. The snow all over the UK has been thawing slowly for some while now.

[waynetheweatherman]

The last month has been a great month for cold. However i often wonder if we will ever get a canadian/usa style snow storm where we get say 2 foot of snow in 24 hours, that would be cool?:)

[damianslaw]

The last month has been a great month for cold. However i often wonder if we will ever get a canadian/usa style snow storm where we get say 2 foot of snow in 24 hours, that would be cool?

2 foot snowfalls have fallen in the past, Okehampton in Devon saw 50cms not that far off 2 feet fall in 24 hours only last Feb I seem to recall.

However, in recent winters we have not seen many snowfalls deliver more than a foot (noted that some places last week saw over a foot though).

For 2 feet falls you either need a stalling front, slow moving low pressure and associated fronts or a very deeply disturbed convective easterly aiding those infamous streamers. Polar lows can deliver trifling amounts of snow, but they are rare beasts. Channel lows can deliver huge totals in southern parts. In the past warm fronts from the SW bumping into cold air have deliver 2 feet falls to much of the SW and S Wales, this occured in Feb 78.

[waynetheweatherman]

2 foot snowfalls have fallen in the past, Okehampton in Devon saw 50cms not that far off 2 feet fall in 24 hours only last Feb I seem to recall.

However, in recent winters we have not seen many snowfalls deliver more than a foot (noted that some places last week saw over a foot though).

For 2 feet falls you either need a stalling front, slow moving low pressure and associated fronts or a very deeply disturbed convective easterly aiding those infamous streamers. Polar lows can deliver trifling amounts of snow, but they are rare beasts. Channel lows can deliver huge totals in southern parts. In the past warm fronts from the SW bumping into cold air have deliver 2 feet falls to much of the SW and S Wales, this occured in Feb 78.

Cheers, i remember one in particaular cold spell where we had ice inside the house before double glazed days!, oh and wheelie bins!, 1991 we had deep snow, mustve been 18 inches or more here!

[Iceni]

Our snow's gone now too. But it's not particularly warm out there 2.3 ° C with a brisk SSE'ly wind. The cats were glad to be let in.

[Terminal Moraine]

The Met' Office may be right after all. There was heavy sleet falling when I got up at 6.15, this has now turned to moderate wet snow.

[Tucco]

2 foot snowfalls have fallen in the past, Okehampton in Devon saw 50cms not that far off 2 feet fall in 24 hours only last Feb I seem to recall.

However, in recent winters we have not seen many snowfalls deliver more than a foot (noted that some places last week saw over a foot though).

For 2 feet falls you either need a stalling front, slow moving low pressure and associated fronts or a very deeply disturbed convective easterly aiding those infamous streamers. Polar lows can deliver trifling amounts of snow, but they are rare beasts. Channel lows can deliver huge totals in southern parts. In the past warm fronts from the SW bumping into cold air have deliver 2 feet falls to much of the SW and S Wales, this occured in Feb 78.

The Okehampton figure of 55cm was achieved from several falls of snow. The figure has to be questioned anway, its not mention in the Meto review of the event.

The last single event 2ft fall was the S Scotland snowstorm of Feb 2001. The conditions were far more severe than anthing seen since.

50/60cm combined with subzero temps and winds up to 70 mph.

http://www.carnwath.org.uk/snow.html

Mark

[Ben_Cambs]

The Met have forecasted heavy snow for Wednesday :unsure:

[Sunlover]

The Met have forecasted heavy snow for Wednesday :unsure:

Any particular areas?

[Ben_Cambs]

Any particular areas?

Eastern counties of England, some places in East Midlands

[The PIT]

As in recent years the end of the cold spell has been rather meek in this area at least. Take away the freezing rain and it's followed the recent years trend of little in the way of frontal snow and slow gradual rise in temps. The battle with the huge high to the north east a surprising no contest once more as the battle switches to Europe. Very rapid loss of snow cover overnight measured 12cm yesterday today partial cover.

Still no heatwave on the way so Jan should come in as a notable cold month for once.

[dodge]

Very rapid thaw overnight, only stubborn little ice patches hanging on to grim death lol Nice to see a bit of greenery again, although the greyness of concrete paths, and tarmaced roads leaves a little to be desired. Although I expect those who hate driving in snow and ice, will be in their element today. The great movement of human life, returns to normal at least for the time being, in this little corner of the North West.

Edited January 16, 2010 by dodgeredee

[Bobby]

35mm of rain overnight, that obliterated any remaining snow.

[TonyH]

Wow, what a rapid thaw. We had most of our snow intact this morning, about 7 inches or so left. Now it's mainly green with only patchy slush. By tomorrow I expect there'll be practically nothing left except from where it's been shoveled up. That 10 inches sure vanished pretty fast.

The Atlantic is really back with vengeance.

Of course it's going to melt, it's above freezing! Ice melts when the air temperature increases above freezing. The snow all over the UK has been thawing slowly for some while now.

Thanks for that Barb, I was surprised to have lost 3 inches in less than a day, let alone 7 inches, and you are on higher ground too.

Indeed a slight thaw had been underway- but that was gradually reducing a thick covering that had transformed the landscape for almost a fortnight. To see that turn to green in a matter of hours was indeed a surprise, as I had expected a less mild incursion and a slower thaw. I find it hard to recall previous thaws of such speed in my lifetime, given such a pre-existing long-lived snow cover!